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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie
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Author Topic: MO-Missouri Scout/Remington (R): Tie  (Read 2154 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 12, 2018, 07:45:10 am »

47% Sen. McCaskill (D)
47% Hawley (R)

August 8-9.

https://www.weeklystandard.com/andrew-egger/in-missouri-claire-mccaskill-and-josh-hawley-in-dead-heat
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OneJ
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2018, 07:47:06 am »

Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2018, 07:49:18 am »

Is that an improvement for McCaskill since the last poll?

Yeah, she was down by 2 in their July poll.
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westroopnerd
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2018, 08:15:49 am »

Seeing as this is a Republican pollster, good result for McCaskill. McCaskill is sort of the anti-Nelson. She's looking less vulnerable than, say, Donnelly and Heitkamp because of how weak Hawley is shaping up to be. However, just like Nelson has room to grow and will probably surge toward the end, McCaskill's ceiling is low and Hawley could surge toward the end. Best case scenario is Nelson gets his s*it together and Hawley doesn't, of course.
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President Biden
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2018, 08:35:37 am »

Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2018, 08:38:11 am »

Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner literally any Republican?
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #6 on: August 12, 2018, 09:14:20 am »

Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner?

Exactly this probably would have happened in a Clinton midterm.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #7 on: August 12, 2018, 11:09:57 am »

Yeah, this race is lean D at this point. If R pollsters are finding it a tie, and nonpartisan pollsters find her ahead by 4-5, and the primary showed a final margin of 53-47R, then Claire will have a much easier time of winning than previously thought.
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2018, 12:00:26 pm »

I'm still rating this a Toss-Up out of caution, but yeah, I can't believe anyone actually thought that McCaskill would get blanched in a Republican midterm. She doesn't have this in the bag by any means, but if a Republican pollster shows a tie (a better result for her than before), she's in good shape for now.
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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2018, 12:11:36 pm »

Wait, where does it say Remington in the article? It only says it's from Missouri Scout, and their last poll actually showed McCaskill leading by 4. Unless I'm missing something.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #10 on: August 12, 2018, 01:44:45 pm »

Remington is a Republican pollster the same way PPP is a Democratic pollster. Their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Trump's winning margin and 538 gives them a mean-reverted bias of D+1.1, so the idea that we should just add 5 points or whatever to McCaskill's numbers because of the (R) is silly. Of course she could win, but I donít get (or, actually I do) why people now think sheís much safer than Heitkamp, lmao. You should probably refrain from bashing Republicans for making "overconfident" predictions when youíre calling this Lean D and "unskewing" polls which donít show her ahead.
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jimmie
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« Reply #11 on: August 12, 2018, 04:38:31 pm »

Remember when everyone thought McCaskill would get blanched by Ann Wagner?

and ann wagner herself is not even safe despite everyone believing last year that MO-02 was THE MOST REPUBLICAN DISTRICT IN THE COUNTRY BECAUSE TODD AKIN REPRESENTED IT!!!!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #12 on: August 12, 2018, 05:16:52 pm »

Republicans easily got more votes in the primary. Big momentum for Hawley.

A Missouri Scout poll of the head-to-head matchup released Saturday morning finds likely voters evenly split on McCaskill and Hawley, with 47 percent supporting each candidate and six percent undecided. The poll, which was conducted on August 8 and 9, is the first major statewide poll since early July. Each of Missouri Scoutís previous polls, which took place in April and May, showed McCaskill holding a four-point lead.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: August 12, 2018, 05:46:41 pm »

Remington is a Republican pollster the same way PPP is a Democratic pollster. Their final poll in 2016 actually underestimated Trump's winning margin and 538 gives them a mean-reverted bias of D+1.1, so the idea that we should just add 5 points or whatever to McCaskill's numbers because of the (R) is silly. Of course she could win, but I donít get (or, actually I do) why people now think sheís much safer than Heitkamp, lmao. You should probably refrain from bashing Republicans for making "overconfident" predictions when youíre calling this Lean D and "unskewing" polls which donít show her ahead.

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.
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« Reply #14 on: August 12, 2018, 05:51:17 pm »

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, Iím not saying it couldnít happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: August 12, 2018, 05:58:29 pm »

Republicans easily got more votes in the primary. Big momentum for Hawley.

Hot take.

2012:
289,481 D
603,120 R

2018:
605,503 D
663,553 R
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #16 on: August 12, 2018, 06:09:42 pm »
« Edited: August 12, 2018, 06:13:37 pm by Skill and Chance »

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, I’m not saying it couldn’t happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.  Basically, MO and IN have enough votes in large/medium-sized cities to keep this interesting.  ND doesn't, and Tester in MT should also be running more scared than he is.
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« Reply #17 on: August 12, 2018, 06:12:32 pm »

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, Iím not saying it couldnít happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.

I agree on MO, but there is no way Cramer +10 is a completely plausible outcome. You guys are seriously underestimating Heitkamp, there is no way she loses by such a large margin in a Democratic wave year, especially if the populists<3 Tester and Manchin are basically safe.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #18 on: August 12, 2018, 06:20:05 pm »

I mean, the average of polls puts her only very narrowly ahead (thus why I'd rate it a Toss-Up), but the average of polls in North Dakota show Heitkamp slightly behind. So if you take the polls at face value, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that she could do better than Heitkamp.

Yeah, Iím not saying it couldnít happen, but I definitely disagree with this weird idea that MO is Lean D while ND is Lean/Likely R. That sounds more like wishful thinking to me. I also think Hawley has much more room for improvement than Cramer.

It's not Lean D, but it's looking likely to be a 1-3% affair either way at this point.  That is way better shape than anyone thought McCaskill would be in at this point.  In ND, by contrast, Cramer by 10% is a completely plausible outcome.

I agree on MO, but there is no way Cramer +10 is a completely plausible outcome. You guys are seriously underestimating Heitkamp, there is no way she loses by such a large margin in a Democratic wave year, especially if the populists<3 Tester and Manchin are basically safe.

Women can't qualify for #populism Purple heart. That's why McCaskill is using the alternative shrill bitch strategy of dragging down Hawley. So far it's working for her. Smiley
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jimmie
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« Reply #19 on: August 12, 2018, 06:22:27 pm »

2017: I was ridiculed, laughed at, called a troll, etc for stating McCaskill has a shot. Toss up tilt R race.

2018: I am one of the few who are not convinced that she has won the election.

My opinion has not changed on the status of the race but I change my mind on who will win every other hour evening while I am sleeping.
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« Reply #20 on: August 12, 2018, 06:24:42 pm »

Women can't qualify for #populism Purple heart. That's why McCaskill is using the alternative shrill bitch strategy of dragging down Hawley. So far it's working for her. Smiley

#Populism Purple heart is such a fun ideology.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: August 12, 2018, 06:24:54 pm »

2017: I was ridiculed, laughed at, called a troll, etc for stating McCaskill has a shot. Toss up tilt R race.

2018: I am one of the few who are not convinced that she has won the election.

My opinion has not changed on the status of the race but I change my mind on who will win every other hour evening while I am sleeping.

Shouldn't the astrology tell you who wins?
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jimmie
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« Reply #22 on: August 12, 2018, 06:26:39 pm »

2017: I was ridiculed, laughed at, called a troll, etc for stating McCaskill has a shot. Toss up tilt R race.

2018: I am one of the few who are not convinced that she has won the election.

My opinion has not changed on the status of the race but I change my mind on who will win every other hour evening while I am sleeping.

Shouldn't the astrology tell you who wins?

It is another way to predict elections but it is not full proof. I do not have birth times for most of these people so I have to try to estimate their birth times based on life events.

I based McCaskill vs Wagner as a toss up due to Wagner not having great transits and progressions in November 2018 and January 2019.

McCaskill vs Hawley is also a toss up.
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OneJ
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« Reply #23 on: August 12, 2018, 07:20:36 pm »

Republicans easily got more votes in the primary. Big momentum for Hawley.

A Missouri Scout poll of the head-to-head matchup released Saturday morning finds likely voters evenly split on McCaskill and Hawley, with 47 percent supporting each candidate and six percent undecided. The poll, which was conducted on August 8 and 9, is the first major statewide poll since early July. Each of Missouri Scoutís previous polls, which took place in April and May, showed McCaskill holding a four-point lead.

I see the biggest GOP cheerleader is at it again! Your party got 52% of the overall primary vote in a state that is R+9. I donít see that as ďbigĒ momentum for Hawley (or McDowell for that matter) but whatever makes you sleep at night. Roll Eyes
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: August 12, 2018, 07:44:47 pm »

This is...good?
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