CT Megathread: Stefanowski skips first debate

[adrac]

Figured I'd make one in anticipation of tonight.

Curious to see how the D Lt. Gov and row offices races go.

And, of course, the R Gov race too, but I haven't been following it as much.

[choclatechip45]

Democratic race for attorney general race will be tight could go either way.

[MAINEiac4434]

Lot of grassroots support for Bermudez Zimmerman, in addition to labor support. Wonder if it’s enough to buck the establishment.

[adrac]

Lot of grassroots support for Bermudez Zimmerman, in addition to labor support. Wonder if it’s enough to buck the establishment.

Makes me wish we had polling for races like this.

[here2view]

My girlfriend voted this morning before work. Paper ballot in case anyone is wondering. Lamont for Governor, Jahana Hayes for District 5. Will be interesting to see if Hayes can beat the Democrat Party's endorsed candidate, Mary Glassman.

Unrelated but she actually knows the daughter (or daughters?) of Rep. Elizabeth Etsy, the woman resigning from that seat in the 5th district.

[adrac]

All the state party-endorsed candidates are winning on the D side, but at least some of them are close.

[adrac]

If anyone is interested, you can find town-level results here:
http://www.courant.com/politics/elections/hc-ct-primary-election-results-20180814-htmlstory.html

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The guy that won the R Primary against Boughton is a lunatic.. Just read his profile!
https://twitter.com/bobforgovernor

[Free Bird]

RIP Tremont

[junior chįmp]

RIP Tremont

Lamont will win

[ctrepublican512]

Still a tossup. The fact that Stefanowski virtually started from the top up is indicative of his momentum. Shunned by party establishment, petitioned on ballot instead of going through convention (one of the very few who ever have accomplished this), AND beat out literally over a dozen party leaders from the local to legislative level. He has been constantly on TV since December and he can self-fund.

[Dr. Arch]

The guy that won the R Primary against Boughton is a lunatic.. Just read his profile!
https://twitter.com/bobforgovernor

Eliminate... the income tax...

"Phase out corporate income tax and business entity tax over 2 years"

Holy wow, lmao

[ctrepublican512]

Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? Lol, Likely D at the very least.

lol garbage opinion

[Zaybay]

Wow, the Rs really screwed up.

[ctrepublican512]

Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? Lol, Likely D at the very least.

lol garbage opinion

Republicans are more likely to win NH, RI and ME than here. Lamont probably isn’t going to win in a landslide, but I don’t see how he loses this race. I really hope CT is the only state in New England Republicans lose so that I don’t have to hear about muhhhh Malloy unpopularity anymore.

He's unlikable and out of touch. And he has gone on the record saying he would support tax increases as well as the implementation of tolls. Him and his buddy Bysiewicz are perennial losers and it will stay that way. Markley is going to turn out the conservative base. And if you don't think a tax-cut centric campaign won't resonate in the suburbs and even in the high mill rate cities (increase GOP margins) then you are on another planet. I want to emphasize the aversion to tolls - why do you think the Dems waited to vote on tolls in this past legislative session?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Sad Stewart lost her race. The Republican primary voters are really a terrible bunch. So yeah:

Wow, the Rs really screwed up.

[Zaybay]

Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? Lol, Likely D at the very least.

lol garbage opinion

Republicans are more likely to win NH, RI and ME than here. Lamont probably isn’t going to win in a landslide, but I don’t see how he loses this race. I really hope CT is the only state in New England Republicans lose so that I don’t have to hear about muhhhh Malloy unpopularity anymore.

He's unlikable and out of touch. And he has gone on the record saying he would support tax increases as well as the implementation of tolls. Him and his buddy Bysiewicz are perennial losers and it will stay that way. Markley is going to turn out the conservative base. And if you don't think a tax-cut centric campaign won't resonate in the suburbs and even in the high mill rate cities (increase GOP margins) then you are on another planet. I want to emphasize the aversion to tolls - why do you think the Dems waited to vote on tolls in this past legislative session?

you are really trying to spin an obvious primary failure. The race was already D leaning when everyone thought the more moderate Boughton would win, and now with a close ally of Trump, this race will go to the Rs? National environment, state PVI, and the poor GOP candidate will give Lamont the victory. It looks like RI is the best opportunity for an R guber pickup now.

[ctrepublican512]

Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? Lol, Likely D at the very least.

lol garbage opinion

Republicans are more likely to win NH, RI and ME than here. Lamont probably isn’t going to win in a landslide, but I don’t see how he loses this race. I really hope CT is the only state in New England Republicans lose so that I don’t have to hear about muhhhh Malloy unpopularity anymore.

He's unlikable and out of touch. And he has gone on the record saying he would support tax increases as well as the implementation of tolls. Him and his buddy Bysiewicz are perennial losers and it will stay that way. Markley is going to turn out the conservative base. And if you don't think a tax-cut centric campaign won't resonate in the suburbs and even in the high mill rate cities (increase GOP margins) then you are on another planet. I want to emphasize the aversion to tolls - why do you think the Dems waited to vote on tolls in this past legislative session?

you are really trying to spin an obvious primary failure. The race was already D leaning when everyone thought the more moderate Boughton would win, and now with a close ally of Trump, this race will go to the Rs? National environment, state PVI, and the poor GOP candidate will give Lamont the victory. It looks like RI is the best opportunity for an R guber pickup now.

lmao you're really funny. A close ally of Trump??? Bob was getting hammered in the last month because more conservative candidates called him out for being a Democrat  prior to announcing his candidacy. He didn't even vote in 2016 or years before that, and he maxed out for Chris Dodd, another thing he was heavily criticized for. No idea where you are getting your information from. I don't really give 2 fcks if you think I am trying to spin anything, 95% of you are the biggest partisan Dem hacks on the planet. I was playing around on 270 to win and filling in a Dem seat for every time I saw someone say "Safe/Solid/Likely" Dem on here. 297 seats. I'll take my chances thanks.

[Zaybay]

Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? Lol, Likely D at the very least.

lol garbage opinion

Republicans are more likely to win NH, RI and ME than here. Lamont probably isn’t going to win in a landslide, but I don’t see how he loses this race. I really hope CT is the only state in New England Republicans lose so that I don’t have to hear about muhhhh Malloy unpopularity anymore.

He's unlikable and out of touch. And he has gone on the record saying he would support tax increases as well as the implementation of tolls. Him and his buddy Bysiewicz are perennial losers and it will stay that way. Markley is going to turn out the conservative base. And if you don't think a tax-cut centric campaign won't resonate in the suburbs and even in the high mill rate cities (increase GOP margins) then you are on another planet. I want to emphasize the aversion to tolls - why do you think the Dems waited to vote on tolls in this past legislative session?

you are really trying to spin an obvious primary failure. The race was already D leaning when everyone thought the more moderate Boughton would win, and now with a close ally of Trump, this race will go to the Rs? National environment, state PVI, and the poor GOP candidate will give Lamont the victory. It looks like RI is the best opportunity for an R guber pickup now.

lmao you're really funny. A close ally of Trump??? Bob was getting hammered in the last month because more conservative candidates called him out for being a Democrat  prior to announcing his candidacy. He didn't even vote in 2016 or years before that, and he maxed out for Chris Dodd, another thing he was heavily criticized for. No idea where you are getting your information from. I don't really give 2 fcks if you think I am trying to spin anything, 95% of you are the biggest partisan Dem hacks on the planet. I was playing around on 270 to win and filling in a Dem seat for every time I saw someone say "Safe/Solid/Likely" Dem on here. 297 seats. I'll take my chances thanks.

alright, just dont get your hopes up

[smoltchanov]

Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

[ctrepublican512]

Wait, people here actually thought this race would be competitive? Lol, Likely D at the very least.

lol garbage opinion

Republicans are more likely to win NH, RI and ME than here. Lamont probably isn’t going to win in a landslide, but I don’t see how he loses this race. I really hope CT is the only state in New England Republicans lose so that I don’t have to hear about muhhhh Malloy unpopularity anymore.

He's unlikable and out of touch. And he has gone on the record saying he would support tax increases as well as the implementation of tolls. Him and his buddy Bysiewicz are perennial losers and it will stay that way. Markley is going to turn out the conservative base. And if you don't think a tax-cut centric campaign won't resonate in the suburbs and even in the high mill rate cities (increase GOP margins) then you are on another planet. I want to emphasize the aversion to tolls - why do you think the Dems waited to vote on tolls in this past legislative session?

you are really trying to spin an obvious primary failure. The race was already D leaning when everyone thought the more moderate Boughton would win, and now with a close ally of Trump, this race will go to the Rs? National environment, state PVI, and the poor GOP candidate will give Lamont the victory. It looks like RI is the best opportunity for an R guber pickup now.

lmao you're really funny. A close ally of Trump??? Bob was getting hammered in the last month because more conservative candidates called him out for being a Democrat  prior to announcing his candidacy. He didn't even vote in 2016 or years before that, and he maxed out for Chris Dodd, another thing he was heavily criticized for. No idea where you are getting your information from. I don't really give 2 fcks if you think I am trying to spin anything, 95% of you are the biggest partisan Dem hacks on the planet. I was playing around on 270 to win and filling in a Dem seat for every time I saw someone say "Safe/Solid/Likely" Dem on here. 297 seats. I'll take my chances thanks.

alright, just dont get your hopes up

I said still tossup

[ctrepublican512]

Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

[Ye We Can]

Lean D I'd say, Stefanowski is an interesting candidate

[cinyc]

Here's a map of the winner by town. The data is an hour or so old (before New Haven and Hartford became final), but seems to have held up regardless - and there are very few R voters in those two cities, anyway.



Labeled towns had more than 2,000 Republican primary voters.

An interactive version map of the map, with an option to color in how each candidate performed, is available here.

Eventually, I might try to map what place each candidate came in in each town. Boughton generally did worse as you move east from Danbury - ending up in 5th place in some towns on the RI border. That's why he didn't win, despite putting up good numbers in the towns near Danbury (he won Danbury proper by about 2,000 votes).

[choclatechip45]

Well, i would surely prefer a 3rd place candidate (Stemerman) for governor and 2nd place (Stewart) - for LG. Stefanowski is somewhat "too Reaganish" for my tastes (though i have some fiscal conservative streak myself), and Markley - well, way too much rightist...

Though I really think on the one hand this is going to be about turnout. Markley is a demigod to the far right and if they can stay motivated to put him in office, added to the fact that Eva isn't there to drive up that city turnout, its going to be very close

Markley will turnout democrats and repel independents. You also said Ganim would do well in cities he was crushed in the cities. The race is lean D. It’s kind of amazing how republicans don’t learn their lesson year after year.   There are more independents and Democrats than Republicans in the state. Also Stefanowksi said he would give trump an A job and would love for him to campaign for him. Since when is Trump popular in Ct or won CT in the general?