TX-SEN Civiqs: O'Rourke +1

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1029020803956965376



O'Rourke 48
Cru 47

[Politician]

Obvious junk poll, Texas is too Titanium R for Beto to win.

[Zaybay]

*Spits Coffee*

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This is nice, but if you look at the trendline there, it is pretty apparent that it has more to do with the particular methodology of the poll (Daily Kos polls) and its particular ideosyncracies than with any real late-breaking trend towards O'Rourke.

Yes, it is clear across polls that O'Rourke has gained ground and is doing comparatively well, but in this same poll, you can see they had O'Rourke and Cruz tied 1 year ago (which strains credulity, as that was well before the campaign had even started), and also had O'Rourke up slightly earlier in this year.

So it is good news, but doesn't mean he is likely to win.

[TheSaint250]

Civiqs is, in the word of its founder, "under the same corporate umbrella" as Daily Kos, and iirc strictly online polling isn't necessarily the most reliable.  Recent, non-internal polling does not show such a large shift like this.  Not even internal polls do, really.

[smoltchanov]

This is nice, but if you look at the trendline there, it is pretty apparent that it has more to do with the particular methodology of the poll (Daily Kos polls) and its particular ideosyncracies than with any real late-breaking trend towards O'Rourke.

Yes, it is clear across polls that O'Rourke has gained ground and is doing comparatively well, but in this same poll, you can see they had O'Rourke and Cruz tied 1 year ago (which strains credulity, as that was well before the campaign had even started), and also had O'Rourke up slightly earlier in this year.

So it is good news, but doesn't mean he is likely to win.

Subscribe under last phrase...

[UWS]

This is nice, but if you look at the trendline there, it is pretty apparent that it has more to do with the particular methodology of the poll (Daily Kos polls) and its particular ideosyncracies than with any real late-breaking trend towards O'Rourke.

Yes, it is clear across polls that O'Rourke has gained ground and is doing comparatively well, but in this same poll, you can see they had O'Rourke and Cruz tied 1 year ago (which strains credulity, as that was well before the campaign had even started), and also had O'Rourke up slightly earlier in this year.

So it is good news, but doesn't mean he is likely to win.

At least, it gives hope, thus giving the necessary optimism for the Dems to win against Cruz in Texas.

[Skye]

This is nice, but if you look at the trendline there, it is pretty apparent that it has more to do with the particular methodology of the poll (Daily Kos polls) and its particular ideosyncracies than with any real late-breaking trend towards O'Rourke.

Pretty much this. It's been quite friendly to O'Rourke.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah, dont buy it. Not yet anyway.

[DrScholl]

Even Cruz himself knows he's in trouble.

[Doimper]

Even Cruz himself knows he's in trouble.

[john cage bubblegum]

Civiqs polling of things like Trump approval or the generic ballot actually doesn't seem to have a Dem bias.  However looking at the history of this particular race, it looks to be somewhat O'Rourke friendly. 

Still, if you look at the other three recent polls of this race: Cruz +2, +4, and +6, this is isn't wildly out of line.  TX-Sen remains a Lean R race for me, but definitely one to watch.

[wesmoorenerd]

Guess we've answered that question about if Beto will ever lead in a poll.

As others have said, it's probably not the best poll, but it's a good sign.

[President Johnson]

Guess we've answered that question about if Beto will ever lead in a poll.

As others have said, it's probably not the best poll, but it's a good sign.

This was my first thought as well.

But how credible is the pollster? I never heard of this particular firm.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

At least my thread has been fulfilled!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guess we've answered that question about if Beto will ever lead in a poll.

As others have said, it's probably not the best poll, but it's a good sign.

This was my first thought as well.

But how credible is the pollster? I never heard of this particular firm.

As others have said, they are a new venture created by the same people that fund Daily Kos.  (This doesn't necessarily mean they have a bias; Fox News is biased, but their polling is quite good.)  They have no rating from 538 because they don't yet have a track record to measure, but they do have some good people (e.g. Drew Linzer).

[KingSweden]

Yeah, dont buy it. Not yet anyway.

[Xing]

Definitely seems very D-friendly, but this race is clearly more competitive than WI, MI, OH, and PA. I'm close to moving it from Likely R to Lean R, at this point.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Definitely seems very D-friendly, but this race is clearly more competitive than WI, MI, OH, and PA. I'm close to moving it from Likely R to Lean R, at this point.

[windjammer]

Lol,
Not going to happen

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This is nice, but if you look at the trendline there, it is pretty apparent that it has more to do with the particular methodology of the poll (Daily Kos polls) and its particular ideosyncracies than with any real late-breaking trend towards O'Rourke.

Yes, it is clear across polls that O'Rourke has gained ground and is doing comparatively well, but in this same poll, you can see they had O'Rourke and Cruz tied 1 year ago (which strains credulity, as that was well before the campaign had even started), and also had O'Rourke up slightly earlier in this year.

So it is good news, but doesn't mean he is likely to win.

[Zaybay]

This has been one of the most friendly pollsters for Beto, getting Cruz+2 a month or two back. While Beto is likely to get a good chunk of the undecided vote and make the race close, there is not enough evidence that suggests that this race is a pure tossup. Still lean R, for now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great News.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I WANT TO BELIEVE

[Atlas Force]

Definitely seems very D-friendly, but this race is clearly more competitive than WI, MI, OH, and PA. I'm close to moving it from Likely R to Lean R, at this point.