WI-GOV: Who wins the Democratic Primary?

[JMT]

Evers wins

[Politician]

Tony Evers, and no other candidate gets over 20%.

[Drew]

I would say Evers, though the margin should be closer than polls are suggesting due to undecideds.  The field seems too fractured for someone to beat Evers with his greater name recognition.  A lot of candidates splitting the ‘progressive’ vote such as Roys, Mitchell, McCabe, and even Soglin.

Prediction:

Evers 28%
Mitchell 22%
Roys 21%
Vinehout 11%
McCabe 8%
Flynn 6%
Soglin 2%
Pade 0.5%
Others 1.5%

[Koharu]

Evers.

Though Roys won the recent Dane County Democrats straw poll, which was not the result I was expecting from that group. Even still, Evers has name recognition statewide and it seems a lot of people are going into this not knowing who to vote for.

[MAINEiac4434]

Evers and it probably won't be close.

[libertpaulian]

Evers.  He'll win by Witmer margins.

[Xing]

Evers and it probably won't be close.

[Drew]

Evers.

Though Roys won the recent Dane County Democrats straw poll, which was not the result I was expecting from that group. Even still, Evers has name recognition statewide and it seems a lot of people are going into this not knowing who to vote for.

Roys did also win the 2nd CD convention straw poll, which of course is Dane-dominated.  She also has won a number or other straw polls, including the one at the state convention.  She does seem to have support from a lot of Dem activists, particularly in Dane.  Though I agree that Evers is the bigger name among the general public and should theoretically win as a result.

[mcmikk]

Evers with around 40-45% of the vote. Roys and Mitchell(though to a slightly lesser degree than Roys) outperform polling by a decent amount. Everyone else flops.

This is mainly based off Evers' statewide name recognition, his consistent lead in public polling, his ties to education, and that he has been aggressively making the argument that he is the best general election candidate(plus that he has comfortable leads over Walker in some recent polling). Since it seems most Dem primary voters can't make up their minds and don't really care much who wins, and would happily vote for any of them over Walker, I think some of them might make the calculation that Evers is best for the general election and pull the lever for him.

But again, most of that is just random slightly-bs conjecture. The strongest indicator is the actual primary polling.

[Jeppe]

Probably Evers with Roys surprisingly close.

[Suburbia]

Evers by 15 points.

[Wiz in Wis]

Evers with around 30%
Roys 20%
Mitchell 19%
McCabe 10%
Flynn 8%
Vinehout 7%
Soglin 5%
Pade 1%

[MasterJedi]

Evers will win by at least 25%.

[Chief Justice Keef]

Evers will win by around 20 points. Roys gets second, followed by either Vinehout or Mitchell.

[Dr. Arch]

I have this uneasy feeling that it's not as decided as it appears to be. It might be because I've only met one other Evers supporter in the Dane county area, and that he has virtually no presence from here to MKE where I've been, but hey. Who knows?

[Gass3268]

I have this uneasy feeling that it's not as decided as it appears to be. It might be because I've only met one other Evers supporter in the Dane county area, and that he has virtually no presence from here to MKE where I've been, but hey. Who knows?

There are a lot of undecided voters...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is Evers to lose.

[redjohn]

I have this uneasy feeling that it's not as decided as it appears to be. It might be because I've only met one other Evers supporter in the Dane county area, and that he has virtually no presence from here to MKE where I've been, but hey. Who knows?

I get the same feeling. I haven't seen any presence from the Evers campaign, but I've been contacted by a few other campaigns. Evers must be relying on name recognition in rural Wisconsin, because I don't really see a base for him. He seems to have the upper hand, but the huge amount of undecided voters and persuadable voters leads me to believe that this is going to be close. It's hard for me to say which other candidates are likely to win (Mitchell and Vinehout will easily outperform their polling averages), because there are so many candidates that I don't think any candidate gets close to 50%.

[MasterJedi]

Voter number 43 at 8am in the south suburbs of Milwaukee County.

[Dr. Arch]

Voter number 43 at 8am in the south suburbs of Milwaukee County.

How does that compare to usual turnout? I'm voting in the afternoon this time.

[MasterJedi]

Voter number 43 at 8am in the south suburbs of Milwaukee County.

How does that compare to usual turnout? I'm voting in the afternoon this time.

Since I've moved here last fall I haven't voted in the morning, was only in the afternoon so I can't really say.

[Kleine Scheiße]

Evers with Roys overperformance.

[Koharu]

I worked the first half of the day as an election worker for the first time. I can't say how the turnout compares, but things were slow but steady at my location. Just as I left (2:30), things were really starting to pick up. I'm looking forward to seeing what the turnout numbers end up being.

[2016]

Evers will win.

[Dr. Arch]

Voter number 43 at 8am in the south suburbs of Milwaukee County.

How does that compare to usual turnout? I'm voting in the afternoon this time.

Since I've moved here last fall I haven't voted in the morning, was only in the afternoon so I can't really say.

161 at my precinct today, decent turnout!