Arizona as a Democratic trending state

[here2view]

I've read a lot how Arizona is trending Democratic and how Democrats could win it in 2020. However, from looking at 2016 compared to previous elections, Hillary's performance was pretty much in line with Obama, Kerry, and Gore. Essentially, the Democrat received around 44-45% in every election since 2000. Republicans were pretty much in the low 50's besides 2016, when there was an influx of 3rd partiers.

I'm undecided on if the state is really trending Democrat, so I'm interested in how it is (if you think so) because the results aren't as indicative of it.

[RINO Tom]

Forgive me for potentially putting words in anyone's mouth, but I think a lot of the assumption that Arizona would trend Democratic is based on the following two things:

1) CURRENT White college grads will continue to trend Democratic indefinitely (i.e., not just aging Millennials plus dying Baby Boomers fundamentally changing the makeup of the group defined as "White college grads" but rather current GOP voters among this group continuing to leave the GOP), especially post-Trump.  This is important because Arizona will likely continue to have an influx of wealthy conservatives ala Florida.

2) Arizona becoming more Hispanic than it already is.

Personally, I think both are dubious assumptions.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Arizona as a whole is trending Democratic due to White College Educated voters and a growing Latino population. However some of the rural counties are still trending Republican. (1/2)

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

(2/2)

[RINO Tom]

Arizona's White college grads voted Trump by a 50%-44% margin.  They voted for McCain in 2008 58%-41%.  While McCain was from AZ, it was also a way more Democratic year.  The question is will OLDER White college grads keep trending Democratic, as you say?  Democrats gained 3% since 2008 (I couldn't find anything for 2012).  Arizona will still continue to get older Republican retirees, so I think that will balance out younger Millennials, but that's just me.

[Zaybay]

It is trending Democratic, but its hard to see with percentages. Usually, its easier to see movement if you use raw voter tallies.

2000
R-782,000
D-685,000
(note: The Green got 3% of the vote)
2004
R-1,104,000(+332,000)
D-894,000(+209,000)
(note: this election is the height of the R sunbelt)
2008
R-1,230,000(+126,000)
D-1,034,000(+140,000)
2012
R-1,233,000(+3,000)
D-1,025,000(-9,000)
2016
R-1,252,000(+29,000)
D-1,161,000(+136,000)
(note: the L took 4% while the Green took 1%)

This way of looking at votes gives us a better insight into the trend of the state.
In 2000, Al Gore is able to get 45% of the vote, compared to Bush's 51%, but overall, the Left Parties got 48%.
2004 sees the height of the Republican Sunbelt, as states like GA, TX, NC, and AZ vote hard right.The Dems make some modest gains, but the R gains are rather powerful.
2008 has the rise of a large D wave, and many previously R states break. But the Sunbelt stays rather intact, and McCain's hold field advantage allows a modest gain.
2012 sees Obama lose voters in almost every state, including AZ. But the R vote is rather minuscule, and so nothing really changes.
2016 sees two unpopular presidential choices, and many D voters opt not to vote, which would later secure Trump's victory. 3rd parties see remarkable gains. In the sunbelt, however, its a different story. The Dems make the same gains they made in 2008,2004, and 2000, but the Rs barely gain. And while many might say this was just Rs voting for Clinton against Trump, most R neighborhoods and CDs vote the same way, indicating a growth in D voters. The L vote is also dubious, as many Ds also took the ballot for Gary Johnson. Overall, a great showing for Ds.

So, as we can see, there has been a D trend as of late, but its hard to see with percentages. The same can be said with WI, which percentages show has an R trend, but numbers wise, doesnt, and instead points to voter apathy. The special elections in AZ have also been highly promising, and show a D trend. The 2018 election will also be a good indicator on how things have changed.

AZ may well flip in 2020, and if you think this is rather ridiculous, VA and CO had the exact same thing occur to them.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It is trending Democratic, but its hard to see with percentages. Usually, its easier to see movement if you use raw voter tallies.

2000
R-782,000
D-685,000
(note: The Green got 3% of the vote)
2004
R-1,104,000(+332,000)
D-894,000(+209,000)
(note: this election is the height of the R sunbelt)
2008
R-1,230,000(+126,000)
D-1,034,000(+140,000)
2012
R-1,233,000(+3,000)
D-1,025,000(-9,000)
2016
R-1,252,000(+29,000)
D-1,161,000(+136,000)
(note: the L took 4% while the Green took 1%)

This way of looking at votes gives us a better insight into the trend of the state.
In 2000, Al Gore is able to get 45% of the vote, compared to Bush's 51%, but overall, the Left Parties got 48%.
2004 sees the height of the Republican Sunbelt, as states like GA, TX, NC, and AZ vote hard right.The Dems make some modest gains, but the R gains are rather powerful.
2008 has the rise of a large D wave, and many previously R states break. But the Sunbelt stays rather intact, and McCain's hold field advantage allows a modest gain.
2012 sees Obama lose voters in almost every state, including AZ. But the R vote is rather minuscule, and so nothing really changes.
2016 sees two unpopular presidential choices, and many D voters opt not to vote, which would later secure Trump's victory. 3rd parties see remarkable gains. In the sunbelt, however, its a different story. The Dems make the same gains they made in 2008,2004, and 2000, but the Rs barely gain. And while many might say this was just Rs voting for Clinton against Trump, most R neighborhoods and CDs vote the same way, indicating a growth in D voters. The L vote is also dubious, as many Ds also took the ballot for Gary Johnson. Overall, a great showing for Ds.

So, as we can see, there has been a D trend as of late, but its hard to see with percentages. The same can be said with WI, which percentages show has an R trend, but numbers wise, doesnt, and instead points to voter apathy. The special elections in AZ have also been highly promising, and show a D trend. The 2018 election will also be a good indicator on how things have changed.

AZ may well flip in 2020, and if you think this is rather ridiculous, VA and CO had the exact same thing occur to them.

This.  Great analysis.

[Devout Centrist]

Not to be too glib, but we saw a similar situation play out in Virginia back in 2006...Virginia's Democratic vote share had been stuck between 40% and 45% since 1992 and it was even worse in the 80's. In fact, the highest Democratic vote share in Virginia before 2008 and after 1964 was all the way back in 1976, when Carter got 47.5% of the vote.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The biggest difference between AZ and VA is that AZ is unlikely to turn sharply D like VA did. If Ds win AZ in 2020 it is likely to be a narrow, narrow win. The fact remains that AZ continues to draw hundreds of thousands of GOP-leaning retirees. Thus the Ds will face a hard ceiling.

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

It is trending Democratic, but its hard to see with percentages. Usually, its easier to see movement if you use raw voter tallies.

2000
R-782,000
D-685,000
(note: The Green got 3% of the vote)
2004
R-1,104,000(+332,000)
D-894,000(+209,000)
(note: this election is the height of the R sunbelt)
2008
R-1,230,000(+126,000)
D-1,034,000(+140,000)
2012
R-1,233,000(+3,000)
D-1,025,000(-9,000)
2016
R-1,252,000(+29,000)
D-1,161,000(+136,000)
(note: the L took 4% while the Green took 1%)

This way of looking at votes gives us a better insight into the trend of the state.
In 2000, Al Gore is able to get 45% of the vote, compared to Bush's 51%, but overall, the Left Parties got 48%.
2004 sees the height of the Republican Sunbelt, as states like GA, TX, NC, and AZ vote hard right.The Dems make some modest gains, but the R gains are rather powerful.
2008 has the rise of a large D wave, and many previously R states break. But the Sunbelt stays rather intact, and McCain's hold field advantage allows a modest gain.
2012 sees Obama lose voters in almost every state, including AZ. But the R vote is rather minuscule, and so nothing really changes.
2016 sees two unpopular presidential choices, and many D voters opt not to vote, which would later secure Trump's victory. 3rd parties see remarkable gains. In the sunbelt, however, its a different story. The Dems make the same gains they made in 2008,2004, and 2000, but the Rs barely gain. And while many might say this was just Rs voting for Clinton against Trump, most R neighborhoods and CDs vote the same way, indicating a growth in D voters. The L vote is also dubious, as many Ds also took the ballot for Gary Johnson. Overall, a great showing for Ds.

So, as we can see, there has been a D trend as of late, but its hard to see with percentages. The same can be said with WI, which percentages show has an R trend, but numbers wise, doesnt, and instead points to voter apathy. The special elections in AZ have also been highly promising, and show a D trend. The 2018 election will also be a good indicator on how things have changed.

AZ may well flip in 2020, and if you think this is rather ridiculous, VA and CO had the exact same thing occur to them.

In Maricopa County, the Dems gained 100K votes in 2016 from their 2012 numbers, while the GOP only gained 2K votes in 2016 from 2012.

[libertpaulian]

I think Colorado is a much more apt comparison than Virginia.  Both are Mountain West states with libertarian Republican heritages.  Colorado goes from voting reliably red since LBJ 1964 (with the exception of Clinton 1992) to voting for Bush narrowly in 2004.  Then, in 2008, it flips Dem HARD (Obama wins it by 9%, two points to the left of the national average) and never goes back.  Arizona has gone from voting reliably red since Harry Truman 1948 (with the exception of Clinton 1996) to voting for Trump narrowly in 2016.  Could 2020 be Arizona's "Colorado Moment"?

[cvparty]

it probably is trending D but i see it ending up a swing state, kinda like florida where a mass influx of retirees checks dem-favoring demographic trends

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yes, its Dem friendly and after McCain, it will have 2 Dem senators and with Kamala Harris on ticket, she can win it

[Progressive Pessimist]

it probably is trending D but i see it ending up a swing state, kinda like florida where a mass influx of retirees checks dem-favoring demographic trends

[I’m not Stu]

Whites in Arizona shifted D+8 in 2016. The Hispanic population in Maricopa County is growing. It might flip in 2020 or 2024.