With both candidates now decided, rate GA-Gov

[libertpaulian]

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

This is based on what exactly?

Kemp managed to go from a fringe candidate whose coalition were the toothless hillbillies of the state to Georgia GOP Superstar thanks to Drumpf's endorsement.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

This is based on what exactly?

Kemp managed to go from a fringe candidate whose coalition were the toothless hillbillies of the state to Georgia GOP Superstar thanks to Drumpf's endorsement.

That was a Republican run off in the middle of the summer. We will see in November. Trump underperformed here and if Hillary can get to 46 percent with low black turnout, no investment or field, and being a polarizing figure, Abrams has a shot. Likely R and especially Likely R because of some imaginary pull Trump has is funny.

[IceSpear]

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

This is based on what exactly?

Kemp managed to go from a fringe candidate whose coalition were the toothless hillbillies of the state to Georgia GOP Superstar thanks to Drumpf's endorsement.

Kemp was going to win regardless. He still won the early vote by double digits. Trump just made it an even bigger landslide.

[Hammy]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

[Xeuma]

Lean R to Likely R. Georgia is still a rural southern state, and while Abrams will probably come closer to victory than any recent Democrat, I don't see her winning. Her best chance is some scandal involving Kemp that massively decreases republican turnout.

[Del Tachi]

Lean R.  Kemp is a better candidate than people are giving him credit (and he is definitely a stronger GOP nominee than Cagle) and Georgia is still a red state. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Lean R to Likely R. Georgia is still a rural southern state, and while Abrams will probably come closer to victory than any recent Democrat, I don't see her winning. Her best chance is some scandal involving Kemp that massively decreases republican turnout.

[Hammy]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

The democratic coalition is higher turnout that it historically and this is a wave year. The idea that she would necessarily do much worse in a runoff is unsupported.

[IceSpear]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

The democratic coalition is higher turnout that it historically and this is a wave year. The idea that she would necessarily do much worse in a runoff is unsupported.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=6

[Zaybay]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

The democratic coalition is higher turnout that it historically and this is a wave year. The idea that she would necessarily do much worse in a runoff is unsupported.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=6

why does everyone always bring up 2008? That was 10 years ago, and GA has changed in those 10 years. No one is looking at MO and saying "MO was close in 2008, we should be able to win it in 2020".

[IceSpear]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

The democratic coalition is higher turnout that it historically and this is a wave year. The idea that she would necessarily do much worse in a runoff is unsupported.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=6

why does everyone always bring up 2008? That was 10 years ago, and GA has changed in those 10 years. No one is looking at MO and saying "MO was close in 2008, we should be able to win it in 2020".

Because the same reasoning for why a 2018 runoff would be competitive applies to 2008. Wave year, Democrats more enthusiastic, etc. etc.

There's also the fact that Democrats have vastly underperformed in Georgia special elections.

[Zaybay]

Lean R to Likely R.

Trump has more pull in GA than most people give him credit for.

Trump's numbers are worse in Georgia than any surrounding state.

Abrams is leading in polling and Kemp is a nutcase. Lean D.

Is she pulling in >50%? If not it's meaningless.

That's a literally meaningless benchmark in polling. Undecideds should not be expected to all go for Kemp.

It's not a matter of undecideds--Georgia is a 50%+1 rule state and Dems don't win runoffs in Georgia--or Abrams (or any Democrat) to win they'll have to avoid one.

The democratic coalition is higher turnout that it historically and this is a wave year. The idea that she would necessarily do much worse in a runoff is unsupported.

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=13&year=2008&f=0&off=3&elect=6

why does everyone always bring up 2008? That was 10 years ago, and GA has changed in those 10 years. No one is looking at MO and saying "MO was close in 2008, we should be able to win it in 2020".

Because the same reasoning for why a 2018 runoff would be competitive applies to 2008. Wave year, Democrats more enthusiastic, etc. etc.

There's also the fact that Democrats have vastly underperformed in Georgia special elections.

But
1. The Democratic floor has grown
2. The D electorate has become more white
3. The voters who are more likely to vote in midterms, college educated people, are now more D than R

These are incredibly important changes that have occurred in GA. While many special elections that were held on off-days were weak for Democrats, Runoffs have been stronger, overall, for Democrats.

There is a large difference between an election that no one knows is occurring, and a runoff that will decide the governorship. One brings out enthusiastic voters, or regular voters, the other is a rather unknown quantity.

[RogueBeaver]

Likely R.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Obama had just won the presidency convincingly and had 60 Seats in the Senate and a huge majority in the House. What incentive was there for the Democratic base to turn out for a centrist Democrat who was probably running to the right courting rural whites?

Georgia has only gotten more diverse. This race will be a Governor's race and has nothing to do with balance of power in Washington. It's one or the other and a wide gap between the candidates on every issue plus a historic candidacy on Stacey Abrams' part. She's reaching out to voters that Jim Martin probably discounted. 2008 is not relevant to what will happen in a potential run-off in December.

[libertpaulian]

Obama had just won the presidency convincingly and had 60 Seats in the Senate and a huge majority in the House. What incentive was there for the Democratic base to turn out for a centrist Democrat who was probably running to the right courting rural whites?

Georgia has only gotten more diverse. This race will be a Governor's race and has nothing to do with balance of power in Washington. It's one or the other and a wide gap between the candidates on every issue plus a historic candidacy on Stacey Abrams' part. She's reaching out to voters that Jim Martin probably discounted. 2008 is not relevant to what will happen in a potential run-off in December.

In some ways, Stacey Abrams 2018 feels like the statewide version of Barack Obama 2008.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Obama had just won the presidency convincingly and had 60 Seats in the Senate and a huge majority in the House. What incentive was there for the Democratic base to turn out for a centrist Democrat who was probably running to the right courting rural whites?

Georgia has only gotten more diverse. This race will be a Governor's race and has nothing to do with balance of power in Washington. It's one or the other and a wide gap between the candidates on every issue plus a historic candidacy on Stacey Abrams' part. She's reaching out to voters that Jim Martin probably discounted. 2008 is not relevant to what will happen in a potential run-off in December.

In some ways, Stacey Abrams 2018 feels like the statewide version of Barack Obama 2008.

It does on the ground, though I do live in a heavily Democratic area already but I’m hoping we can get 75% of Presidential turnout while the GOP areas get like 50-60%

[here2view]

Tossup. I have a friend that lives in Georgia who voted for Trump, and he is voting for Abrams.

I think it's going to be a lot closer than people expect.

[Politician]

"Likely R obviously" Inside Elections

Definitely a tossup, and I think Abrams is actually slightly favored.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Tossup. I have a friend that lives in Georgia who voted for Trump, and he is voting for Abrams.

I think it's going to be a lot closer than people expect.

Were they a hard Trump supporter or did they just dislike Hillary?

[Buzz]

Lean R

Kemp has more support than people here want to believe. 

[Alabama_Indy10]

Lean R. 50+1 will be difficult for Abrams.

[Inmate Trump]

Lean R. 50+1 will be difficult for Abrams.

50+1 will also be difficult for Kemp.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Lean R. 50+1 will be difficult for Abrams.

50+1 will also be difficult for Kemp.

The OP's implication is that if it goes to a runoff, which is quite likely, Kemp would be favored since Georgia runoffs have historically gone to the Republicans.  But in this year of motivated Democrat turnout and a strong GOTV operation by Abrams, I don't think that can be taken for granted.  I'm calling this a Tossup until we see some actual polling.