Worst-case scenario for House GOP is 72-seat wipeout

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

The best case for the GOP is losing 10 seats and the worst case is 72 seats.

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402329-worst-case-scenario-for-house-gop-is-70-seat-wipeout

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Junk model that assumes uniform swing from 2016 house results, ignoring changes in other factors.

[IceSpear]

Junk model that assumes uniform swing from 2016 house results, ignoring changes in other factors.

Yeah, the model is junk, but the range oddly sounds pretty accurate.

[UncleSam]

That’s like saying your model predicts from D+4 to R+6 in the senate. ‘Duh’. A 62 seat range is garbage.

[NewYorkExpress]

Democrats can pick up more than 72 seats in a perfect storm.

[wesmoorenerd]

Democrats can pick up more than 72 seats in a perfect storm.

The maximum in a mega-bluenami type scenario is low triple digits. Obviously not going to happen unless our country sees radical change in its fortune in the next two and a half months. I'm talking massive economic cratering, collusion conclusively demonstrated with a smoking gun, N-word tape drops type scenario. Let's say it looks something like this. Dems really can't do better than this even in a near-apocalyptic scenario, even a seat better than that is completely outside the realm of possibility. Not to imply that map is anywhere near likely, of course, but it's the maximum extreme in literally any scenario. Pretty much what I did was flipped every single seat that was listed as even the slightest bit competitive by any forecaster, every seat with a PVI below R+10 where the Dem raised at least $50K last quarter, and every seat where the Dem outraised the Rep by at least $10K. AKA a scenario that'll only ever happen in my dreams.

In a somewhat realistic scenario, I could see the Dems netting like 80-something seats. A lot would have to go wrong for the Republicans for that to happen, though.

The most likely result still ranges from 30 to 50.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Sounds about right to me, although I think their actual worst case scenario is a bit more severe than even this.

[Skill and Chance]

Sounds about right to me, although I think their actual worst case scenario is a bit more severe than even this.

If, say, a 58D/38R generic ballot actually happened, that would probably give Democrats 75% of the seats given the way most of the maps are drawn.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

[wesmoorenerd]

Best case scenario definitely includes Tom McClintock, Andy Harris, and Chris Collins losing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sounds about right to me, although I think their actual worst case scenario is a bit more severe than even this.

I agree, the possible gains for the Democrats have a very long "tail".  72 seats is probably around the 95% probability level.

[Bojack Horseman]

I try not to get too excited reading these types of articles because things always tend to regress to the mean, but anything 40+ is worth popping a bottle of champagne over.

[progressive85]

It's going to be so close that a LOT of people could get in.  I think there's a lot of 51-49 kinds of races where there's weeks of recounts and nailbiting.