TN-Spry Strategies: Lee +7 over Harwell, Black and Boyd Fading

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Lee 29
Harwell 22
Black 19
Boyd 15

Unfortunately, they didn't give anything more than the data and it came in a tweet from a Nashville news anchor.
https://twitter.com/bobmuellerwkrn/status/1022642937245577219

I do know anecdotally of people changing to Lee in the last week or so, but the Harwell momentum slightly surprises me.  I was driving all around Williamson County, along with GOP-leaning sections of Davidson County and a bit of Hickman and Maury Counties today, and I would say that 60% of the yard signs I saw for the gubernatorial race were for Lee.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm in the Chattanooga media market and so I get to see all the TN political commercials (hilariously, I hardly ever see a GA political ad).

Lee's are by far the most reasonable, even-toned and not resembling a pissing match of who can shout "I stand with Trump", "I stood up to Obama", "my opponent supports [liberal policy]" or "sanctuary cities/illegals" the loudest. Even the other candidates' ads that are reasonable don't really get away from it (like Harwell saying she supports medical marijuana just like Trump). I imagine people are absolutely sick of the attack ads - you see literally no other commercials from 5-8 PM on the main stations and it's been that way for like two months now.

Because the field is so fractured and due to the historic nature of TN GOP voters not being extremists, I could see Lee coming in first with like 25-30% if he's truly resonating. Black is just so off-putting, negative and defensive in her ads, Boyd is getting beaten black and blue, and Harwell is a woman (and TN voters don't like electing women).

[100% pro-life no matter what]

I'm in the Chattanooga media market and so I get to see all the TN political commercials (hilariously, I hardly ever see a GA political ad).

Lee's are by far the most reasonable, even-toned and not resembling a pissing match of who can shout "I stand with Trump", "I stood up to Obama", "my opponent supports [liberal policy]" or "sanctuary cities/illegals" the loudest. Even the other candidates' ads that are reasonable don't really get away from it (like Harwell saying she supports medical marijuana just like Trump). I imagine people are absolutely sick of the attack ads - you see literally no other commercials from 5-8 PM on the main stations and it's been that way for like two months now.

Because the field is so fractured and due to the historic nature of TN GOP voters not being extremists, I could see Lee coming in first with like 25-30% if he's truly resonating. Black is just so off-putting, negative and defensive in her ads, Boyd is getting beaten black and blue, and Harwell is a woman (and TN voters don't like electing women).

Lee's base won't really be the moderates (they will probably prefer Boyd and Harwell), but the rich, but still evangelical, types that are numerous throughout suburban Tennessee.  If he is going to win the primary, he is going to have to clean up in the Nashville and Memphis suburbs (Knoxville's will go to Boyd since he's from there).

It's probably worth saying where all four are from to understand their bases:

Boyd- Knoxville (East Tennessee)
Harwell- Nashville (Middle Tennessee)
Lee- Franklin (Middle Tennessee, S suburbs of Nashville)
Black- Gallatin (Middle Tennessee, NE suburbs of Nashville)

[IceSpear]

Could a last minute Trump endorsement save Black?

[136or142]

Republicans in Tennessee have a history of somewhat moderate governors.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Could a last minute Trump endorsement save Black?

Pence endorsed her on Friday.  However, early voting ended on Saturday and typically accounts for at least half of the vote in Tennessee.  If this poll is anywhere near accurate, Diane would have to dominate the election day vote to have a chance, not just merely win it.

[KingSweden]

Any other interesting primaries on Thursday besides Governor?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With the feel of change, Karl Dean can definitely win this😁

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Any other interesting primaries on Thursday besides Governor?

In East Tennessee, there is a close primary for TN-2, where Duncan is retiring.  I don't live in East Tennessee and don't know a whole lot about it though.  There are several Republicans running for TN-6, but my understanding is that it is safe for State Rep. Judd Matheny.  TN-7 is safe for State Sen. Mark Green.

And, I would be shocked if Fitzhugh upset Dean in the Democratic primary for governor.