If the Map is like this in 2036 what would it tell you about Political Alignment

[OSR stands with Israel]

[Zaybay]

The Democrats and Republicans continue down their current paths. The current D rural voters are gone, and have become Rs.
But as property values rise and cost of living increases, many Ds migrate to rural and less expensive states. WY is hit hard by this, and becomes basically VT. WV and MS were also hit, along with IA and NV. MT and KS are trending D fast, and it seems that the Ds may take back OR, which became competitive after the Portland suburbs turned against the Dems.

Thats all I got.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The Democrats and Republicans continue down their current paths. The current D rural voters are gone, and have become Rs.
But as property values rise and cost of living increases, many Ds migrate to rural and less expensive states. WY is hit hard by this, and becomes basically VT. WV and MS were also hit, along with IA and NV. MT and KS are trending D fast, and it seems that the Ds may take back OR, which became competitive after the Portland suburbs turned against the Dems.

Thats all I got.

WY was a mistake lol I meant solid R but rest map like above.

So would Texas basically stay pretty GOP due to Many Conservatives from say California and Colorado moving to Texas

[Zaybay]

The Democrats and Republicans continue down their current paths. The current D rural voters are gone, and have become Rs.
But as property values rise and cost of living increases, many Ds migrate to rural and less expensive states. WY is hit hard by this, and becomes basically VT. WV and MS were also hit, along with IA and NV. MT and KS are trending D fast, and it seems that the Ds may take back OR, which became competitive after the Portland suburbs turned against the Dems.

Thats all I got.

WY was a mistake lol I meant solid R but rest map like above.

So would Texas basically stay pretty GOP due to Many Conservatives from say California and Colorado moving to Texas

I dont think so. Most conservatives are older than the average Liberal. I would say that retirement states, such as FL, AZ, GA, NC and TX would see large amounts of Conservatives moving there.
Unlike with VT and CO, where transplants from Blue states turned them Blue, Rs, at this point in time, rely on being the only ones left. Thats a big reasons why the rust Belt is getting Redder, young people arent staying, while their parents and grandparents are.
TX would likely still trend blue in this scenario, and be a lean-D state. The growth of the urban areas such as Austin, Dallas, and so on, along with their suburbs, would outpace R growth, not to mention the latino base the Ds seem to still have, considering NV and AZ are blue.

I think my Liberal flight theory is the only way these trends make any sense. And, TBH, a D WY would actually make more sense, as Liberal flight would push more Ds here, and would also allow MT to lean R as shown in your map. KS would also face Liberal flight. The only problem is OR, I have no explanation for that.

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

I think my Liberal flight theory is the only way these trends make any sense. And, TBH, a D WY would actually make more sense, as Liberal flight would push more Ds here, and would also allow MT to lean R as shown in your map. KS would also face Liberal flight. The only problem is OR, I have no explanation for that.

I’m also curious as to what would make the Portland suburbs revolt against the Dems in the first place. My guess is the same thing happens to the Seattle suburbs, but Washington state is slightly more Dem overall so it doesn’t become a full-on swing state.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think my Liberal flight theory is the only way these trends make any sense. And, TBH, a D WY would actually make more sense, as Liberal flight would push more Ds here, and would also allow MT to lean R as shown in your map. KS would also face Liberal flight. The only problem is OR, I have no explanation for that.

I’m also curious as to what would make the Portland suburbs revolt against the Dems in the first place. My guess is the same thing happens to the Seattle suburbs, but Washington state is slightly more Dem overall so it doesn’t become a full-on swing state.

Republicans becoming a more suburban party


What I think would happen for this map is this:


2020 : Trump loses to Harris/Gillibrand in 2020

2024: Harris beat Pence/Gillibrand in 2024

A Recession in 2027 similar to the early 1990s hurts the Suburbs along with Harris/Gillibrand moving to the left on economics

2028: A Suburban Republican wins in 2028 by a large margin

2032:  The Suburban Republican wins again by a similar margin

[Technocracy Timmy]

This map is basically just a continuation of the 2008/2012/2016 trends with some small exceptions.

[McGarnagle]

This map might indicate that a midwestern moderate Republican POTUS is likely to be re-elected, and the party has probably become more socially liberal over time and moved away from Trumpism (otherwise it would not be competitive at all in west coast states), while the Democrats have become more working class populist leaning, but perhaps less environmentalist (otherwise West Virginia would be out of play), while still being socially liberal. There might be a third party challenging both that is very socially conservative but only gets about 3-4% of the vote in the general - in this scenario I could see a lot of Santorum or Pence-like conservatives joining the Constitution Party.

[Skill and Chance]

This is really just extrapolating current trends save for WV, which could plausibly have a large federal agency relocated to it by the next Dem administration or have Jefferson, WV turn into an extension of Loudoun, VA as it gets more and more developed until it comes to dominate the statewide vote.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This is really just extrapolating current trends save for WV, which could plausibly have a large federal agency relocated to it by the next Dem administration or have Jefferson, WV turn into an extension of Loudoun, VA as it gets more and more developed until it comes to dominate the statewide vote.

What about Texas


and IA being more Dem than WI

[Skill and Chance]

This is really just extrapolating current trends save for WV, which could plausibly have a large federal agency relocated to it by the next Dem administration or have Jefferson, WV turn into an extension of Loudoun, VA as it gets more and more developed until it comes to dominate the statewide vote.

What about Texas


and IA being more Dem than WI

That could be fairly easily explained with tariffs becoming a major political issue.  Texas is much harder.  I'm imagining major Republican gains in the Rio Grande Valley, along with some sort of "oil fix" in the tariff laws that ends up providing support on the same scale as present day farm subsidies to most people/companies in Houston/Midland.  Given how quickly farm support was expanded with high Republican concerns about losing the farm states over trade, I think something like this would be worked out very quickly if e.g. Trump only wins Texas by 4 in 2020 while still winning the election.  Tom Steyer and others in the environmental wing would basically force the Democrats to run on repealing it, even if it meant forfeiting Texas from that point forward.  This is also how Republicans manage to hold on in Alaska and Montana despite influx of Boulder, CO type voters.