MO-WPAIntel: Hawley +7

[reagente]

https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/CFG_MO_SEN_Brushfire_Summary-Memo_180817.pdf

WPAIntel conducted this poll on behalf of the Club for Growth between August 12-14. Sample size of 501 voters.

Missouri Senate:
Hawley (R) - 48
McCaskill (D) - 41

Previous poll from July had Hawley at 43, and McCaskill at 42.

I still have this race as a tossup.

[Free Bird]

Tossup as usual. Are there any indications that Hawley is ramping up his lazy game now, though?

[Politician]

It's a Republican internal, so tossup.

[pbrower2a]

Club for Growth. Bah, humbug!

[Beet]

Robert Fulton is one of the greatest GOP strategists of the 21st century. The party has been steaming upstream along the Mississippi River for 20 years. First, they took Louisiana and Arkansas, and made Missouri a swing state. Then, they took Missouri and made Iowa a swing state. Now, they have taken Iowa and made Minnesota a swing state!

[windjammer]

Almost as garbage as the IN poll showing Donnelly leading by 12!

[DrScholl]

This a Club for Growth internal and anyone who believes that is looking for polls that feed their personal wants.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely D -> Safe R

Seriously though, maybe we were too quick to assume that Donnelly is more vulnerable than McCaskill?

[Pandaguineapig]

This along with the democratic internal showing Hawley moving into a tie from 4 points would indicate that Hawley has a narrow lead and the race is moving in his direction. Hawley also can't be upset with the fact that Missouri polls tend to underestimate republicans, looks like claire will finally get to spend more time with her private jets

[IceSpear]

This poll seems reliable.

[Free Bird]

This poll seems reliable.

Oh my

[Zaybay]

This poll seems reliable.

Oh my

Even Trafalgar got close to the average result. A Club for Growth internal is complete garbage, I would just wait for a nonpartisan poll of this race.

[Pandaguineapig]

You can attack the credibility of this poll all you want but it still shows a 6 point movement towards Hawley and the democrats own internal poll shows the race moving 4 points towards Hawley.

[MT Treasurer]

McCaskill may or may not win, but she’s not less vulnerable than Heidi Heitkamp, guys.

[BudgieForce]

You can attack the credibility of this poll all you want but it still shows a 6 point movement towards Hawley and the democrats own internal poll shows the race moving 4 points towards Hawley.

The other poll wasn't a democrat internal. It was paid for by a newspaper.


But yeah, this poll isnt something to take much stalk in.

[Pandaguineapig]

You can attack the credibility of this poll all you want but it still shows a 6 point movement towards Hawley and the democrats own internal poll shows the race moving 4 points towards Hawley.

The other poll wasn't a democrat internal. It was paid for by a newspaper.


But yeah, this poll isnt something to take much stalk in.

Yes but it was done by a democratic firm that last found Mccaskill up by 4

[IceSpear]

This along with the democratic internal showing Hawley moving into a tie from 4 points would indicate that Hawley has a narrow lead and the race is moving in his direction. Hawley also can't be upset with the fact that Missouri polls tend to underestimate republicans, looks like claire will finally get to spend more time with her private jets

Well, for one thing, that wasn't a Democratic internal. Posters were wrong that it was a Republican internal, but it was from Missouri Scout, which as far as I can tell has no partisan allegiance.

As for Republicans always outperforming the polls in MO...

[Pandaguineapig]

This along with the democratic internal showing Hawley moving into a tie from 4 points would indicate that Hawley has a narrow lead and the race is moving in his direction. Hawley also can't be upset with the fact that Missouri polls tend to underestimate republicans, looks like claire will finally get to spend more time with her private jets

Well, for one thing, that wasn't a Democratic internal. Posters were wrong that it was a Republican internal, but it was from Missouri Scout, which as far as I can tell has no partisan allegiance.

As for Republicans always outperforming the polls in MO...

Cool I'll inform senator Kander and governor Koster

[BudgieForce]

You can attack the credibility of this poll all you want but it still shows a 6 point movement towards Hawley and the democrats own internal poll shows the race moving 4 points towards Hawley.

The other poll wasn't a democrat internal. It was paid for by a newspaper.


But yeah, this poll isnt something to take much stalk in.

Yes but it was done by a democratic firm that last found Mccaskill up by 4

WPA intelligence calls itself a "conservative" pollster and is directly going after democrat candidates on twitter. I think thats more than enough to not consider this polling firm trust worthy. Club for Growth + WPA = a probable R bias.

https://twitter.com/wpaintel?lang=en

[IceSpear]

This along with the democratic internal showing Hawley moving into a tie from 4 points would indicate that Hawley has a narrow lead and the race is moving in his direction. Hawley also can't be upset with the fact that Missouri polls tend to underestimate republicans, looks like claire will finally get to spend more time with her private jets

Well, for one thing, that wasn't a Democratic internal. Posters were wrong that it was a Republican internal, but it was from Missouri Scout, which as far as I can tell has no partisan allegiance.

As for Republicans always outperforming the polls in MO...

Cool I'll inform senator Kander and governor Koster

I'm sure McCaskill will be fine with Koster and Kander underperforming the polls if she outperforms them by 10 points again.

Anyway, that was my point. Yeah, maybe Dems could underperform the polls in MO. Or overperform them. And that goes for the nation as a whole too. Who knows?

[Xing]

It's an R pollster, but still, McCaskill could lose. Toss-Up as usual.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Would ya look at that? It’s already in the database!

[BudgieForce]

Would ya look at that? It’s already in the database!

Somebody put the iffy Indiana poll in the database. Consider this as a balance.

[Skye]

It's just a Republican internal guys. Relax. McCaskill is still vulnerable. This is still a Tossup.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Its an internal, so its probably more like Hawley +2