Most likely DEM CD to flip from blue to red in 2018 midterms?

[ctrepublican512]

In every House cycle of the 21st century except 2006, both parties have flipped at least one seat, for a variety of circumstances. What DEM seat is **most likely** to flip? Just a question, no reason to freak out about the possibility of it happening.

[Doimper]

MN-08

[Politician]

MN-01, MN-08, and NH-01, but Democrats are the favorites to hold all 3. The others are Likely or Safe Democratic.

[Gass3268]

MN-01 is the only district that I am even slightly worried about.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NH-01, NV-03, NY-18

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

MN-08 is first, MN-01 a close second. Everything else is Safe.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Horsford beat Hardy in this year?

[Zaybay]

Not on the list, but Lamb's district is guaranteed to flip.


On the list.....MN-01

[Greedo punched first]

Not on the list, but Lamb's district is guaranteed to flip.


On the list.....MN-01

Lamb's old district flips, but Lamb has a good chance to flip Rothfus' district.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

MN-01 or MN-08 (not sure which is more likely than the other), but it would not surprise me if the Dems hold all of these seats.

[The Mikado]

Excluding Lamb's current seat (which as pointed out above is a guaranteed R pickup probably counterbalanced by Lamb winning Rothfus' seat), MN-01 and MN-08 are the only D seats up this year that are flip vulnerable.

Flip vulnerable this year, at least. Obviously, in other years, NV-02 being open would be Not Good.

[Greatblueheron]

MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, PA-08, PA-17, NV-03, and NH-01 could all flip if Democrats are underperforming.

[kph14]

If only one CD flips from blue to red in MN, it will be MN-01. MN-08 still elects tons of Democrats all across the ballot, MN-01 is much more Republican downballot

[Chief Justice Keef]

MN-1

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

MN-01, MN-07, MN-08, PA-08, PA-17, NV-03, and NH-01 could all flip if Democrats are underperforming.

As someone from this state, I see no reason to think Cartwright is even slightly vulnerable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MN districts are the ones that will flip, I can see them flip and Dems still have a small majority

[Greedo punched first]

Does Horsford win NV-04, or does it flip?

[Progressive Pessimist]

MN-01 or MN-08 (not sure which is more likely than the other), but it would not surprise me if the Dems hold all of these seats.

[LabourJersey]

MN-01 or MN-08. Conor Lamb is the only Democratic incumbent who's vulnerable

[mds32]

Cartwright. It'll be weird but I think that Barletta being at the top of the ticket, and with the area's lurch to the right will doom him. Not to mention Chrin is a good candidate.

[Lachi]

MN-01, but it doesn't matter, none will flip.

[morgieb]

PA-14.

Discounting that....either MN-01 or MN-08. MN-01 is more Republican but MN-08 might be more receptive to Trump's policies. I dunno. I think we're a good chance of keeping both though.

[Don Vito Corleone]

MN-01 is the only district that I am even slightly worried about.

[wesmoorenerd]

Does Horsford win NV-04, or does it flip?

Hardy has like a 5% chance of beating Horsford, and that's honestly pretty generous. That seat isn't flipping in this environment.

[Greedo punched first]

Does Horsford win NV-04, or does it flip?

Hardy has like a 5% chance of beating Horsford, and that's honestly pretty generous. That seat isn't flipping in this environment.

There were more votes in the NV-04 Democratic primary than in the GOP primary. Hardy couldn't even get a majority against a bunch of unknowns. Horsford should win. Horsford received a majority in a primary against a serious candidate, State Senator Pat Spearman.