NV-Suffolk: Heller +1

[JRP1994]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Suffolk_Nevada_July_2018_27823.pdf

Heller: 41%
Rosen: 40%

[Sir Mohamed]

New Suffolk poll on NV-Sen

Dean Heller (R, inc.): 41%
Jacky Rosen (D): 40%

Sample size: 500 LV
MoE: 4.4%

RCP, PDF download avaiable


Tossup, but not bad for the dude's approval rating. Probably more competative than AZ for the moment.

[BudgieForce]

The age old question, was there a Spanish language option?

[Zaybay]

My thoughts:

Just like to note that the difference from Rosen's votes and Heller's votes in the survey is only 5 people, and well within the margin of error.

The gubernatorial numbers were almost the exact same, which suggests polarization.

Heller's net approval is around -6, which is a bit unrealistic.

I cant figure out if they asked in Spanish, but due to numbers, Im leaning towards no.

[KingSweden]

I find it increasingly unlikely there is a Senate/Governor Split in Nevada

[krazen1211]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

[BudgieForce]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

Of barely winning against flawed candidates. Why do you always leave our details Krazen?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Hahahahahahahaha, absolutely no shot. Nevada polling!

[Free Bird]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

Of barely winning against flawed candidates. Why do you always leave our details Krazen?

Pot, meet Kettle.

[pbrower2a]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

But Nevada has also been drifting D over the last few decades, largely due to the steady increase in the Hispanic electorate especially in Greater Las Vegas and Greater Reno. The image that you have of Nevada as "cowboy country" applies to cattle, sagebrush, and irrigated farming... and it is not where the voters are.

Look at the vote totals for Robert "B1 Bob" Dornan in his California district. He could win as a Reaganite Democrat in his district in southern California for years, and he was by all accounts a crafty and shrewd politician able to get the vote out.Eventually the demographics defeated him.

That is how Nevada is going.

[BudgieForce]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

Of barely winning against flawed candidates. Why do you always leave our details Krazen?

Pot, meet Kettle.

Of course. Heller isn't Angle and Rosen isn't Berkeley(?)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

People keep forgetting that while Rosen has an advantage she's no lock.

[Skye]

This is still a tossup, but the fact that Heller is always polling so low isn't good news for him.

[Tender Branson]

In strong Democratic years - like this one - NV has a tendency to underpoll.

Adjusted for this fact, Rosen and Sisolak probably lead by 4-5 points in reality.

[JRP1994]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

But Nevada has also been drifting D over the last few decades, largely due to the steady increase in the Hispanic electorate especially in Greater Las Vegas and Greater Reno. The image that you have of Nevada as "cowboy country" applies to cattle, sagebrush, and irrigated farming... and it is not where the voters are.

Look at the vote totals for Robert "B1 Bob" Dornan in his California district. He could win as a Reaganite Democrat in his district in southern California for years, and he was by all accounts a crafty and shrewd politician able to get the vote out.Eventually the demographics defeated him.

That is how Nevada is going.

That's not universally true. At the Presidential level, Nevada trended Republican in 2012 and 2016.

[Zaybay]

I find it funny that people who are saying that the Gov race is tilt-R, or the senate race being a tossup should note that this poll has 20% undecided. And its in NV.

[Beet]

Ah yes. Rosen is a bad candidate, and I'm getting flashbacks to 2010.

[BudgieForce]

Ah yes. Rosen is a bad candidate, and I'm getting flashbacks to 2010.

What?

Heller is nowhere near as good as Reid and Rosen is nowhere near as bad as Angle. I dont think you have a good grasp of this race Beet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In strong Democratic years - like this one - NV has a tendency to underpoll.

Adjusted for this fact, Rosen and Sisolak probably lead by 4-5 points in reality.

Sisolak hasnt lead in a single poll

[Politician]

Why has this poll been added, but not the Marist polls?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Why has this poll been added, but not the Marist polls?

Also the ones from last month in Florida and Arizona? This one looks good for the Republicans so Atlas will waste no time putting it in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TN &AZ might be better pickups due to them being open seats rather than incumbent based.😁

[Beet]

Ah yes. Rosen is a bad candidate, and I'm getting flashbacks to 2010.

What?

Heller is nowhere near as good as Reid and Rosen is nowhere near as bad as Angle. I dont think you have a good grasp of this race Beet.

And we also don't have a 10% unemployment rate. No, I have a grasp of the race. I called this as more favorable to Republicans than Arizona a year ago, when most were thinking the opposite. But Rosen could still win.

[Greatblueheron]

If Democrats can’t defeat Dean Heller, they better brace for a disappointing night.

[MT Treasurer]

Makes sense imo. It might be a massive Democratic wave year, but Jacky Rosen has turned out to be a rather, well, uninspiring candidate, to put it mildly. Then again, Heller is basically a rockstar, I doubt he was ever going to lose anyway, even in a D wave. Even Shelley Berkley couldn’t beat him in 2012 of all years.