Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

Trump is a weak president

The President was never expected to wield dictatorial or despotic powers. Maybe in a national calamity the President gets all the powers that he needs (much like the British Prime Minister, a different concept) but only then.

Obama knew the limitations and did not challenge them. Trump thinks that because he is the definitive optimum as a person that he deserves powers that only a Lincoln of FDR could get.

The House controls the budget. That is where the real power lies.   

[pbrower2a]

Emerson, South Carolina, Trump up 50-44 approval, but he apparently gets 56% of the vote. Although I dislike "no undecided" polls at this stage, the approval poll looks legit here -- no freakish crosstabs. I did not show Emerson's Iowa poll which has weird crosstabe, but I am showing this one.  

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/south-carolina-2020-poll-biden-leads-primary-field-by-wide-margin-president-trump-popular-with-base

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 96
40-43% 34
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

WTF is happening? Why is Trump gaining?

Teflon Don. Nothing sticks to him lol.

[GeorgiaModerate]

WTF is happening? Why is Trump gaining?

Teflon Don. Nothing sticks to him lol.

Eh, to a point.  He's recovered a lot from his big decline during the shutdown, but I think most people expected that to happen.  However, he hasn't recovered quite to pre-shutdown levels.  That is, it looks like the shutdown may have cost him considerable support short-term, and a small amount long-term.  Of course there could be other factors affecting current support, such as the failed summit with Kim.  If Trump bounces back but loses a little each time this kind of thing happens, that's not a good trend for him.

[Brittain33]

I wonder if he's bouncing back a bit because Democrats have some power now and some small slice of Republicans who dislike him now decide he's better than Sanders, Warren, or AOC who are now in the news.

[Person Man]

I wonder if he's bouncing back a bit because Democrats have some power now and some small slice of Republicans who dislike him now decide he's better than Sanders, Warren, or AOC who are now in the news.

It would make sense if rumors of major problems and trouble ahead simply remain either rumors or tied up in court. The only other major story is the various allegations of corruption and incompetence being thrown by the media at both Trump and now at the Resistance. This was such the case in the spring of 2011 when both Obama and the TEA Party were seem as equally culpable actors in the world.

The main difference is that Trump has gone from controversial to somewhat to only slightly unpopular while Obama has gone from very popular to controversial to slightly unpopular back to being controversial. The backdrop being the unemployment rate starting and staying low from Obama to Trump and the unemployment rate starting, going higher and gradually decreasing from Bush to Obama.  

At this rate, Trump will probably win exactly 50% of the popular vote but lose Michigan but win Minnesota, New Hampshire, and MAYBE Nevada. This is if there's no big short in the next 20 months.  
I think Gardner loses but also that Jones and Sheheen loses....I think the Republicans gain like 12 seats in the house. This is because there's always someone out there willing to give loans to people and someone no one out there calling them in. Maybe they finally pulled off how to make sustainable high yield investments.

If not, I can easily see an Democrat winning everything that was close last time, retaking the Senate and winning at least few more seats in the House. Especially if I am out on my ass for a prolonged period of time. Not to toot my own horn...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another poll showing a post-shutdown bounceback for Trump:

IBD/TIPP, Feb. 21-March 2, 907 adults (3-week change)

Approve 41 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-4)

[President Johnson]

Sometimes it looks like Bill Clinton in 1994/95.

What's keeping him so high is the economy and the fact that his die-hard supporters don't care for all the stuff. He could nuke Denmark and get away with it.

[Thatkat04]

I think alot of his approval rating fluctuations can be attributed to people tuning in and out between the controversies.

My opinion, the 2018 exit polls had Trump at around -10. The current crop of approval polls have him around that. So, its safe to assume Trump is at -10.

Also, just to point out, the NBC/WSJ poll had Trump at 46/52 in November of 2018. The most recent February poll that seems to have sparked this discussion really just reverted back to what it was before the midterm. The midterm, I might add, republicans lost by almost 9 points.

I might also add, that the NBC/WSJ poll had Trump at 47/49 in October. I'm sure that poll caused alot of hand wringing when it was posted here(almost even right before the midterms).

Edit: I'm not saying Trump is doomed, but this recovery isnt unexpected. No point in reading too much into it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

St. Leo U., Feb. 16-25, 1000 adults nationally and 500 Florida residents (change from Oct.)

National:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+8)

Florida:

Approve 45 (-3) strongly 27
Disapprove 53 (can't find previous disapproval) strongly 44

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo U., Feb. 16-25, 1000 adults nationally and 500 Florida residents (change from Oct.)

National:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+8)

Florida:

Approve 45 (-3) strongly 27
Disapprove 53 (can't find previous disapproval) strongly 44

It looks as if he won't win his fourth-barest win, either, in 2020 with that disapproval number.  Florida looks about R+5 here with respect to the rest of the US. 

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 96
40-43% 34
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!

[Progressive Pessimist]

St. Leo U., Feb. 16-25, 1000 adults nationally and 500 Florida residents (change from Oct.)

National:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+8)

Florida:

Approve 45 (-3) strongly 27
Disapprove 53 (can't find previous disapproval) strongly 44

It looks as if he won't win his fourth-barest win, either, in 2020 with that disapproval number.  Florida looks about R+5 here with respect to the rest of the US. 

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 96
40-43% 34
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!

I wish, but Florida excels at one thing and that is disappointing. I'm not getting my hopes up again.

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo U., Feb. 16-25, 1000 adults nationally and 500 Florida residents (change from Oct.)

National:

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+8)

Florida:

Approve 45 (-3) strongly 27
Disapprove 53 (can't find previous disapproval) strongly 44

It looks as if he won't win his fourth-barest win, either, in 2020 with that disapproval number.  Florida looks about R+5 here with respect to the rest of the US. 

With cumulative electoral vote totals in each category.

55% and higher 8
50-54% 9
49% or less and positive 38
tie (white)
44-49% and negative 96
40-43% 34
under 40%  122

An asterisk will be applied to any state in which the President's approval rating is above 43% for which the disapproval rating is 50% or higher.

No segregation of districts in Maine and Nebraska -- yet.

29 more states, and 231 electoral votes to go!

I wish, but Florida excels at one thing and that is disappointing. I'm not getting my hopes up again.

Trump, like Romney in 2012, can lose the electoral college while losing Florida. St. Leo shows Florida 5% more aligned with Trump than America as a whole -- but still a likely loss. The 53% disapproval sets a ceiling of 47% for the Trumpenstein monster in Florida.

Florida will not decide the Presidency in 2020.  I see Wisconsin as the tipping-point state in 2020, and there nothing seems to have gone well for Trump since the 2016 election. The incumbent Republican was defeated in a bid for a third term. The incumbent Democratic Senator won by a landslide. The majority of the House vote went to Democrats statewide even if gerrymandering aids the Republicans in maintaining their majority in the House delegation. Approval ratings and especially disapproval ratings have been dismal in Wisconsin for the President.

Not counting ME-02, Trump has at least four things going against him: his approval rating is 45% or less, his disapproval rating is 51% or higher, his Party lost a Senate race if there was one, and his Party lost the majority of the votes for House seats in states involving 294 electoral votes. I'm not going to make much of Republicans winning gubernatorial races in Arizona or Iowa because gubernatorial races often involve statewide issues such as the state budget that have no bearing on federal elections. (Do you make anything about Charlie Baker winning in Massachusetts or Phil Scott winning in Vermont? I don't!)

This is in a midterm election, and midterm elections usually are more R than the following Presidential election. The last time that such was not so was in 1982, probably because the young voters entering the electorate were more conservative than older voters.

I see only two ways in which Trump wins in 2020. One is that the Democrats find a left-wing challenge that can take away significant votes from their side of the political spectrum. The other is a rigged election which would perfectly fit the moral values of Donald Trump. 

   

[Sir Mohamed]

It sickens me to my stomach that Drumpf is still in the 40s after he had a really terrible week. It's definitely not enough for 2020 Dems just to point at his failures and the thousands of lies he's told all over the place.

[pbrower2a]

It sickens me to my stomach that Drumpf is still in the 40s after he had a really terrible week. It's definitely not enough for 2020 Dems just to point at his failures and the thousands of lies he's told all over the place.

An analogy might be the amputation of a gangrenous, painful limb that causes overall sickness. The pain is gone, but so is the limb and the sickness. In a short time one misses the limb.

Ineffective but evil is far less troublesome than evil but potentially successful. Obviously President Trump gets elected if he is successful from here on, but that is simply unlikely.

[Sir Mohamed]

It sickens me to my stomach that Drumpf is still in the 40s after he had a really terrible week. It's definitely not enough for 2020 Dems just to point at his failures and the thousands of lies he's told all over the place.

An analogy might be the amputation of a gangrenous, painful limb that causes overall sickness. The pain is gone, but so is the limb and the sickness. In a short time one misses the limb.

Ineffective but evil is far less troublesome than evil but potentially successful. Obviously President Trump gets elected if he is successful from here on, but that is simply unlikely.

Successful is a question of definition. He declares victory/success on anything he wants and blame Dems, the so called Deep State or the media if things go wrong. He never takes responsibility for anything. And his base buys the lies. Dems can lose in 2020 if they play the wrong cards. Is it likely? No, but absolutely possible.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Feb. 12-28, 1932 adults (prior poll Feb. 1-10)

Approve 43 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (+2)

R: 90/9
D: 6/92
I: 35/61

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

It sickens me to my stomach that Drumpf is still in the 40s after he had a really terrible week. It's definitely not enough for 2020 Dems just to point at his failures and the thousands of lies he's told all over the place.

Maybe a bad week, but not a terrible week.

Walking away from the talks with Kim is bad only if you think there was something significant to be gained that he ruined. That's certainly not the case.

Comey has significant credibility problems so his testimony can at best point towards credible evidence of Trump's failings.

Basically all the past week did was confirm the opinions people already had of Trump.

[Tender Branson]

TX (University of Texas/Texas Tribune):

49-45 approve

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, March 1-4, 1120 RV (change from late Jan.)

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

These two questions are interesting:

35. Do you think that President Trump committed any crimes before he was president, or
don't you think so?

Yes 64
No 24

(R: 33/48, D: 89/5, I: 65/23)

36. Do you think that President Trump has committed any crimes while he has been
president, or don't you think so?


Yes 45
No 43

(R: 12/79, D: 75/15, I: 46/38)

[pbrower2a]

TX (University of Texas/Texas Tribune):

49-45 approve

It does not change the map.

Gonzales Maryland Poll - March 2019

Gov. Larry Hogan (R) Job Approval:

78-16 approve

President Donald Trump (R) Job Approval:

38-60 disapprove

---

Among Republicans only, 86% approve of Trump though and 85% of Hogan.

https://marylandreporter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Gonzales-Maryland-Poll-March-2019.pdf

Likewise.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Quinnipiac, March 1-4, 1120 RV (change from late Jan.)

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

These two questions are interesting:

35. Do you think that President Trump committed any crimes before he was president, or
don't you think so?

Yes 64
No 24

(R: 33/48, D: 89/5, I: 65/23)

36. Do you think that President Trump has committed any crimes while he has been
president, or don't you think so?


Yes 45
No 43

(R: 12/79, D: 75/15, I: 46/38)

Wow! So a third of Republicans think Trump committed crimes yet still support him? That is so par for the course that it's depressing.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac, March 1-4, 1120 RV (change from late Jan.)

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (-2)

Strongly approve 28 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-4)

These two questions are interesting:

35. Do you think that President Trump committed any crimes before he was president, or
don't you think so?

Yes 64
No 24

(R: 33/48, D: 89/5, I: 65/23)

36. Do you think that President Trump has committed any crimes while he has been
president, or don't you think so?


Yes 45
No 43

(R: 12/79, D: 75/15, I: 46/38)

Wow! So a third of Republicans think Trump committed crimes yet still support him? That is so par for the course that it's depressing.

Authoritarian personality, Right side of the spectrum?

I assume that there are Republicans who believe in clean government and hold in contempt anyone who tries to imitate totalitarian regimes of any kind. But I am  reminded that many Germans loved Hitler and many Russians loved Stalin. If people were disappearing without obvious reason, then maybe such was voluntary or they had it coming.

We are right to expect a higher standard from people who wield great authority as elected officials, professionals, civil servants (including law enforcement), and military officers. People can redeem  themselves from early offenses, but it is best that such people accept limitations in life such as not having responsibility for custody over money or people. Criminal convictions are bars to many sorts of employment, including that of a military officer.


We are getting a harsh lesson in civics from Donald Trump: elect someone with risky or predatory behavior, and expect trouble. 

[pbrower2a]

Florida, Bendixen & Avanzini

It's a favorability poll, so I won't put it on the map. The one by St. Leo gives approval numbers fairly close to favorable numbers for Trump, so quite possibly the distinction is a quibble. 

Favorable -- somewhat 12  strong 31
Unfavorable -- somewhat 6 strong 46

Trump does well with voters over 65 (53-40), but badly with all groups under 65. He does less well with Republicans (76-21) than does a successful incumbent, and he does far worse than the Republican Governor elected in 2016. He has an execrable split with independent voters. He does well with people with no more than a high-school education, but badly with others. He just about breaks even with white Anglo voters and somewhat loses English speakers as a whole (which probably includes a huge percentage of the Cuban-American population, as it is far from new in Florida) -- but does badly among Spanish speakers. (I am guessing that Spanish speaks are largely non-Cuban). 

When total favorability is less than strong unfavorability, the pol in question obviously has big trouble. 

So what is the big news here?

Do you think that Donald Trump should be re-elected in 2020?

YES -- 40%
NO -- 53%

undecided -- 7%

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-505f-dc75-affd-dfffe1070000

He does not win Florida in 2020 with numbers like this. 

[pbrower2a]

51% Someone else
49% Trump

Beto O'Rourke: 43-45 unfavourable
Donald Trump: 49-45 approve

https://www.texastribune.org/2019/03/05/somebody-else-beat-donald-trump-in-texas-but-barely-uttt-poll

That's a narrow edge for 'Generic Democrat', but in a state that should straddle the 400th electoral vote for a winning Democrat as nominee for president (Texas has been in that range since the 1990s)  this is big trouble. Trouble with a capital T and that does not stand for Tennessee.