FL-Sen, Mason-Dixon: Scott in the lead

[krazen1211]

The last poll these guys did was of Southern Hispanic Floridians, and got Scott+3, so I am not really inclined to put much stock in a B- Pollster.

That is of course a typical result for Florida. Marco Rubio won many heavily Hispanic districts in Dade County in the last Florida Senate election.

[BudgieForce]

The last poll these guys did was of Southern Hispanic Floridians, and got Scott+3, so I am not really inclined to put much stock in a B- Pollster.

That is of course a typical result for Florida. Marco Rubio won many heavily Hispanic districts in Dade County in the last Florida Senate election.

Rubio also won by 8 points, in a close race like this I'm not sure how usual Republican leaning Hispanics will vote.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.

Sour grapes.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.

Sour grapes.

Not exactly, this gives my team blue a small window inside the gears and cogs of this race, and shows that we could still eek out with a last minute bombardment instead of completely ditching it. If the lead was out of the moe by now, Nelson would be abandoned, but seeing that Scott is barely ahead and only shifted the race 3-4 points after huffing and puffing like the wolf, shows that Nelson has a very good chance of eeking it out if he makes a last minute push with everything he and the national party has got. Scott's lead size really matters in the war room.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.

Sour grapes.

Not exactly, this gives my team blue a small window inside the gears and cogs of this race, and shows that we could still eek out with a last minute bombardment instead of completely ditching it. If the lead was out of the moe by now, Nelson would be abandoned, but seeing that Scott is barely ahead and only shifted the race 3-4 points after huffing and puffing like the wolf, shows that Nelson has a very good chance of eeking it out if he makes a last minute push with everything he and the national party has got. Scott's lead size really matters in the war room.

The problem is that with his status as an incumbent and an astronaut in a Democratic year, he should not have to rely on $.

He looks and acts old.

If a voter voted for Rubio in 2016, why would that voter not tend to be a Scott voter.   That does cause the old man a problem.  The fact he has to rely in any way on his status as an astronaut just shows how old he is.

Even tho Scott supported Trump in the 2016 primary, he has a separate personal image that has become attractive over the years.

[Adam Griffin]

Mason-Dixon used to be a decent pollster (before cell phone polling became a thing); seems like they never really adapted properly to it.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Scott has a MoE lead. He's also outspending Nelson 3 to 1. I think it'll be close, but the national environment will be enough to carry Nelson to the finish line.

Yeah, you'd think he'd be up by more given the spending discrepancy.

Sour grapes.

Not exactly, this gives my team blue a small window inside the gears and cogs of this race, and shows that we could still eek out with a last minute bombardment instead of completely ditching it. If the lead was out of the moe by now, Nelson would be abandoned, but seeing that Scott is barely ahead and only shifted the race 3-4 points after huffing and puffing like the wolf, shows that Nelson has a very good chance of eeking it out if he makes a last minute push with everything he and the national party has got. Scott's lead size really matters in the war room.

The problem is that with his status as an incumbent and an astronaut in a Democratic year, he should not have to rely on $.

He looks and acts old.

If a voter voted for Rubio in 2016, why would that voter not tend to be a Scott voter.   That does cause the old man a problem.  The fact he has to rely in any way on his status as an astronaut just shows how old he is.

Even tho Scott supported Trump in the 2016 primary, he has a separate personal image that has become attractive over the years.

These are all fair points which is why scott has a very solid chance at victory and  nelson has to count on a blue wave giving him a friendlier electorate than 2016, peeling off some moderates who are turned off about the gun issue, and taking more hispanics, bevause I know some black republicans who were for obama just because he was black and hopefully there is some affinity among hispanics and rubio like this that Nelson will be able to peel off. These are all very possible things for Nelson to do in order to overcome this challenge and win another term, but they are hard and Nelson's campaign is not where it needs to be. He is running a campaign like a 90s Florida and it is making me more concerned by the day.

[Arkansas Yankee]

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THE RCP AVERAGE OF SIX POLLS IS SCOTT +1.2.

I still rate it as toss up, but hopeful.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The gender gap Is amazing.

Men Scott +21
Women Nelson +15

Must be different conversations in barber shops and beauty salons.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Yeah, this feels accurate. Hard to see the race as being better than a tossup, probably tilt R if we're being fair.

It may be tilt R today, but I still think it becomes a tossup as the campaign goes on. But I'm a pessimist

[Adam Griffin]

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THE RCP AVERAGE OF SIX POLLS IS SCOTT +1.2.

I still rate it as toss up, but hopeful.

Personally, I believe only 2 of those 6 polls are worth considering based on pollster credibility: the NBC/Marist and CBS/YouGov polls. That shows Scott ahead by half a point, which is of course no meaningfully different than the +1.2 result from the last 6 polls. Nevertheless, garbage pollsters are garbage pollsters - and even if they end up being right, it doesn't mean they were right because they knew what they were doing.

At any rate, I was merely commenting on the s[inks]ttiness of Mason-Dixon in general: not the specific result. We don't get many polls from them these days and therefore not many opportunities to remind people that they're now a garbage pollster. It's obvious that this is a close race. I would point out that at this point in an election cycle, fundamentals generally are a better indicator of performance than polling.

[Arkansas Yankee]

Can anyone tell me the nature of Nelson’s campaign.  Is he being very energectic with several events everyday.  Or is campaigning like an old man with one or two events and then rest.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Can anyone tell me the nature of Nelson’s campaign.  Is he being very energectic with several events everyday.  Or is campaigning like an old man with one or two events and then rest.

More of the second.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

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THE RCP AVERAGE OF SIX POLLS IS SCOTT +1.2.

I still rate it as toss up, but hopeful.

Personally, I believe only 2 of those 6 polls are worth considering based on pollster credibility: the NBC/Marist and CBS/YouGov polls. That shows Scott ahead by half a point, which is of course no meaningfully different than the +1.2 result from the last 6 polls. Nevertheless, garbage pollsters are garbage pollsters - and even if they end up being right, it doesn't mean they were right because they knew what they were doing.

At any rate, I was merely commenting on the s[inks]ttiness of Mason-Dixon in general: not the specific result. We don't get many polls from them these days and therefore not many opportunities to remind people that they're now a garbage pollster. It's obvious that this is a close race. I would point out that at this point in an election cycle, fundamentals generally are a better indicator of performance than polling.

A little odd that they are one of the non cell phone pollsters and they are one of the pollsters that found Clinton up in all of their 2016 polls of  FL

[Brittain33]

If a voter voted for Rubio in 2016, why would that voter not tend to be a Scott voter. 

You can’t apply a presidential electorate to a midterm election. Millions of Floridians who voted for Rubio or Murphy won’t bother to vote this year because there’s no President on the ballot. My favorite illustration of how this works is that Scott Brown won no more votes in 2010 winning a senate race than McCain won while losing Massachusetts in a landslide in 2008.

But beside that, there are other reasons. Plenty of people voted for Rubio to be a check on an expected President Clinton. Plenty of others voted for Rubio because they felt the Republican Party was best aligned with the interests of the Cuban American community. In 2018, Trump has given both groups of voters to reconsider their past choices.

[Zaybay]

Can anyone tell me the nature of Nelson’s campaign.  Is he being very energectic with several events everyday.  Or is campaigning like an old man with one or two events and then rest.

I would say a bit more of the first than the second, but it is a combo of both. To be honest, the Nelson campaign has not been asleep, or forgetting about its voters. Most of that comes from a Politico article that caused Atlas to go insane. The next day, Nelson released an ad in Spanish, and Atlas was silent of that fact.

Also, I dont see whats wrong with reminding voters who you are. Nelson is a rather....forgettable senator. In a growing state, whats wrong with reminding the electorate that you are an astronaut? Bredesen is still introducing to voters, as is Heitkamp. Were only starting the mid campaign phase, so attack ads are not really necessary.

Is Nelson lackluster? Yes. Is he giving up the seat and campaigning in the 90s? No.

[MT Treasurer]

Poll shows Cramer +4 - "ND is too Republican/polarized for Heitkamp to win, will Heitkamp be the only Democratic Senator who loses on election night?, even Bredesen might be more likely to win at this point"

Poll shows Scott +4 - "Obvious FL-SEN 2006/2012/VA-GOV 2017 redux, Likely/Safe D once Nelson starts running ads, Nelson is clearly playing 10D chess, Connie Mack 2.0, Mack and Harris were ahead this point in 2006 and 2012 too!, Scott only won by 1 in GOP wave years"

[Alabama_Indy10]

Poll shows Cramer +4 - "ND is too Republican/polarized for Heitkamp to win, will Heitkamp be the only Democratic Senator who loses on election night?, even Bredesen might be more likely to win at this point"

Poll shows Scott +4 - "Obvious FL-SEN 2006/2012/VA-GOV 2017 redux, Likely/Safe D once Nelson starts running ads, Nelson is clearly playing 10D chess, Connie Mack 2.0, Mack and Harris were ahead this point in 2006 and 2012 too!, Scott only won by 1 in GOP wave years"

[TheSaint250]

Except for maybe the occasional ad, I haven't heard much about Nelson down here.

Then again, I am in Republican-firm SWFL and all attention is on the gubernatorial primary right now.

[BudgieForce]

Except for maybe the occasional ad, I haven't heard much about Nelson down here.

Then again, I am in Republican-firm SWFL and all attention is on the gubernatorial primary right now.

To preface this, I'm in Broward County.
Ive seen ads against Rick Scott, but I dont think I've see any ads directly in support of Bill Nelson. I have noticed the amount of anti Rick Scotts ads increasing in recent weeks though.

[Lachi]

Wake up Bill come the frig on!

He is keeping his powder dry for the home stretch I feel, to go all guns blazing once Scott's message starts running dry.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Except for maybe the occasional ad, I haven't heard much about Nelson down here.

Then again, I am in Republican-firm SWFL and all attention is on the gubernatorial primary right now.

To preface this, I'm in Broward County.
Ive seen ads against Rick Scott, but I dont think I've see any ads directly in support of Bill Nelson. I have noticed the amount of anti Rick Scotts ads increasing in recent weeks though.

SCHUYLKILL SCOTT

[Greatblueheron]

Right now, I’d say this race is still a Tossup, albeit, with a small but decisive edge for Rick Scott.

[TheSaint250]

Except for maybe the occasional ad, I haven't heard much about Nelson down here.

Then again, I am in Republican-firm SWFL and all attention is on the gubernatorial primary right now.

To preface this, I'm in Broward County.
Ive seen ads against Rick Scott, but I dont think I've see any ads directly in support of Bill Nelson. I have noticed the amount of anti Rick Scotts ads increasing in recent weeks though.

You know, now that you mention it, I think I recall an ad like that, too. Haven't seen many, though.

[Use Your Illusion]

If Nelson wants to come away with a win he's going to have to do it dirty. For some inexplicable reason Republicans in Florida give absolutely no mind to Rick Scott's past. Nelson needs to do anything and everything he can to swing every undecided voter to his corner. I'm sorry but the guy is nothing more than a crook and I detest every minute that he hold office in Florida.