Canada: Which NDP leader is more likely to become Premier of their province?

[King of Kensington]

Manitoba has much more of an NDP history and the NDP has long been the dominant center-left party.  But they suffered a big defeat in the last election, and Wab Kinew's past isn't going to stop haunting him.  Ontario meanwhile saw an NDP surge under Andrea Horwath (and the Liberals losing official party status) and seems well poised to have the progressive vote coalesce around them again.  But Ontario has more natural "Liberal" tendencies and maybe it's naive to think it'll start voting like a Western province.

Of course it's entirely within the realm of possibility that either could not lead their parties in the next election - but if you expect one of them to not be leading next time that counts "against" them.

[136or142]

Manitoba has much more of an NDP history and the NDP has long been the dominant center-left party.  But they suffered a big defeat in the last election, and Wab Kinew's past isn't going to stop haunting him.  Ontario meanwhile saw an NDP surge under Andrea Horwath (and the Liberals losing official party status) and seems well poised to have the progressive vote coalesce around them again.  But Ontario has more natural "Liberal" tendencies and maybe it's naive to think it'll start voting like a Western province.

Of course it's entirely within the realm of possibility that either could not lead their parties in the next election - but if you expect one of them to not be leading next time that counts "against" them.

I'm not defending Wab Kinew, but this is an example of conservative bias in Canada.  Scott 'Killer' Moe literally killed a person while driving without due care and attention (and this was after he had been charged with drunk driving) and nobody seems to care about that.

If it's inappropriate for Wab Kinew to be leader of a political party, in no way should Killer Moe be a Premier.

[Hatman 🍁]

Manitoba is way too racist to elect a First Nations Premier, especially one with a checkered past like Kinew.

[mileslunn]

Actually I think of the current NDP leaders, Ryan Mieli is the most likely to someday become premier, more likely than either Howarth or Kinew.  The Saskatchewan Party will have been in power for 13 years by 2020 thus making them more vulnerable as opposed to the other two which are first term governments (mind you Ford is definitely the type who could lose after one term).  That being said even if Mieli doesn't win in 2020, I am pretty sure the NDP will win back a lot of their traditional seats and he will likely get a second kick at the can and by 2024, it will be 17 years of Saskatchewan Party so pretty sure if they don't win in 2020, they will in 2024.  While its over 2 years away, my prediction for Saskatchewan is Scott Moe is re-elected but by a much tighter margin than Brad Wall got in the last 2 elections, while in 2024, NDP wins in a landslide as people are sick of the Saskatchewan Party.

[King of Kensington]

A more lop-sided result than the which is more free China or the USA poll.