MO-WPAIntel: Hawley +7

[KingSweden]

It's an R pollster, but still, McCaskill could lose. Toss-Up as usual.

Stop being so reasonable!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

J Rosen or Claire or Heidi can lose at this point.

[junior chįmp]

This is actually a poll of Hawleys volunteers

[Pollster]

Not a huge red flag, and its probably just statistical noise, but it seems strange to say the least that Hawley's name recognition has gone down since the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It is a red flag for Heidi, McCaskill and Rosen who all three are struggling in their races.

[jamestroll]

Hawley by 3.

Without greitens she never had a chance. Writing this one off.

[Pollster]

It is a red flag for Heidi, McCaskill and Rosen who all three are struggling in their races.

I was referring to red flags within the poll suggesting methodological/analytical doubts, not to the poll in general.

[BudgieForce]

Hawley by 3.

Without greitens she never had a chance. Writing this one off.

I hate Atlas sometimes.

[krazen1211]

Lean R.

[jamestroll]

Hawley by 3.

Without greitens she never had a chance. Writing this one off.

I hate Atlas sometimes.

It was a joke.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No.

[Ljube]

LOL!

Only +7 in a small sample internal?

I'd say lean McCaskill.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R.

It's a club for Growth Poll

[Pyro]

Tossup -> Safe D

[Senator Incitatus]

You can attack the credibility of this poll all you want but it still shows a 6 point movement towards Hawley and the democrats own internal poll shows the race moving 4 points towards Hawley.

The other poll wasn't a democrat internal. It was paid for by a newspaper.


But yeah, this poll isnt something to take much stalk in.

Amaizing take.

[BudgieForce]

You can attack the credibility of this poll all you want but it still shows a 6 point movement towards Hawley and the democrats own internal poll shows the race moving 4 points towards Hawley.

The other poll wasn't a democrat internal. It was paid for by a newspaper.


But yeah, this poll isnt something to take much stalk in.

Amaizing take.

Thank you. I'm here all night.

[OneJ]

LOL!

Only +7 in a small sample internal?

I'd say lean McCaskill.

Long time, no see... 

[Greatblueheron]

If McCaskill continues to trail this badly in the polls, I may have to shift her race from Tossup to Lean Republican.

[erſatz-york]

Tossup -> Safe D -> Titanium D

[Skill and Chance]

Likely D -> Safe R

Seriously though, maybe we were too quick to assume that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill?

This doesn't surprise me.  Donnelly 1. Has been more genuinely moderate than McCaskill and 2. Has a larger urban/high density suburban population in his state.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Here is an interesting explanation of this.  


https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/08/new-model-has-hawley-over-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate-race/#more-258261

New Model has Hawley Over McCaskill in Missouri Senate Race
Posted by Mary Chastain      Friday, August 24, 2018 at 11:00am

A new election model from a conservative polling group has Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley ahead of incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill, 53 to 47 percent. From The Washington Free Beacon:


The model, created by WPA Intelligence and shared with the Washington Free Beacon, was based on predictive data available for each of Missouri’s 4,101,062 registered voters and found Hawley to have a six-point advantage over McCaskill, 53 to 47 percent. The model uses available consumer data, voter history, and demographic information to assign each voter with a predictive score.


Among likely voters, the model categorized a roughly equal number of voters as leaning toward either candidate, with 609,694 voters rated “lean Hawley” and 589,849 as “lean McCaskill.” The model found Hawley’s advantage to be in voters who are firmly behind him, with 398,087 voters categorized as “likely Hawley” voters and only 311,750 categorized as “likely McCaskill” voters.

https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WPAi-MOSen.pdf

https://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/WPAi-MOSen.pdf

The Washington Free Beacon continued:

“Our latest ballot model demonstrates a significant raw advantage for Hawley among individual voters, and Missouri voters are primed to retire Claire McCaskill in favor of a senator who will represent their interests and values, not those of Chuck Schumer and the national Democrat Party,” said Brian Rodgers, executive director of Missouri Rising Action, a conservative group that commissioned the analysis.

“New reports about [Claire McCaskill] and her husband profiting millions from federal subsidies, taking advantage of tax loopholes, and using Cayman Island tax havens, are putting her record in full view for Missouri voters—and they want a change.”

WPA Intelligence said consumer data was available for 2,899,939 of these voters, and that vote history and demographic information were used to score the 1,201,123 voters without consumer data.

WPA Intelligence ran a poll for the Club for Growth Missouri a week ago and came back with similar results. That poll showed that Hawley’s support went up by 5 points from July to August and leads McCaskill 48 to 42 percent. The July poll had Hawley up 43 to 42 percent on McCaskill. Hawley also came out on top on the questions if voters have heard of both (49 to 43 percent) and have opinions on both (50 to 44 percent).

Other polls have basically shown Hawley-McCaskill tied. The Cook Political Report still has the race as a Toss-Up.

A poll from Missouri Scout that took place on August 8 and 9 has the candidates tied at 47% with 6% left undecided.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Missouri_Scout_August_2018.pdf

I’d also like to note that Hawley won the Missouri Bureau Straw Poll at the state fair on August 21. It’s unscientific, but as the bureau points out, McCaskill performed well in rural areas in the past:

With all this political buzz in Missouri simmering on the fairgrounds, Missouri Farm Bureau asked fairgoers to register their opinions in a straw poll. The 2,655 votes registered over the 11-day fair in mid-August picked Republican Attorney General Josh Hawley over Senator McCaskill, 72.8% to 27.2%.

This eye-popping 45.6-point margin showed stunningly strong support for Hawley. While many may attribute this margin to a more rural-leaning crowd at the fair, McCaskill has previously performed quite well in rural areas. In her last re-election in 2012, McCaskill actually won the areas outside Kansas City and St. Louis by about a 47% to 45% margin. Even her worst result out of Missouri’s 114 counties in 2012, Barton County, gave her 31% of the vote. No matter where 2018 straw poll voters came from, McCaskill’s performance may indicate a severe drop in support over the past six years that could be hard to overcome.

This sentiment did not come as a surprise to many farmers, however. Foreshadowing the straw poll’s lopsided margin, Missouri Farm Bureau members voted to endorse Hawley with a 93% vote at their August 10 endorsement session.

I look forward to some of you picking it apart.

Here is a link to the actual article that has additional points and charts.

https://legalinsurrection.com/2018/08/new-model-has-hawley-over-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate-race/#more-258261

[Ebsy]

So... uh.... this isn't even a poll?

[Arkansas Yankee]

So... uh.... this isn't even a poll?

I guess your right.  I confused it with what was a poll by I believe the same organization.   

What do the rest of you think of the analysis?  I am not promoting it I am just asking.

[President Johnson]

>Club for Growth

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This along with the democratic internal showing Hawley moving into a tie from 4 points would indicate that Hawley has a narrow lead and the race is moving in his direction. Hawley also can't be upset with the fact that Missouri polls tend to underestimate republicans, looks like claire will finally get to spend more time with her private jets

Well, for one thing, that wasn't a Democratic internal. Posters were wrong that it was a Republican internal, but it was from Missouri Scout, which as far as I can tell has no partisan allegiance.

As for Republicans always outperforming the polls in MO...

Cool I'll inform senator Kander and governor Koster

I'm sure McCaskill will be fine with Koster and Kander underperforming the polls if she outperforms them by 10 points again.

Anyway, that was my point. Yeah, maybe Dems could underperform the polls in MO. Or overperform them. And that goes for the nation as a whole too. Who knows?

Well it should be remember that in 2012 there was a big overriding factor that would cause such a skew and that was Todd Akin. He was tied for a long time, even after the comments, that is until the deadline for withdrawal came by, then Claire nuke him in advertising. There were probably a number of undecided Romney votes who at the last minute decided they couldn't vote for Todd Akin.