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  Talk Elections
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  WI-Emerson Polling: Baldwin +14/+9
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Author Topic: WI-Emerson Polling: Baldwin +14/+9  (Read 1505 times)
Jeppe
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« on: July 30, 2018, 08:23:45 am »

Tammy Baldwin - 50%
Leah Vukmir - 36%

Tammy Baldwin - 49%
Kevin Nicholson - 40%

Leah Vukmir - 35%
Kevin Nicholson - 35%

Emerson thinks that Vukmir has the edge in the primary, as she leads 40-32 among people most likely to vote.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2018, 09:01:47 am »

Safe D if Vukmir wins the primary, Likely D with Nicholson.
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ltomlinson31
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2018, 09:40:07 am »

They also have the Generic Ballot at D+10 (48-38%) in Wisconsin.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2018, 09:44:02 am »

Hmm. I wonder what a double digit Baldwin win looks like. I guess the Supreme Court race? So basically her 2012 map plus Brown, Racine and a few odd northern ones?

Take her race in 2012 add some healthy wins in Brown and Outagamie counties, coming close in St. Criox County, stronger wins in the Southwest and Dane County, and improvement in the WOW counties as there has been some permenant Republican bleeding here. I expect Racine County to go Republican across the board as it is one of few places were Foxconn is popular.
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President Biden
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2018, 10:38:51 am »

Hmm. I wonder what a double digit Baldwin win looks like. I guess the Supreme Court race? So basically her 2012 map plus Brown, Racine and a few odd northern ones?
Win most of the counties, except WOW, the conservative area between Madison and Milwaukee, and a couple weird northern counties.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2018, 10:54:59 am »

®Top Senate Race of 2018®, everyone Roll Eyes
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President Biden
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« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2018, 02:02:30 pm »

®Top Senate Race of 2018®, everyone Roll Eyes
#BaldwinUnder50
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2018, 06:05:41 pm »

Emerson thinks that Vukmir has the edge in the primary, as she leads 40-32 among people most likely to vote.

That's not surprising. The Milwaukee metro area tends to dominate in Republican primaries, and that's Vukmir's base. Which is great news for Baldwin and Evers.
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2018, 06:37:18 pm »

Emerson thinks that Vukmir has the edge in the primary, as she leads 40-32 among people most likely to vote.

That's not surprising. The Milwaukee metro area tends to dominate in Republican primaries, and that's Vukmir's base. Which is great news for Baldwin and Evers.

Also great news for Randy Bryce (WI-01), Dan Kohl (WI-06), Margaret Engebretson (WI-07), and Beau Liegeois (WI-08).
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2018, 06:40:17 pm »

Interesting note: Both Randy Bryce and Margaret Engebretson are semi-active users on Daily Kos.
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Thunder98
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2018, 06:46:26 pm »

Hmm. I wonder what a double digit Baldwin win looks like. I guess the Supreme Court race? So basically her 2012 map plus Brown, Racine and a few odd northern ones?

Take her race in 2012 add some healthy wins in Brown and Outagamie counties, coming close in St. Criox County, stronger wins in the Southwest and Dane County, and improvement in the WOW counties as there has been some permenant Republican bleeding here. I expect Racine County to go Republican across the board as it is one of few places were Foxconn is popular.


How about Marathon County?
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 01:14:32 pm »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
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Zaybay
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« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2018, 02:00:23 pm »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2018, 02:38:05 pm »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.

What are you talking about? There's a large block of Democratic-leaning polls in the database already.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2018, 02:40:47 pm »
« Edited: July 31, 2018, 09:05:07 pm by PittsburghSteel »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.

What are you talking about? There's a large block of Democratic-leaning polls in the database already.

Every time a poll showing good results for Rs is released, itís almost immediately added. Itís been a day since this poll was released and itís still not in the database. There are Marist polls for Florida, Tennessee, and Arizona that were released last month and they still havenít been added IIRC.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2018, 08:58:07 pm »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.

What are you talking about? There's a large block of Democratic-leaning polls in the database already.

Every time a poll showing good results for Rs is released, itís almost immediately added. Itís been a day since this poll was released and itís still not in the database. There are Marist polls for Florida, Tennessee, and Florida that were released last month and they still havenít been added IIRC.

I see. The most recent polls in the database are those that are Republican-leaning, and it is a legitimate complaint.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2018, 12:18:09 am »

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Emerson College on 2018-07-28

Summary: D: 50%, R: 36%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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