NV-Suffolk: Heller +1

[adrac]

The age old question, was there a Spanish language option?

Anybody know?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Rosen is overly ambitious gunning for the senate months after joining the house. And any accusations of that obvious statement falls flat, because I also view Travis Childers and Tom Cotton as overly ambitious too (at least Cotton won for his sake but yeah). It has nothing to do with male or female or whatever else you think exists. I mean it is just overly ambitious and gives an air of thanks for the platform to seek higher office when one is a newcomer and barely even stays a few months before looking to jump to a higher office.

[Greatblueheron]

This race is starting to look like a Democratic recruitment failure. Honestly, who’s brilliant idea was it for a freshmen congresswoman to immediately seek a Senate seat?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This race is starting to look like a Democratic recruitment failure. Honestly, who’s brilliant idea was it for a freshmen congresswoman to immediately seek a Senate seat?

Agreed, and it has nothing to do with sexism, it's the freshman aspect. Like Sinema is a great candidate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CCM didnt lead until the final poll on election day.

[Ogre Mage]

The tendency for Democrats to underpoll in Nevada has been known for a long time.  This is a notoriously difficult state to poll accurately.  Especially given that most polls have shown Rosen leading (within the margin of error) it seems bizarre to freak out over one poll with incumbent Heller stuck at 41% with a one point lead.  LOL

[Atlas Force]

Good god this race really brings out the stupid in Atlas doesn’t it

[Hindsight was 2020]

The tendency for Democrats to underpoll in Nevada has been known for a long time.  This is a notoriously difficult state to poll accurately.  Especially given that most polls have shown Rosen leading (within the margin of error) it seems bizarre to freak out over one poll with incumbent Heller stuck at 41% with a one point lead.  LOL

STOP BRINGING LOGIC INTO THIS!!!!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are doing well in AZ, TN, MS and TX and having problems in NV and FL, normal trends may not hold this election, like with the Doug Jones election. And Bredesen can very well be elected, while at the same time Bill Nelson can lose. It's that type of year.

[CookieDamage]

This race is starting to look like a Democratic recruitment failure. Honestly, who’s brilliant idea was it for a freshmen congresswoman to immediately seek a Senate seat?

Shut up. He's leading by 1 and is considerably under 50.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This race is starting to look like a Democratic recruitment failure. Honestly, who’s brilliant idea was it for a freshmen congresswoman to immediately seek a Senate seat?

Shut up. He's leading by 1 and is considerably under 50.

Woah dude, calm down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Heller is a maverick and he can survive. But, dems have also TN and AZ as pickup chances

[IceSpear]

The tendency for Democrats to underpoll in Nevada has been known for a long time.  This is a notoriously difficult state to poll accurately.  Especially given that most polls have shown Rosen leading (within the margin of error) it seems bizarre to freak out over one poll with incumbent Heller stuck at 41% with a one point lead.  LOL

Atlas is obsessed with NV being a Republican state for some reason, despite Democrats winning every competitive race there in 2016. There was the same hand wringing in late 2016 about how Sen. Heck was inevitable and Dems were going to need to make up for the loss in NC, FL, or MO. lol

[Politician]

Heller is a maverick and he can survive. But, dems have also TN and AZ as pickup chances

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump-score/dean-heller/
Heller votes with Trump 92% of the time. Not exactly a "maverick".

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Rosen will probably win, but it's obviously not safe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton only won by 2 points in NV, with Sisolak as a candidate, this race is much closer than it should be.

[NevadanAtHeart]

A few things to consider for those uninitiated into Nevadan politics:

1. Culinary Union 226 might be one of the most powerful locals-only unions in the country. It has 57,000 members and is remarkably good at unified mobilization. In a recent strike authorization vote, 99% of those who were mobilized voted for the motion. They usually spike their GOTV and other mobilization efforts closer to the election, so for Senator Heller to be this far under 50% and barely leading a freshman Representative with less than two years of political experience BEFORE 226 gets involved is... not good for him.

2. Governor Sandoval is a VERY well-liked individual here in the state. There are two ways his absence could go: The lack of certainty that he brought to the election could mobilize more voters on both sides, which would probably be good for Democrats. OR nobody could care as much anymore, and apathy would increase, which would probably be good for Republicans.

3. Nevada is VERY hard to poll relatively speaking. Somehow I feel like the mood on the ground is quite a bit different than what the polls show. That being said, this is irrelevant because you can't really prove the degree to which it's going to impact this race. Anyone who brings this up seriously as a point in their favor isn't saying anything but "wellll we don't really know what's happening" so if they use it in favor of Rosen or Heller they have no idea what they're talking about.

4. Sisolak is, from what I hear, a very uninspiring candidate. He's not a terribly good campaigner, and he's not terribly compelling as a person. Nevada seems to have a bit of an obsession with youth and charisma, more so than most places. We're very easily fired up. So Laxalt might have bigger coattails to ride.

5. Sisolak had a big presence after 1 October, though, so while I hope he doesn't use that politically, it may leave a good note in some mouths.

6. Here's the x-factor that I think may soon come into play. Las Vegas in particular is one of the fastest-growing cities in the nation, especially for first-generation Americans like myself. Its school district is extremely large and has been for quite some time. Since the 2016 election, many students have turned 18, many of whom have likely not found their way into most polls. Make of this what you will, but I think this will tilt the scales for Rep. Rosen, even if she's a bad candidate ("I just want to vote against Heller/the GOP agenda") or even if Laxalt is a good candidate for coattails (his campaign is "remember Gov. Sandoval? yeah, anything but that").

[junior chįmp]

Lawd Jesus...Heller isnt going to win you guys. The national environment determines the outcomes of elections. Nobody cares about how charismatic Rosen is as long as Trump is in the White House.

[Zaybay]

Lawd Jesus...Heller isnt going to win you guys. The national environment determines the outcomes of elections. Nobody cares about how charismatic Rosen is as long as Trump is in the White House.

[Atlas Force]

Lawd Jesus...Heller isnt going to win you guys. The national environment determines the outcomes of elections. Nobody cares about how charismatic Rosen is as long as Trump is in the White House.

[IceSpear]

Lawd Jesus...Heller isnt going to win you guys. The national environment determines the outcomes of elections. Nobody cares about how charismatic Rosen is as long as Trump is in the White House.

[ON Progressive]

Lawd Jesus...Heller isnt going to win you guys. The national environment determines the outcomes of elections. Nobody cares about how charismatic Rosen is as long as Trump is in the White House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its NV, when was the last time it elected a Dem governor, since the 1990's. Rosen is on the same ticket as Sisolak. Its a pure tossup😀

[Politician]

Lawd Jesus...Heller isnt going to win you guys. The national environment determines the outcomes of elections. Nobody cares about how charismatic Rosen is as long as Trump is in the White House.

[InheritTheWind]

Its NV, when was the last time it elected a Dem governor, since the 1990's. Rosen is on the same ticket as Sisolak. Its a pure tossup😀

How many times are you just gonna repeat the same half-baked talking point, just slightly rephrased?