FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead

[Arkansas Yankee]

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.

Sour grapes.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.

Sour grapes.

Not exactly, this gives my team blue a small window inside the gears and cogs of this race, and shows that we could still eek out with a last minute bombardment instead of completely ditching it. If the lead was out of the moe by now, Nelson would be abandoned, but seeing that Scott is barely ahead and only shifted the race 3-4 points after huffing and puffing like the wolf, shows that Nelson has a very good chance of eeking it out if he makes a last minute push with everything he and the national party has got. Scott's lead size really matters in the war room.

The problem is that with his status as an incumbent and an astronaut in a Democratic year, he should not have to rely on $.

He looks and acts old.

If a voter voted for Rubio in 2016, why would that voter not tend to be a Scott voter.   That does cause the old man a problem.  The fact he has to rely in any way on his status as an astronaut just shows how old he is.

Even tho Scott supported Trump in the 2016 primary, he has a separate personal image that has become attractive over the years.

[Arkansas Yankee]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

THE RCP AVERAGE OF SIX POLLS IS SCOTT +1.2.

I still rate it as toss up, but hopeful.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The gender gap Is amazing.

Men Scott +21
Women Nelson +15

Must be different conversations in barber shops and beauty salons.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Can anyone tell me the nature of Nelson’s campaign.  Is he being very energectic with several events everyday.  Or is campaigning like an old man with one or two events and then rest.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Senator Rick Scott.

Sounds good.

[Arkansas Yankee]

If Nelson wants to come away with a win he's going to have to do it dirty. For some inexplicable reason Republicans in Florida give absolutely no mind to Rick Scott's past. Nelson needs to do anything and everything he can to swing every undecided voter to his corner. I'm sorry but the guy is nothing more than a crook and I detest every minute that he hold office in Florida.

Did you support Hillary in the ‘16 primary.  If so do not complain about crooks!

[Arkansas Yankee]

Senator Rick Scott.

Sounds good.

Do you think if schuylkill scott wins be a one termer or will he run for reelection in 2024?

Honestly I'd rather have Scott retire, have DeSantis take on Nelson, and have Bondi as Governor. But things didn't work out that way. But to answer your question, Scott's going to be DOA in 2024, especially if Trump is still President. He doesn't strike me as a natural legislator. He's a much stronger administratively in an executive position.

You might be right.  Except I think Scott is a hard worker at whatever he does.

I do not think Trump will be President in 2024. He will not be re-elected or if re-elected he will die in office.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The polling in this race is in the process of following similar pattern to the Rubio race in 2016:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/fl/florida_senate_rubio_vs_murphy-5222.html#polls
 

An interesting point is that Mason Dixon ran its last poll in the Rubio case was in late September.  It had Rubio a head by +7.  Rubio won by 7.7.

I have said it be before and will say it again, if a voter voted for Rubio in 2016 there his a strong possibility and inclination that you will vote for Scott.

Please do not allege that I am saying this is a given.