What districts will Jeff Johnson win?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I vote for the 6th and 7th, but a clean sweep by Walz is possible.

[Free Bird]

Considering that the DFL seems to just create monsters, I'm not confident in answering currently. I'm just waiting for it to be revealed that Walz eats puppies at this rate.

[Yellowhammer]

6th, 7th, and possibly 8th.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

6th, 7th, and possibly 8th.

Why would he win the 8th? He lost it in 2014 in a much better year for his party.

[Yellowhammer]

6th, 7th, and possibly 8th.

Why would he win the 8th? He lost it in 2014 in a much better year for his party.

Because this time he isn't running against an incumbent who has held statewide office for a combined 14 years, and the 8th is a district that trended 8 points to the right in 2016 & voted for Trump by 15 points. It's certainly plausible that Johnson wins it, but  Walz is slightly favored.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, Trump. Jeff Johnson is not Trump (he's not "populist") and Tim Walz is not Hillary Clinton. I don't see why Walz would have any problem doing what every other DFL Gubernatorial candidate in decades has done, especially with Trump now unpopular.

[pops]

Yes, Trump. Jeff Johnson is not Trump (he's not "populist") and Tim Walz is not Hillary Clinton. I don't see why Walz would have any problem doing what every other DFL Gubernatorial candidate in decades has done, especially with Trump now unpopular.

Uhh... Mark Dayton was the first DFL to be elected since 1986, I have no idea what "decades" you're talking about (in fact, we've only once elected a DFL candidate three elections in a row, and that was a popular Governor running for three terms).

The state winds are well against Walz, but I think he'll win by about 6-11% barring some weird scandal. Here's my CD prediction (Walz-Johnson-Others)

CD1 - 49-50-1
CD2 - 48-49-3
CD3 - 51-47-2
CD4 - 65-32-3
CD5 - 62-35-3
CD6 - 42-57-1
CD7 - 50-48-2
CD8 - 49-49-2

(Note: CD8 is basically going through political midlife crisis, could be anywhere from 47-53% for Walz. Otherwise I'm fairly confident about my predictions).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yes, Trump. Jeff Johnson is not Trump (he's not "populist") and Tim Walz is not Hillary Clinton. I don't see why Walz would have any problem doing what every other DFL Gubernatorial candidate in decades has done, especially with Trump now unpopular.

Uhh... Mark Dayton was the first DFL to be elected since 1986, I have no idea what "decades" you're talking about (in fact, we've only once elected a DFL candidate three elections in a row, and that was a popular Governor running for three terms).

I'm talking about the 8th, not the whole state.

Pawlenty never won it, and it voted DFL over Norm Coleman and Ventura. Also no non-Trump Republican for any office has won it in decades aside from that brief stint with Chip Cravaack.

Also how on Earth does Walz lose his district, CD-4 be more Democratic than CD-5 (WTF?) and Johnson break 35% in CD-5?! Republicans are lucky to break even a quarter of the vote in the fifth. And "the state winds are well against Walz", huh?

[pops]

Yes, Trump. Jeff Johnson is not Trump (he's not "populist") and Tim Walz is not Hillary Clinton. I don't see why Walz would have any problem doing what every other DFL Gubernatorial candidate in decades has done, especially with Trump now unpopular.

Uhh... Mark Dayton was the first DFL to be elected since 1986, I have no idea what "decades" you're talking about (in fact, we've only once elected a DFL candidate three elections in a row, and that was a popular Governor running for three terms).

I'm talking about the 8th, not the whole state.

Pawlenty never won it, and it voted DFL over Norm Coleman and Ventura. Also no non-Trump Republican for any office has won it in decades aside from that brief stint with Chip Cravaack.

Also how on Earth does Walz lose his district, CD-4 be more Democratic than CD-5 (WTF?) and Johnson break 35% in CD-5?! Republicans are lucky to break even a quarter of the vote in the fifth. And "the state winds are well against Walz", huh?

I see what you're getting at. Here's an explanation.
- Just because CD1 is Walz's home district does give him an advantage, but does not mean he'll win. He won by 0.8% in 2016 against a lukewarm Republican and between the fact that he's not running for re-election and the district is trending Republican like the state, it's not good news for him there.
- CD5 is another one I'm not totally sure about, but I think Johnson will be stronger there because it's his home turf. We shall see however.
- Yes, the state winds are well against Walz despite the national environment. If it were Murphy on the ballot it would be a very competitive race and not because she's a weak candidate. Alongside Maine, West Virginia, and Rhode Island, we're the one of the most GOP-trending states.