Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[GeorgiaModerate]

Selzer, Nov. 24-27, 1000 adults including 828 likely 2020 voters (change from Sep.)

Adults:

Approve 43 (+4)
Disapprove 45 (-5)

Vote to re-elect Trump?

Definitely vote to re-elect 32 (+2)
Consider someone else 18 (nc)
Definitely someone else 41 (-2)
Would not vote 5 (nc)
Not sure 4 (+1)

LV (no prior):

Approve 44
Disapprove 47

Vote to re-elect Trump?

Definitely vote to re-elect 35
Consider someone else 17
Definitely someone else 45
Would not vote 1  [then why are they a likely voter??]
Not sure 3

Just to correct you, Selzer's last poll does seem to have a LV screen for approval numbers.

https://localtvwhotv.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/grinnell-college-national-poll-a-challenging-road-to-2020-release-with-data-embargoed-until-september-5-2018.pdf

It was

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 50%
Not Sure: 7%

Sadly, no i.d breakdown. Would be interesting to see if this Trump bump is due to democrats tuning out and not picking up their phones.

Good information, but worth noting that the September poll included 2018 likely voters.  The new poll is their first with 2020 LV.  Are they close to the same?  Yeah, probably, but there may well be differences (some people more likely to vote in a presidential year).  I wouldn't call it comparing apples to oranges, but it would be fair to say it's oranges vs tangerines.

[Thatkat04]

Selzer, Nov. 24-27, 1000 adults including 828 likely 2020 voters (change from Sep.)

Adults:

Approve 43 (+4)
Disapprove 45 (-5)

Vote to re-elect Trump?

Definitely vote to re-elect 32 (+2)
Consider someone else 18 (nc)
Definitely someone else 41 (-2)
Would not vote 5 (nc)
Not sure 4 (+1)

LV (no prior):

Approve 44
Disapprove 47

Vote to re-elect Trump?

Definitely vote to re-elect 35
Consider someone else 17
Definitely someone else 45
Would not vote 1  [then why are they a likely voter??]
Not sure 3

Just to correct you, Selzer's last poll does seem to have a LV screen for approval numbers.

https://localtvwhotv.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/grinnell-college-national-poll-a-challenging-road-to-2020-release-with-data-embargoed-until-september-5-2018.pdf

It was

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 50%
Not Sure: 7%

Sadly, no i.d breakdown. Would be interesting to see if this Trump bump is due to democrats tuning out and not picking up their phones.

Good information, but worth noting that the September poll included 2018 likely voters.  The new poll is their first with 2020 LV.  Are they close to the same?  Yeah, probably, but there may well be differences (some people more likely to vote in a presidential year).  I wouldn't call it comparing apples to oranges, but it would be fair to say it's oranges vs tangerines.

Thats a good point. Thinking about it, there probably were plenty Obama voters who voted republican in the midterms. Could very well happen in 2020.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IBD/TIPP, Nov. 27-Dec. 2, 823 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio (favorability): PPP, Nov. 27-28, 648 RV

Favorable 44
Unfavorable 50

Some 2020 matchups:

Brown 48, Trump 42
Biden 48, Trump 44
Sanders 47, Trump 46
Trump 49, Warren 43

[pbrower2a]

IBD/TIPP, Nov. 27-Dec. 2, 823 adults (1-month change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 55 (+2)

This one suggests no real change since the election.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is just one poll.

Selzer is good, but you are very right. I remember back in September when Selzer had the generic ballot at D+2 and alot of people were freaking out. But as we know, the results weren't +2 and that the average was very accurate. So what I'm trying to say is, put the poll in the average and dont worry too much about individual outliers.

They also had Hubbell leading Reynolds.

[pbrower2a]

This is just one poll.

Selzer is good, but you are very right. I remember back in September when Selzer had the generic ballot at D+2 and alot of people were freaking out. But as we know, the results weren't +2 and that the average was very accurate. So what I'm trying to say is, put the poll in the average and don't worry too much about individual outliers.

They also had Hubbell leading Reynolds.

Republicans seem to have outperformed election polls after 2008. Manipulation or secret strategy? Who knows?

[Person Man]

This is just one poll.

Selzer is good, but you are very right. I remember back in September when Selzer had the generic ballot at D+2 and alot of people were freaking out. But as we know, the results weren't +2 and that the average was very accurate. So what I'm trying to say is, put the poll in the average and don't worry too much about individual outliers.

They also had Hubbell leading Reynolds.

Republicans seem to have outperformed election polls after 2008. Manipulation or secret strategy? Who knows?

I guess they go to your work or to wherever you are at 1 o'clock, and just kidnap you or bribe you with pulled pork, brisket, chicken tendies, snuff, or whatever else gets out the base and then they lure or drag you to the polls by the bus load. Perfect time to run out of ballots.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ohio (favorability): PPP, Nov. 27-28, 648 RV

Favorable 44
Unfavorable 50

Some 2020 matchups:

Brown 48, Trump 42
Biden 48, Trump 44
Sanders 47, Trump 46
Trump 49, Warren 43

holy sexism

[IceSpear]

This is just one poll.

Yes, you should ignore pro-Trump outliers...AND anti-Trump outliers.

Or just don't bother paying attention to the polls at all. We already know from the election we just had that his approximate approval is 45-55.

[Comrade Funk]

Ohio (favorability): PPP, Nov. 27-28, 648 RV

Favorable 44
Unfavorable 50

Some 2020 matchups:

Brown 48, Trump 42
Biden 48, Trump 44
Sanders 47, Trump 46
Trump 49, Warren 43

holy sexism

No. Tell me that when they poll Klobuchar or Harris.

[Person Man]

This is just one poll.

Yes, you should ignore pro-Trump outliers...AND anti-Trump outliers.

Or just don't bother paying attention to the polls at all. We already know from the election we just had that his approximate approval is 45-55.

It will be fun how that electorate turns out in 2020. My guess? We probably get another close, weird map and Democrats edge out a bare win against an elected president. First time since forever. There's a first time for everything. Through Trump, all things are possible.
D 51%
Trump 47%

https://www.270towin.com/

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Ohio (favorability): PPP, Nov. 27-28, 648 RV

Favorable 44
Unfavorable 50

Some 2020 matchups:

Brown 48, Trump 42
Biden 48, Trump 44
Sanders 47, Trump 46
Trump 49, Warren 43

holy sexism

No. Tell me that when they poll Klobuchar or Harris.

Klobuchar will do fine in early polls because no one has heard enough about her to "not trust her" or "just have that feeling." Harris will do poorly, and I will indeed tell you just like you asked.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 4, 1975 RV (prior poll in mid-Nov.)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 42 (+4)

Favorability numbers:

Mitch McConnell 26/43
Paul Ryan 31/46
Nancy Pelosi 31/50
Chuck Schumer 26/40
Mike Pence 42/42
Donald Trump 42/54
R's in Congress 34/54
D's in Congress 43/46
Melania Trump 45/40
Ivanka Trump 39/45
Jared Kushner 24/44
Kellyanne Conway 26/42
Jeff Sessions 20/48
Robert Mueller 35/36

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1070698825571012613

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1070698825571012613

"Judge's"

"Military, Vets, etc."

"75%" approval

The guy is insane.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1070698825571012613

"Judge's"

"Military, Vets, etc."

"75%" approval

The guy is insane.

Interesting how he didn't mention getting his border wall done or repealing Obamacare....

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Favorability numbers:

Mitch McConnell 26/43
Paul Ryan 31/46
Nancy Pelosi 31/50
Chuck Schumer 26/40

So Pelosi's Favs are just as high as Ryan, and higher than both McConnell and Schumer.

[Comrade Funk]

Ivanka Trump 39/45
Jared Kushner 24/44

America's couple

[AudmanOut]

What is ‘presidential harassment’?

[Thank you for being a friend...]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1070698825571012613

"Judge's"

"Military, Vets, etc."

"75%" approval

The guy is insane.

Interesting how he didn't mention getting his border wall done or repealing Obamacare....

This tweet should be placed next to every mention of him in future American textbooks - so that you can see what a nut he was.  He needs double the psychiatric medication he should have already been on by now.  #Nutso

[Progressive Pessimist]

What is ‘presidential harassment’?

Truth.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Nov. 28-Dec. 4, 1075 adults including 835 RV (change from late Oct.)

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-1)

RV:

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

[Thatkat04]

Marist, Nov. 28-Dec. 4, 1075 adults including 835 RV (change from late Oct.)

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 37 (-1)

RV:

Approve 43 (+2)
Disapprove 49 (-3)

Strongly approve 27 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 39 (nc)

So I know we shouldn't read too much into Party I.D but I've been trying to find some correlation between Trump's slight rise in approval and people tuning out from politics.

The Party I.D sample between the two Marist polls is so interesting

November Poll:

37% - Democrat
32% - Republican
30% - Independent

December Poll:

33% - Democrat
27% - Republican
39% - Independent


Maybe some people only identify with a party during elections?

[pbrower2a]

Polling should be interesting this weekend. Senator Richard Burr (R-NC), who has voted 95% of the time with the GOP and has voted against the Trump regime only on sanctions against Iran, North Korea, and Russia, said that anyone who lies to Congress deserves the book thrown at him. 

This is the last week not imaginably part of the Holiday season. Not that I expect any Christmas cheer to help Trump out... I think that we will see interesting polls. The only movement that I can imagine is among Republicans, whether rallying around the wagon or starting to have doubts that they never had before.