I decided to calculate the congressional apportionment based on 2020 population estimates, both with and without undocumented immigrants:
With undocumented immigrants:
Alabama -1
Arizona +1
California 0
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Montana 0
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1
Texas +3
West Virginia -1
Solid Red States (AL, TX, WV): +1
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +2
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI): -2
Obama 2012 states: -3
Clinton 2016 states: -2
Freiwal: -4
Without undocumented immigrants:
Alabama 0 (+1)
Arizona 0 (-1)
California -1 (-1)
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Montana +1 (+1)
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1
Texas +2 (-1)
West Virginia 0 (+1)
Solid Red States (TX, MT): +3
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +1
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI, CA): -3
Obama 2012 states: -4
Clinton 2016 states: -3
Freiwal: -5
#Analysis:
If the Trump administration gets its way in suppressing the count of undocumented immigrants, the net effect would be to bank 2 extra EVs for Republicans and take 1 EV away from Democrats, putting 1 more into the tossup category. The easiest electoral path for Democrats (of the current decade) would lose a single EV. This doesn't change electoral math that much, but a map like the one below would be a Dem win with undocumented immigrants counted, and a 269-269 tie without:
Nevada/Iowa AND New Hampshire become critical here.
If Arizona moves left of Wisconsin (and it should), that would provide more paths to victory, but if Arizona fails to pick up a seat due to an undercount, the Dems are hurt even more. A map such as this:
Would also go from 270 for the Democrats to a 269-269 tie.
Sources:
http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/unauthorized-immigrants/
https://demographics.coopercenter.org/national-population-projections
https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/tools/apportionment/
This is some great calculations, but there are two things I want to bring attention to.
1. Colorado is a lean D state, Im sorry, that really bothered me.
2. The locations of these seats are important. While TX is gaining 3, this will likely be due to metro growth and D growth, not R growth.
If undocumented are counted, the districts will likely benefit Dems overall, as the one in NY will be a R seat in Upstate, the IL one as well. RI would be the only real Dem seat that would be lost.
If undocumented are not counted, then its still an overall D gain in the house, but its been subsided. States like TX will have an easier time gerrymandering 2 seats, rather than 3, allowing the GOP to get some use out of this census.
Overall, as I said before, excellent analysis!
