Will Beto Lead In A Single GE Poll For The 2018 TX Sen Race?
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  Will Beto Lead In A Single GE Poll For The 2018 TX Sen Race?		 « previous next »
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Question: Will Beto Lead In A Single Poll For The 2018 GE TX Sen Race?
#1
Yes  
#2
No
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Author Topic: Will Beto Lead In A Single GE Poll For The 2018 TX Sen Race?  (Read 1559 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« on: August 05, 2018, 02:52:58 AM »
This question is not if he wins, or how much he leads by, or what quality pollster, or internal or not, etc etc. The question is will Beto lead in ANY GE poll for the 2018 Sen Race before November 6th 2018? The poll can be the crappiest most inaccurate hideous thing possible, but will Beto lead in any poll this season? I would tilt towards yes even though I think Cruz wins by 6 points as of now, but I could see a poll with Beto leading 45-44, 46-45, etc. There has to be at least one, right?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2018, 03:09:58 AM »
He will stay in the 4-5 range behind Cruz
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Doimper
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2018, 04:02:19 AM »
Duh.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2018, 04:14:03 AM »
Maybe, but color me skeptical. I think there will be one or two polls showing a tie and Cruz wins in the end by five or six points.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2018, 05:47:32 AM »
If he’s only down 2 in one of the polls with low name recognition, some poll will have him up at some point.
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Rhenna
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2018, 06:01:48 AM »
He'll probably get a tie or two.
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MycroftCZ
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2018, 02:46:03 PM »
I'm sure there'll be a poll that puts him up by 1 or 2 points and the media(and Atlas) will freak out and move the race into Likely Democratic and celebrate the rise of "Senator Beto O'Rourke". Then he'll lose by 6 in the GE
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7 on: August 05, 2018, 03:28:50 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 05, 2018, 05:47:32 AM
If he’s only down 2 in one of the polls with low name recognition, some poll will have him up at some point.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #8 on: August 05, 2018, 04:56:12 PM »
Quote from: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on August 05, 2018, 03:28:50 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 05, 2018, 05:47:32 AM
If he’s only down 2 in one of the polls with low name recognition, some poll will have him up at some point.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: August 05, 2018, 05:01:04 PM »
I actually don't expect it, although it's certainly possible that I'll be wrong about this.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #10 on: August 05, 2018, 06:30:49 PM »
I doubt it.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: August 05, 2018, 06:34:21 PM »
I mean, likely yes, the race is trending his way, and he only has a 5 point deficit.
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TarHeelDem
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2018, 02:45:31 AM »
I would be shocked if he didn't. The race will probably be rated Toss-Up by the beginning of October and a statistical tie going into Election Day.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2018, 02:46:14 AM »
Even if he doesn't improve from his current position, we get lots of junk polls. So probably.
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Skye
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2018, 08:09:25 AM »
PPP has him in the lead after they ask leading questions, so...
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2018, 08:53:11 AM »
We just got a run of three polls showing this a Cruz +2, +4, and +6 race.  The +4 and +6 were from pretty good pollsters.  If the race is really in that mid single-digit area, then it would be completely normal and within the MoE to get a small O'Rourke lead, even if the race doesn't tighten further.  I say yes.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: August 13, 2018, 11:32:21 AM »
Well, it happened, supposedly.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
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« Reply #17 on: August 13, 2018, 12:07:59 PM »
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: August 13, 2018, 02:18:08 PM »
This will be the surprise race of 2018, just like WI and PA were in 2016
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TheRocketRaccoon
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2018, 09:07:16 AM »
It's happened for real now I guess.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-statepolls/tightening-texas-race-boosts-democrats-hopes-of-taking-senate-reuters-poll-idUSKCN1LZ18B
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Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️
The Impartial Spectator
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2018, 11:05:33 AM »
I guess you can always count on the volatility of Reuters/Ipsos to show any result you want, as with the Sean Trende #redwave
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Xing
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« Reply #21 on: September 19, 2018, 11:53:48 AM »
A better question would've been whether he would lead in a single credible poll.
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andjey
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« Reply #22 on: September 19, 2018, 01:47:09 PM »
Quote from: MycroftCZ on August 05, 2018, 02:46:03 PM
I'm sure there'll be a poll that puts him up by 1 or 2 points and the media(and Atlas) will freak out and move the race into Likely Democratic and celebrate the rise of "Senator Beto O'Rourke". Then he'll lose by 6 in the GE
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: September 19, 2018, 03:48:15 PM »
Beto can win
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2018, 07:13:37 PM »
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 19, 2018, 11:53:48 AM
A better question would've been whether he would lead in a single credible poll.
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