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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  2020 census: with and without undocumented immigrants
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Author Topic: 2020 census: with and without undocumented immigrants  (Read 1583 times)
Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« on: July 26, 2018, 09:41:08 am »

I decided to calculate the congressional apportionment based on 2020 population estimates, both with and without undocumented immigrants:

With undocumented immigrants:
Alabama -1
Arizona +1
California 0
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1

Montana 0
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1

Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1

Texas +3
West Virginia -1

Solid Red States (AL, TX, WV): +1
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +2
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI): -2

Obama 2012 states: -3
Clinton 2016 states: -2
Freiwal: -4

Without undocumented immigrants:
Alabama 0 (+1)
Arizona 0 (-1)
California -1 (-1)

Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Montana +1 (+1)
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1
Texas +2 (-1)
West Virginia 0 (+1)


Solid Red States (TX, MT): +3
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +1
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI, CA): -3

Obama 2012 states: -4
Clinton 2016 states: -3
Freiwal: -5

#Analysis:
If the Trump administration gets its way in suppressing the count of undocumented immigrants, the net effect would be to bank 2 extra EVs for Republicans and take 1 EV away from Democrats, putting 1 more into the tossup category. The easiest electoral path for Democrats (of the current decade) would lose a single EV. This doesn't change electoral math that much, but a map like the one below would be a Dem win with undocumented immigrants counted, and a 269-269 tie without:



Nevada/Iowa AND New Hampshire become critical here.

If Arizona moves left of Wisconsin (and it should), that would provide more paths to victory, but if Arizona fails to pick up a seat due to an undercount, the Dems are hurt even more.  A map such as this:



Would also go from 270 for the Democrats to a 269-269 tie.

Sources:

http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/unauthorized-immigrants/
https://demographics.coopercenter.org/national-population-projections
https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/tools/apportionment/
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Del Tachi
Republican95
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« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2018, 10:27:28 am »

Isn't Georgia on track to gain?
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2018, 10:32:55 am »


Not according to the 2020 population estimates cited above.

Georgia's projected population is 10,716,000 and it would need to get above 11 million to gain another seat.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2018, 05:13:42 pm »

I decided to calculate the congressional apportionment based on 2020 population estimates, both with and without undocumented immigrants:

With undocumented immigrants:
Alabama -1
Arizona +1
California 0
Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1

Montana 0
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1

Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1

Texas +3
West Virginia -1

Solid Red States (AL, TX, WV): +1
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +2
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI): -2

Obama 2012 states: -3
Clinton 2016 states: -2
Freiwal: -4

Without undocumented immigrants:
Alabama 0 (+1)
Arizona 0 (-1)
California -1 (-1)

Colorado +1
Florida +1
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Montana +1 (+1)
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1
Texas +2 (-1)
West Virginia 0 (+1)


Solid Red States (TX, MT): +3
Swing States (CO, FL, MI, NC, PA, AZ): +1
Lean Blue States (MN): -1
Solid Blue States (IL, NY, OR, RI, CA): -3

Obama 2012 states: -4
Clinton 2016 states: -3
Freiwal: -5

#Analysis:
If the Trump administration gets its way in suppressing the count of undocumented immigrants, the net effect would be to bank 2 extra EVs for Republicans and take 1 EV away from Democrats, putting 1 more into the tossup category. The easiest electoral path for Democrats (of the current decade) would lose a single EV. This doesn't change electoral math that much, but a map like the one below would be a Dem win with undocumented immigrants counted, and a 269-269 tie without:



Nevada/Iowa AND New Hampshire become critical here.

If Arizona moves left of Wisconsin (and it should), that would provide more paths to victory, but if Arizona fails to pick up a seat due to an undercount, the Dems are hurt even more.  A map such as this:



Would also go from 270 for the Democrats to a 269-269 tie.

Sources:

http://www.pewhispanic.org/interactives/unauthorized-immigrants/
https://demographics.coopercenter.org/national-population-projections
https://www.psc.isr.umich.edu/dis/census/tools/apportionment/

This is some great calculations, but there are two things I want to bring attention to.

1. Colorado is a lean D state, Im sorry, that really bothered me.

2. The locations of these seats are important. While TX is gaining 3, this will likely be due to metro growth and D growth, not R growth.

If undocumented are counted, the districts will likely benefit Dems overall, as the one in NY will be a R seat in Upstate, the IL one as well. RI would be the only real Dem seat that would be lost.

If undocumented are not counted, then its still an overall D gain in the house, but its been subsided. States like TX will have an easier time gerrymandering 2 seats, rather than 3, allowing the GOP to get some use out of this census.

Overall, as I said before, excellent analysis!

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: July 29, 2018, 05:45:15 pm »

This would only escalate.  If this is done in 2020, the next Dem-controlled government will just invoke Section 2 of the 14th Amendment and strip CDs from the (overwhelmingly red) states that have recently passed more restrictive voting laws.
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Medal506
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2018, 01:46:40 pm »

Illegal aliens and non citizens shouldn't even be voting.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2018, 08:54:57 am »

Illegal aliens and non citizens shouldn't even be voting.

They don't.   They're counted in the Census.
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2018, 09:27:01 am »

Illegal aliens and non citizens shouldn't even be voting.

They don't.   They're counted in the Census.

This. The US Constitution is fairly clear on this point. Inhabitants are counted, not just citizens.
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UBI man good
Liam
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2018, 01:23:28 pm »

I donít see Calafornia losing any EVís.
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2018, 08:21:30 am »


If California lost all of its undocumented immigrants in the census count, they almost certainly would.

CA had a healthy population growth in the 2010s, but they've slowed compared to other states in the Sunbelt and West.
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Medal506
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2018, 01:48:49 am »

Illegal aliens and non citizens shouldn't even be voting.

They don't.   They're counted in the Census.

They should be deported
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
Beef
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 7,561
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2018, 08:16:57 am »

Illegal aliens and non citizens shouldn't even be voting.

They don't.   They're counted in the Census.

They should be deported

Whether or not that's the case, they're here, so they get counted.
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