More likely to flip: Bay County, MI or Kent County, MI?

[SingingAnalyst]

Going back to 1932, Bay County, MI has voted Dem each year except 1952 and 1956 (Eisenhower by about 20% each time), 1972 (Nixon by 3.0%), 1980 (Reagan by 1.5%), 1984 (Reagan by 7.3%), and 2016 (Trump by 12.6%). Obama won by 15.3% here in 2008. The county is 91.2% White, 1.5% Black, and 4.7% Hispanic or Latino.

Madonna, who was born in Bay City (the county seat) called Bay City a "little, smelly town in Northern Michigan" on national TV.

Kent County has voted Dem only 4 times since 1884: 1916, 1936, 1964, and 2008 (Obama won here by just 0.5% in 2008). Other than voting for Teddy Roosevelt in 1912, it has voted GOP all the other times. In 2016, Trump won it by 3.1%. The county airport is named after President Ford, who won 67.2% here in 1976. The county is 83.13% White, 8.93% Black, and 7.00% Hispanic or Latino.

Both might flip, or neither might flip. But if only one flips, which one?

I say Kent, make it the first time since 1916 that Kent votes Dem and Bay votes GOP.