With both candidates now decided, rate GA-Gov

[Peanut]

I'm honestly not sure how I'd rate this race. I expect to be surprised by it regardless of the result.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I said tilt R.

[IceSpear]

Lean R

[Inmate Trump]

Toss-up.

Kemp is ridiculous and obnoxious.  He literally aired ads about his truck.

Abrams is talking about actual issues.

Considering that, it's sad to rate it anything less than Safe D but I'd say toss-up.  I'm in a north GA county (heavily Republican--80+% for Trump) and most R's here refer to Kemp laughingly and mockingly.  Don't get me wrong, I fully expect them to vote for him, but I just don't know that he'll inspire a lot of people to get out the vote.  Meanwhile, Abrams is a cultural icon...not a lot of love from the other side...but you can't argue that she isn't an inspiring figure and that she has at least the potential to really get out the vote on her behalf--a quality Kemp lacks, IMO.

[Podgy the Bear]

It's tilt R.  Don't think she can get past 50%+1 in November.  But she'll get out the vote, and I think we'll get some statewide Democrats elected this year.

[Ohioguy29]

Lean R (subject to change, of course.) Abrams is running an impressive campaign. I'll continue to watch this one with great interest.

[Inmate Trump]

It's tilt R.  Don't think she can get past 50%+1 in November.  But she'll get out the vote, and I think we'll get some statewide Democrats elected this year.

In the general, does 50+1 still have to happen?  For some reason, I was under the impression it was just on primaries.  If it's still required for the general, then if she doesn't get 50+1 I highly doubt that Kemp will either--and we'd have a decent shot at a runoff, provided our side gets out and their side does not.  Cagle "won" the primary and lost bigly the runoff, for example.

In any event, runoff's are the dumbest thing ever.

[IceSpear]

Kemp is ridiculous and obnoxious.  He literally aired ads about his truck.

Running vapid ads about your truck never works.

https://youtu.be/nnZw6sm_yAY

As far as being "ridiculous and obnoxious" vs "talking about the issues", I can think of a very recent high profile election where that was the case, and it didn't turn out very well for us, in Georgia or otherwise.

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's tilt R.  Don't think she can get past 50%+1 in November.  But she'll get out the vote, and I think we'll get some statewide Democrats elected this year.

In the general, does 50+1 still have to happen?  For some reason, I was under the impression it was just on primaries.  If it's still required for the general, then if she doesn't get 50+1 I highly doubt that Kemp will either--and we'd have a decent shot at a runoff, provided our side gets out and their side does not.  Cagle "won" the primary and lost bigly the runoff, for example.

In any event, runoff's are the dumbest thing ever.

Yes, 50% + 1 has to happen in the GE.  I'm pessimistic about Dem chances in a runoff, as Dems haven't won one in many years, even when they've been energized (see 2008 GA-SEN, where the initial margin was pretty close, but Rs won by 15 in the runoff).

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R. Abrams could win but it's going to take some massive organization and luck.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Stacy Abrams can win

[Maxwell]

Tilt R. I despise Brian Kemp's hickface campaign, but it worked like a charm in the GOP primary, so he should get the base voters. I heard Abrams talk on some program and thought she was great but Georgia's still a Republican state and a southern state.

Definitely winnable.

[libertpaulian]

Kemp is ridiculous and obnoxious.  He literally aired ads about his truck.

Running vapid ads about your truck never works.

https://youtu.be/nnZw6sm_yAY

As far as being "ridiculous and obnoxious" vs "talking about the issues", I can think of a very recent high profile election where that was the case, and it didn't turn out very well for us, in Georgia or otherwise.

Notice how Scott Brown talked about ISSUES in that ad about his truck.  Brian Kemp was just talking about what a gun toting rural rube he is.

YUGE difference.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Kemp is ridiculous and obnoxious.  He literally aired ads about his truck.

Running vapid ads about your truck never works.

https://youtu.be/nnZw6sm_yAY

As far as being "ridiculous and obnoxious" vs "talking about the issues", I can think of a very recent high profile election where that was the case, and it didn't turn out very well for us, in Georgia or otherwise.

Notice how Scott Brown talked about ISSUES in that ad about his truck.  Brian Kemp was just talking about what a gun toting rural rube he is.

YUGE difference.

We are living in different times and talking about different states too. Kemp talking about his truck, guns, and barbecue (?) or whatever may very well be enough for modern Republicans to make him their Governor.

[Hammy]

Lean R because of the runoff rule, otherwise it'd be tossup to Tilt D as I think Abrams has at least an even shot of having a plurality on election night.

[I’m not Stu]

Tilt R

[IceSpear]

Kemp is ridiculous and obnoxious.  He literally aired ads about his truck.

Running vapid ads about your truck never works.

https://youtu.be/nnZw6sm_yAY

As far as being "ridiculous and obnoxious" vs "talking about the issues", I can think of a very recent high profile election where that was the case, and it didn't turn out very well for us, in Georgia or otherwise.

Notice how Scott Brown talked about ISSUES in that ad about his truck.  Brian Kemp was just talking about what a gun toting rural rube he is.

YUGE difference.

If anything, Kemp's ad was more focused on policy. He'll round up illegals in his truck and no libs are taking his guns. Sounds pretty concrete to me, as opposed to vague platitudes like "concerned about our country's direction" and "the government keeps getting bigger."

[Adam Griffin]

Lean R (would've been Tilt R/tossup with Cagle); Safe R if it goes to a runoff

[wesmoorenerd]

Lean R (would've been Tilt R/tossup with Cagle); Safe R if it goes to a runoff

You really think Abrams has zero chance in a runoff?

[ON Progressive]

Lean R (would've been Tilt R/tossup with Cagle); Safe R if it goes to a runoff

You really think Abrams has zero chance in a runoff?

I don't think it's zero, but I get why one would think that she would be a massive underdog. Look at 2008 GA-Sen. Jim Martin got 46.8% in round 1 and then lost by nearly 15 points because black turnout cratered hard.

Of course, this was back when the Atlanta suburbs were pretty decently Republican rather than purple, but rural whites were more Democratic in 2008 than now.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Toss-Up. I am extremely biased due to my proximity to the campaign though. I understand why others would say Tilt or Lean R. She definitely has a lot of field organizing and outreach to do.

[Zaybay]

Tossup, its definitely possible for Abrams to get past 50% in the first round, especially since there is no green candidate on the board. If she cant, this goes to lean/likely R, but closer to lean.

[IceSpear]

He literally aired ads about his truck.

Abrams is talking about actual issues.

So Lean R, then?

LOL.

Jon Tester's haircut is the biggest issue in Montana.

[Skye]

Lean R, but accidentally voted tilt.

[KingSweden]

Lean R of course