NBC Marist Polls (MI, MN, WI): Whitmer +9, Waltz +9/Swanson +11, Evers +13

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

They think Walker is unbeatable; eventhough Cook PVI has WI as +2 Democrat

Cook PVI has WI as "EVEN"

I dont see how they got that number. If PVI is calculated via 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers, as they state, the PVI should be D+3.5, since Trump won by 1(rounding), and Obama won by 8(rounding).

But Obama won the PV by 4% and Clinton won the PV by 2% (rounding), so that’s an average of 3% and 3.5%-3% is pretty close to even (PVI is relative to the national popular vote). Not sure that the algorithm is that straightforward, though.

[ltomlinson31]

They think Walker is unbeatable; eventhough Cook PVI has WI as +2 Democrat

Cook PVI has WI as "EVEN"

I dont see how they got that number. If PVI is calculated via 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers, as they state, the PVI should be D+3.5, since Trump won by 1(rounding), and Obama won by 8(rounding).

Cook PVI is measured by the % of vote you get in a state/distict compared to the nation as a whole, not margins. Obama got 52% (1% higher than his popular vote), while Trump got 47% (also 1% higher than his popular vote).

[Zaybay]

They think Walker is unbeatable; eventhough Cook PVI has WI as +2 Democrat

Cook PVI has WI as "EVEN"

I dont see how they got that number. If PVI is calculated via 2012 and 2016 presidential numbers, as they state, the PVI should be D+3.5, since Trump won by 1(rounding), and Obama won by 8(rounding).

Cook PVI is measured by the % of vote you get in a state/distict compared to the nation as a whole, not margins. Obama got 52% (1% higher than his popular vote), while Trump got 47% (also 1% higher than his popular vote).

Ah, alright, that makes sense.

[MT Treasurer]

The WI numbers are obvious trash, and MI looks a bit too D-friendly as well. I’ll wait for Marquette here before I move WI to Lean D.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Molly Kelly has a better chance to beat Sununu than Tony Evers has a chance to beat Walker? Sununu numbers are positive 34

[KingSweden]

These look way too D-friendly (as do the Senate numbers, though not quite as bad)

[redjohn]

These look way too D-friendly (as do the Senate numbers, though not quite as bad)

Agreed. Evers will not win by 13, and nobody should assume that he will because that spells disaster. Nevertheless, all recent polls have shown that the idea that the midwest has completely slipped away from Democrats is ridiculous.

[Zaybay]

These look way too D-friendly (as do the Senate numbers, though not quite as bad)

I mean, even if they are D-friendly, which I will agree, they do appear to be so, a 13 point deficit is rather large. Im thinking Evers/the Dem wins by high single digits.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Good to know that every rational person agrees that this poll is falsely favourable for Evers.  Walker will prevail where others in the Midwestern GOP stable won't. 42/50 in the nadir of his career and in the middle of an anti-GOP mood in the country? Not bad. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cook PvI has D+2 in WI, Evers will win by 2-4

[redjohn]

Cook PvI has D+2 in WI, Evers will win by 2-4

I'd gladly take a 2-4 win. Still, knowing Wisconsin, 13-point fantasy leads will dramatically shrink when Republicans begin bombarding airwaves with anti-Evers propaganda. Watch this lead turn into a single-digit deficit. Race is a true tossup.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Cook PvI has D+2 in WI, Evers will win by 2-4

I'd gladly take a 2-4 win. Still, knowing Wisconsin, 13-point fantasy leads will dramatically shrink when Republicans begin bombarding airwaves with anti-Evers propaganda. Watch this lead turn into a single-digit deficit. Race is a true tossup.

100% yep. Everyone already knows Walker's dirt, so negative campaigns won't work on him. Evers is obscure and will fail once oppo research is done with him. 

[Zaybay]

Cook PvI has D+2 in WI, Evers will win by 2-4

I'd gladly take a 2-4 win. Still, knowing Wisconsin, 13-point fantasy leads will dramatically shrink when Republicans begin bombarding airwaves with anti-Evers propaganda. Watch this lead turn into a single-digit deficit. Race is a true tossup.

I dont know how that would occur, considering Walker is a moderately unpopular governor and the state of WI has been swinging away from Rs this entire midterm, and that Baldwin is on the ballot, who has been leading polling in the double digits.

But sure, some ads from the Walker team will make this a true tossup. this is tilt-D IMO.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Good to know that every rational person agrees that this poll is falsely favourable for Evers.  Walker will prevail where others in the Midwestern GOP stable won't. 42/50 in the nadir of his career and in the middle of an anti-GOP mood in the country? Not bad. 

Not bad for the environment (which I dispute) does not equal a win.  This stuff isn't graded on a curve.

[Zaybay]

Just something interesting I found out. If this election occurs with these numbers, basically a Dallet victory but for a government office, the senate would almost be a Dem supermajority. Of course, I dont think Walker will lose by this much, and I dont think the Dems will win all of those seats, but if we get something close to this, the Ds will be able to win back the WI senate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Is that counting all Senate seats or just the ones up for re-election?

[Doimper]

lmfao

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

lmfao

Smart move, tbh. Using a faulty poll to drive up donations and drive Dems to complacency. Marist's irresponsibility in providing a skewed result might actually help the Walker campaign.

[Zaybay]

Is that counting all Senate seats or just the ones up for re-election?

It was counting all senate seats.

If we get a Dallet performance, and voters who vote for the Dem vote the same way down ballot, the senate would be.....
19D/14R

the seats that would flip would be 17, 19, 23, and 31.

[Zaybay]

lmfao

This is pathetic

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

lmfao

This is pathetic

How so? He's taking a rare opportunity (a botched poll) to wake up the sleeping GOP tiger in Wisconsin. WOW may have sat out during 2016, but they won't for Walker, that's for dang sure. I can see Dem turnout being depressed from thinking they got this race wrapped up.

[libertpaulian]

lmfao

Smart move, tbh. Using a faulty poll to drive up donations and drive Dems to complacency. Marist's irresponsibility in providing a skewed result might actually help the Walker campaign.

Looks like we've found LimoLiberal's sock.

[Doimper]

lmfao

Smart move, tbh. Using a faulty poll to drive up donations and drive Dems to complacency. Marist's irresponsibility in providing a skewed result might actually help the Walker campaign.

lmfao

[Zaybay]

lmfao

Smart move, tbh. Using a faulty poll to drive up donations and drive Dems to complacency. Marist's irresponsibility in providing a skewed result might actually help the Walker campaign.

Looks like we've found LimoLiberal's sock.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the other polls in OK are showing a blue wave is brewing; thus, WI, is the tipping point race😁