NV-Suffolk: Heller +1

[DrScholl]

Rock star? The man posted a tweet saying how Rosen wanted to turn Nevada into a nuclear waste dump with no supporting evidence. Not exactly a winning move.

[Blair]

I'm still convinced that Democrats are making a mistake in assuming this is an easy pick up- Heller is a slimeball, but this is going to be a tight race until the end.

[Bidenworth2020]

24. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
(N=500) n %
Approve ----------------------------------------------------------- 234 46.80
Disapprove ------------------------------------------------------- 242 48.40
Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------24 4.80
25. Do you believe Donald Trump has kept his campaign promises in Nevada?
(N=500) n %
Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 238 47.60
No------------------------------------------------------------------- 196 39.20
Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------66 13.20

lmao, disregard this

[IceSpear]

Wow, Heller at an impressive 41% of the vote as an incumbent Senator. Such domination.

Safe R -> Titanium R

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

24. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
(N=500) n %
Approve ----------------------------------------------------------- 234 46.80
Disapprove ------------------------------------------------------- 242 48.40
Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------24 4.80
25. Do you believe Donald Trump has kept his campaign promises in Nevada?
(N=500) n %
Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 238 47.60
No------------------------------------------------------------------- 196 39.20
Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------66 13.20

lmao, disregard this

Dang those crosstrabs, lol Rosen will probably win by 3, but don't rule Heller out yet.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Still Lean D, though I'll note that leaves a notable possibility that he really is an unbeatable titan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AZ and TN, Dems can afford to lose NV or the any of the three

[krazen1211]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

Of barely winning against flawed candidates. Why do you always leave our details Krazen?

No, Dean Heller has been winning elections against the Democrat party for a generation in the state of Nevada by various margins, including by 31 points in the 2010 election.

[DrScholl]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

Of barely winning against flawed candidates. Why do you always leave our details Krazen?

No, Dean Heller has been winning elections against the Democrat party for a generation in the state of Nevada by various margins, including by 31 points in the 2010 election.

He ran in Thailand? He must really be a good candidate if he beat the Democrat Party.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Another tossup remains a tossup.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Heller has a large history of winning Nevada elections.

But Nevada has also been drifting D over the last few decades, largely due to the steady increase in the Hispanic electorate especially in Greater Las Vegas and Greater Reno. The image that you have of Nevada as "cowboy country" applies to cattle, sagebrush, and irrigated farming... and it is not where the voters are.

Look at the vote totals for Robert "B1 Bob" Dornan in his California district. He could win as a Reaganite Democrat in his district in southern California for years, and he was by all accounts a crafty and shrewd politician able to get the vote out.Eventually the demographics defeated him.

That is how Nevada is going. E

Actually from 2012 to 2016 Nevada shifted Reublican.  I believe Rubio would have carried it.

Heller is one great campaigner.  Rosen may be a flawed candidate.  I believe a number of Nevada residents like having a Democrat and a Republican Senator.   Some small state residents are  like that.  I realize this aids Democrats in North Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This helps Sinema, Nelson, Bredesen too. Take the Dems to majority without NV.

[South Dakota Democrat]

This helps Sinema, Nelson, Bredesen too. Take the Dems to majority without NV.

How does this help Sinema, Nelson, and Bredesen?

[Pericles]

Too many undecideds, plus Nevada polling being crap. Keeping it at Lean Rosen but Rosen isn't inevitable. Especially since Hispanics tend to have lower midterm turnout while college-educated whites have higher turnout, so while Democrats may benefit from this in some places they may be hampered in Nevada.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sinema, Nelson and Bredeson who are spectacular candidates than Rosen, has a much better chance taking Dems to majority; also, they come from split party control states. Where Rosen obviously has CCM to contend with😁

[Arkansas Yankee]

This helps Sinema, Nelson, Bredesen too. Take the Dems to majority without NV.

Florida is a big state.  This factor is really not a factor there.

Arizona and Tennessee are not small.  They are not large either.  So it may be a factor, but smaller.  

I would not bet the bank on Tennessee or Florida, if l were you.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Female candidates underpoll male candidates and Blackburn hasnt lead in a single poll. FL, is a different story, Scott will keep it close, its a tossup.

[Arkansas Yankee]

I also wonder is Nevada ready for 2 female Senators. 

[AtorBoltox]

Junk crosstabs

[InheritTheWind]

Good god this race really brings out the stupid in Atlas doesn’t it

[Zaybay]

Good god this race really brings out the stupid in Atlas doesn’t it

[Xing]

Yep, totally believable. Nevada polls never have a Republican bias, just ask Senators Angle and Heck!

Good god this race really brings out the stupid in Atlas doesn’t it

Some states always seem to do this, like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Missouri.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rosen isnt as great of a candidate and neither is Sisolak

[IceSpear]

Good god this race really brings out the stupid in Atlas doesn’t it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not every race is gonna flow the way its suppose to in this era. Including NV.