NM-SEN: Gary Johnson in

[TheSaint250]

2012 and 2016 Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson has entered the Senate race in New Mexico

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lol

[President Johnson]

Oh come one Gary, do you really think you can beat Martin Heinrich in this state and this year? Don't make a fool of yourself.

[IceSpear]

Oh come one Gary, do you really think you can beat Martin Heinrich in this state and this year? Don't make a fool of yourself.

Did he think he could be president in 2012 or 2016?

[Zaybay]

OMFG, hes such a moron!

[Reluctant Republican]

Oh come one Gary, do you really think you can beat Martin Heinrich in this state and this year? Don't make a fool of yourself.

I suspect this is more Gary helping the LP out and giving them a race they can be excited about for this year. He seems fairly devoted to the LP, he's probably hoping to attract new donors and voters to the party for future races.

I'll be interested in seeing if he can finish second. Johnson has never struck me as someone interested in the senate. I recall in either 2010 or 12 a few polls came out that had him leading or near leading the Republican primary for senate, and he passed on that for what was frankly a longer than longshot campaign for president.  

[Alabama_Indy10]

At least make it interesting Gary.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Hopefully the republican drops out. I’d love to see Gary in a 1v1 race

[Politician]

Does he want to get humiliated again? The only way he has a chance is if Mick Rich (the Republican) drops out and Gary Johnson runs as the de facto Republican (similar to Greg Orman in 2014).

[TheSaint250]

Safe D —> Safe L

Anyone who disagrees hates liberty

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

Dank.

[BlueDogs2020]

Lean D if Mick Rich drops out.
Safe D otherwise.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Johnson had an actual chance I'd support him, it's about time for a third party to grab a seat.

[Pandaguineapig]

If the Republican drops out this becomes a race, I could see him making an Orman-like agreement to caucus with the republicans on the off chance he gets elected so he can have a 1v1 race

[wesmoorenerd]

If the Republican drops out this is still Safe D, lmao. New Mexico isn't going to stray from its recent blue history in this kind of environment.

[Oryxslayer]

If the Republican drops out this becomes a race, I could see him making an Orman-like agreement to caucus with the republicans on the off chance he gets elected so he can have a 1v1 race

The problem with this is that its kinda a Catch-22: Damned if he makes this agreement, damned if he doesn't. If he does, he effectively becomes "republican-lite" and drives away all those left-leaning voters who might have voted for him if he remained just a third party candidate. If he doesn't make this pact, he has no chance of winning.

The other thing about potential comparisons to Orman though is that Orman benefited from Kansas-unique backlash against Brownback, that drove dems to the polls and primed moderate republicans to vote against the R line. New Mexico in 2018 is getting primed for a Republican backlash against Martinez plus the general Dem lean of the environment. This means that in addition to the dilemma above, Johnson faces extraordinarily hard circumstances.

The only way the Johnson could make this competitive is if he agrees to caucus with the dems and the rep candidate drops out or becomes a non-factor - two things that are very hard to see happening together. So, what is Johnsons goal here? If its to simply keep the Libertarian party relevant and make the party money, then just running and producing a 50-25-25 split is preferable. If its to prove that the Libs have potential or are competitive, then pushing the Republican out and losing 60-40 is the better option.

[UncleSam]

If the Republican drops out this is still Safe D, lmao. New Mexico isn't going to stray from its recent blue history in this kind of environment.

Hillary only got 48% in New Mexico and it’s hard to see many Trump voters voting for Heinrich over Gary Johnson. That combined with the Latino vote generally being down this year means it isn’t inconceivable that Johnson could make it close in a 1v1 scenario.

I do agree with you that Heinrich should win regardless, however, due to the general national environment. Safe D is too strong given the odd situation, however.

[ON Progressive]

Safe D —> Safe D

[Lognog]

If the Republican drops out this is still Safe D, lmao. New Mexico isn't going to stray from its recent blue history in this kind of environment.

Hillary only got 48% in New Mexico and it’s hard to see many Drumpf voters voting for Heinrich over Gary Johnson. That combined with the Latino vote generally being down this year means it isn’t inconceivable that Johnson could make it close in a 1v1 scenario.

I do agree with you that Heinrich should win regardless, however, due to the general national environment. Safe D is too strong given the odd situation, however.

Safe D is most appropriate when you now have a strong and well liked incumbent that has been polling very well (two polls had him up over 20 points against Mick Rich) AND now what ever opposition that Heinrich has is now split between two people

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

If the Republican drops out this is still Safe D, lmao. New Mexico isn't going to stray from its recent blue history in this kind of environment.

Hillary only got 48% in New Mexico and it’s hard to see many Drumpf voters voting for Heinrich over Gary Johnson. That combined with the Latino vote generally being down this year means it isn’t inconceivable that Johnson could make it close in a 1v1 scenario.

I do agree with you that Heinrich should win regardless, however, due to the general national environment. Safe D is too strong given the odd situation, however.

Safe D is most appropriate when you now have a strong and well liked incumbent that has been polling very well (two polls had him up over 20 points against Mick Rich) AND now what ever opposition that Heinrich has is now split between two people

[MAINEiac4434]

Oh come one Gary, do you really think you can beat Martin Heinrich in this state and this year? Don't make a fool of yourself.

Do you remember his 2016 campaign? He only makes a fool of himself. That’s literally all he does.

[mencken]

Why didn't he run in 2012 as a Republican, when he might have actually won*?

*OK, not really, if he ran the same trash-tier campaign as his presidential run.

[TheSaint250]

I love #Resistance Twitter already framing him as either a Russian agent or bought off by Republicans.

[SN2903]

Mr. Aleppo himself.

[Skye]

At least thank the man for making boring race v.51234 into something interesting AF.