|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 05, 2020, 11:58:40 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  WI-Emerson Polling: Baldwin +14/+9
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: WI-Emerson Polling: Baldwin +14/+9  (Read 1584 times)
Jeppe
Bosse
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,771
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 30, 2018, 08:23:45 AM »

Tammy Baldwin - 50%
Leah Vukmir - 36%

Tammy Baldwin - 49%
Kevin Nicholson - 40%

Leah Vukmir - 35%
Kevin Nicholson - 35%

Emerson thinks that Vukmir has the edge in the primary, as she leads 40-32 among people most likely to vote.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,701
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2018, 09:01:47 AM »

Safe D if Vukmir wins the primary, Likely D with Nicholson.
Logged
ltomlinson31
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 423
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2018, 09:40:07 AM »

They also have the Generic Ballot at D+10 (48-38%) in Wisconsin.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,649
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2018, 09:44:02 AM »

Hmm. I wonder what a double digit Baldwin win looks like. I guess the Supreme Court race? So basically her 2012 map plus Brown, Racine and a few odd northern ones?

Take her race in 2012 add some healthy wins in Brown and Outagamie counties, coming close in St. Criox County, stronger wins in the Southwest and Dane County, and improvement in the WOW counties as there has been some permenant Republican bleeding here. I expect Racine County to go Republican across the board as it is one of few places were Foxconn is popular.
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,046
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2018, 10:38:51 AM »

Hmm. I wonder what a double digit Baldwin win looks like. I guess the Supreme Court race? So basically her 2012 map plus Brown, Racine and a few odd northern ones?
Win most of the counties, except WOW, the conservative area between Madison and Milwaukee, and a couple weird northern counties.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,179
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2018, 10:54:59 AM »

®Top Senate Race of 2018®, everyone Roll Eyes
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,046
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2018, 02:02:30 PM »

®Top Senate Race of 2018®, everyone Roll Eyes
#BaldwinUnder50
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,943
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2018, 06:05:41 PM »

Emerson thinks that Vukmir has the edge in the primary, as she leads 40-32 among people most likely to vote.

That's not surprising. The Milwaukee metro area tends to dominate in Republican primaries, and that's Vukmir's base. Which is great news for Baldwin and Evers.
Logged
#PACK THE COURTS
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,730


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2018, 06:37:18 PM »

Emerson thinks that Vukmir has the edge in the primary, as she leads 40-32 among people most likely to vote.

That's not surprising. The Milwaukee metro area tends to dominate in Republican primaries, and that's Vukmir's base. Which is great news for Baldwin and Evers.

Also great news for Randy Bryce (WI-01), Dan Kohl (WI-06), Margaret Engebretson (WI-07), and Beau Liegeois (WI-08).
Logged
#PACK THE COURTS
Solid4096
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,730


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.88

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2018, 06:40:17 PM »

Interesting note: Both Randy Bryce and Margaret Engebretson are semi-active users on Daily Kos.
Logged
🎄Thunder98🎄
Thunder98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,673
United States


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2018, 06:46:26 PM »

Hmm. I wonder what a double digit Baldwin win looks like. I guess the Supreme Court race? So basically her 2012 map plus Brown, Racine and a few odd northern ones?

Take her race in 2012 add some healthy wins in Brown and Outagamie counties, coming close in St. Criox County, stronger wins in the Southwest and Dane County, and improvement in the WOW counties as there has been some permenant Republican bleeding here. I expect Racine County to go Republican across the board as it is one of few places were Foxconn is popular.


How about Marathon County?
Logged
We Made PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,204
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 31, 2018, 01:14:32 PM »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Logged
Zaybay
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,963
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 31, 2018, 02:00:23 PM »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.
Logged
Calthrina950
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,109
United States


P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 31, 2018, 02:38:05 PM »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.

What are you talking about? There's a large block of Democratic-leaning polls in the database already.
Logged
We Made PA Blue Again!
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,204
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 31, 2018, 02:40:47 PM »
« Edited: July 31, 2018, 09:05:07 PM by PittsburghSteel »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.

What are you talking about? There's a large block of Democratic-leaning polls in the database already.

Every time a poll showing good results for Rs is released, itís almost immediately added. Itís been a day since this poll was released and itís still not in the database. There are Marist polls for Florida, Tennessee, and Arizona that were released last month and they still havenít been added IIRC.
Logged
Calthrina950
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,109
United States


P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 31, 2018, 08:58:07 PM »

Hey, are we going to add this poll into the database or are we going to pretend it doesnít exist?
Its good for Ds, so no.

What are you talking about? There's a large block of Democratic-leaning polls in the database already.

Every time a poll showing good results for Rs is released, itís almost immediately added. Itís been a day since this poll was released and itís still not in the database. There are Marist polls for Florida, Tennessee, and Florida that were released last month and they still havenít been added IIRC.

I see. The most recent polls in the database are those that are Republican-leaning, and it is a legitimate complaint.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,943
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 15, 2018, 12:18:09 AM »

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Emerson College on 2018-07-28

Summary: D: 50%, R: 36%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.066 seconds with 12 queries.