I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.
Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.
It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point. That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point. In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome. Basically, MO and IN have enough votes in large/medium-sized cities to keep this interesting. ND doesn't, and Tester in MT should also be running more scared than he is.
