NV-Suffolk: Laxalt (R) Leads 42-41
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  NV-Suffolk: Laxalt (R) Leads 42-41
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Author Topic: NV-Suffolk: Laxalt (R) Leads 42-41  (Read 1294 times)
mds32
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« on: July 31, 2018, 09:05:11 AM »


Nevada
Governor

Laxalt (R) 42%
Sisolak (D) 41%
Bundy (I) 2%
Best (IA) 2%
Lord (L) 1%

The 3rd parties are really dragging Laxalt down in this poll. It also confirms a recent Gravis poll that the race is tilted towards Laxalt.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2018, 10:10:24 AM »

SISOLAK wasnt the best candidate, this race was tailored made for Ross Miller
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Zaybay
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« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2018, 10:16:50 AM »


Nevada
Governor

Laxalt (R) 42%
Sisolak (D) 41%
Bundy (I) 2%
Best (IA) 2%
Lord (L) 1%

The 3rd parties are really dragging Laxalt down in this poll. It also confirms a recent Gravis poll that the race is tilted towards Laxalt.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf
Or, more likely, the same pollster, which is rated poorly, that gave Heller a lead by 1 point and didnt offer Spanish polling, and didnt poll enough Hispanics, and is polling in NV, doesnt have the best grip on what is going on in the state.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2018, 10:25:06 AM »

I just say that Ross Miller wouldnt be struggling right now, while Sisolak is
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #4 on: July 31, 2018, 10:25:50 AM »


Nevada
Governor

Laxalt (R) 42%
Sisolak (D) 41%
Bundy (I) 2%
Best (IA) 2%
Lord (L) 1%

The 3rd parties are really dragging Laxalt down in this poll. It also confirms a recent Gravis poll that the race is tilted towards Laxalt.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf
Or, more likely, the same pollster, which is rated poorly, that gave Heller a lead by 1 point and didnt offer Spanish polling, and didnt poll enough Hispanics, and is polling in NV, doesnt have the best grip on what is going on in the state.

I was under the impression Suffolk was a decent pollster.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #5 on: July 31, 2018, 10:30:15 AM »


Nevada
Governor

Laxalt (R) 42%
Sisolak (D) 41%
Bundy (I) 2%
Best (IA) 2%
Lord (L) 1%

The 3rd parties are really dragging Laxalt down in this poll. It also confirms a recent Gravis poll that the race is tilted towards Laxalt.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf
Or, more likely, the same pollster, which is rated poorly, that gave Heller a lead by 1 point and didnt offer Spanish polling, and didnt poll enough Hispanics, and is polling in NV, doesnt have the best grip on what is going on in the state.

I was under the impression Suffolk was a decent pollster.
Ah, NVM, looking at it, its a B+, which is better than I thought. My other reasoning is still valid.
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #6 on: July 31, 2018, 10:33:58 AM »


Nevada
Governor

Laxalt (R) 42%
Sisolak (D) 41%
Bundy (I) 2%
Best (IA) 2%
Lord (L) 1%

The 3rd parties are really dragging Laxalt down in this poll. It also confirms a recent Gravis poll that the race is tilted towards Laxalt.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf
Or, more likely, the same pollster, which is rated poorly, that gave Heller a lead by 1 point and didnt offer Spanish polling, and didnt poll enough Hispanics, and is polling in NV, doesnt have the best grip on what is going on in the state.

I was under the impression Suffolk was a decent pollster.
Ah, NVM, looking at it, its a B+, which is better than I thought. My other reasoning is still valid.

So is Emerson so I tend to take the ratings with a grain of salt.
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Sestak
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« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2018, 10:35:05 AM »

Yeah, letís pick the guy who cut education to build a stadium. What could possibly go wrong?
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YE
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« Reply #8 on: July 31, 2018, 10:39:42 AM »

Yeah, letís pick the guy who cut education to build a stadium. What could possibly go wrong?

Given this also has Heller up by the same margin and we know how NV polling is, this is't a bad poll for Sisolak.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2018, 10:49:16 AM »

Has everyone just forgot how bad polling is in general in Nevada? It has always been a case of average poll then add 2-3 points to the dem to get the expected outcome. This was an accepted fact a while back because Hispanics just have a lower response rate than their November numbers. The polls in the back half of October and November in 2016 were Trump+6, Clinton+3 and Tied. This average is way off of the end outcome.
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Skye
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« Reply #10 on: July 31, 2018, 11:12:11 AM »


Nevada
Governor

Laxalt (R) 42%
Sisolak (D) 41%
Bundy (I) 2%
Best (IA) 2%
Lord (L) 1%

The 3rd parties are really dragging Laxalt down in this poll. It also confirms a recent Gravis poll that the race is tilted towards Laxalt.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf
Or, more likely, the same pollster, which is rated poorly, that gave Heller a lead by 1 point and didnt offer Spanish polling, and didnt poll enough Hispanics, and is polling in NV, doesnt have the best grip on what is going on in the state.

Is every pollster bad in your eyes? Suffolk is a decent pollster all around.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 11:13:30 AM »

I find it funny that people who are saying that the Gov race is tilt-R, or the senate race being a tossup should note that this poll has 20% undecided. And its in NV.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2018, 11:15:16 AM »


Nevada
Governor

Laxalt (R) 42%
Sisolak (D) 41%
Bundy (I) 2%
Best (IA) 2%
Lord (L) 1%

The 3rd parties are really dragging Laxalt down in this poll. It also confirms a recent Gravis poll that the race is tilted towards Laxalt.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf
Or, more likely, the same pollster, which is rated poorly, that gave Heller a lead by 1 point and didnt offer Spanish polling, and didnt poll enough Hispanics, and is polling in NV, doesnt have the best grip on what is going on in the state.

Is every pollster bad in your eyes? Suffolk is a decent pollster all around.
I was going off the old ratings for that part. Suffolk is now a B+, same as Emerson.

But they didnt use Spanish, a critical error.

Monmouth and Quinipiac are my favorites, but I still like other pollsters. Its just that many are, well, bad.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2018, 11:24:06 AM »

Dems can obviously win this, but polling discrepancies are evening out and generic ballot which had Dems at a full blown wave was overstated with the conservatives and libertarian indies coming home for Kavanaugh
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2018, 12:42:04 PM »

Lol Bundy. That's within the MoE, isn't it?
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2018, 12:54:11 PM »

I think Laxalt is slightly favored, but things can change
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Cuca_Beludo
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« Reply #16 on: July 31, 2018, 01:33:04 PM »

I suppose Laxalt is in a better position than Heller, but I think Laxalt will lose this in the end. Bundy and Best are going to cost him the election.

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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: July 31, 2018, 01:45:49 PM »

Not necessarily, Laxalt is a better candidate than SISOLAK. 270 warned pollsters that Dems can win FL with Graham and lose NV due to SISOLAK
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Politician
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« Reply #18 on: July 31, 2018, 03:56:53 PM »

Lean D for now. Nevada polls are notoriously bad.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #19 on: July 31, 2018, 06:36:45 PM »

Why do people seem to think Laxalt is running away with this? This looks like a tossup to me, as it was always going to be.
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Boo-Boo Keys
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2018, 11:18:04 PM »

This was hilarious.

2014 NV-GOV Democratic primary results:
None of these candidates 30.0%
Bob Goodman 24.8%
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #21 on: August 03, 2018, 10:12:47 PM »

I don't know what to be more annoyed about:

1. Some people taking this poll as evidence that they should be worried.
2. People saying that since this is Nevada no poll like this out of the state will ever be accurate.
3. People reprimanding others for saying that Laxalt is in the lead when almost no one is saying that.
4. People overconfident that this is a slam dunk for any candidate.
5. People (who, once again, don't seem to have posted in this thread) who think Laxalt is some amazing, wave-defying candidate.
6. People who think that Laxalt being down by one means Sisolak is going to win this so easily.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #22 on: August 03, 2018, 10:17:21 PM »

I don't think a lot of y'all understand polls.  A lead of one point means absolutely nothing.  This just confirms that this is a tossup.  A lead of one point doesn't even mean that candidate is ahead at all, it's almost literally a tie.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: August 03, 2018, 11:34:17 PM »

I don't think a lot of y'all understand polls.  A lead of one point means absolutely nothing.  This just confirms that this is a tossup.  A lead of one point doesn't even mean that candidate is ahead at all, it's almost literally a tie.

And it means even less when both candidates are barely cracking 40%. And even less when the election is 3 months away.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #24 on: August 05, 2018, 03:34:28 PM »

Dems can obviously win this, but polling discrepancies are evening out and generic ballot which had Dems at a full blown wave was overstated with the conservatives and libertarian indies coming home for Kavanaugh

Someone's going on the ignore list.
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