Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[BudgieForce]

If I remember right, Marquette has been very stable for Trump, so I'm gonna assume this is an outlier and that he'll recover next month. Still, If I were Baldwin and Evers, I'd be feeling pretty good today.

[pbrower2a]

The decline is also consistent with  a similar decline in polling results of approval nationwide. Wisconsin is close to the national average, so this decrease in approval and increase in disapproval  is a reasonable expectation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GBA Strategies, Sep. 5-9, 1033 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Very long and detailed survey for those who like to dig into crosstabs.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

GBA Strategies, Sep. 5-9, 1033 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Very long and detailed survey for those who like to dig into crosstabs.

Don Jr.'s unfavorable rating is 61%. Bipartisan hatred for that schmuck.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

GBA Strategies, Sep. 5-9, 1033 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Very long and detailed survey for those who like to dig into crosstabs.

Damn, almost 3 to 1 in favor of strong disapprove to strong approve.

[pbrower2a]

GBA Strategies, Sep. 5-9, 1033 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Very long and detailed survey for those who like to dig into crosstabs.

Damn, almost 3 to 1 in favor of strong disapprove to strong approve.

Also, almost half of those polled say that they strongly disapprove of this Presidency.

It could be the Kavanaugh fiasco. This makes Fortas, Carswell, Bork, and Miers nominations look trouble-free by contrast.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GBA Strategies, Sep. 5-9, 1033 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Very long and detailed survey for those who like to dig into crosstabs.

Damn, almost 3 to 1 in favor of strong disapprove to strong approve.

Also, almost half of those polled say that they strongly disapprove of this Presidency.

It could be the Kavanaugh fiasco. This makes Fortas, Carswell, Bork, and Miers nominations look trouble-free by contrast.

Can't be Kavanaugh.  The poll was in the field from Sep. 5-9.  I think it's just part of the general decline in Trump's approvals recently that has been reported by many other pollsters. 

[pbrower2a]

GBA Strategies, Sep. 5-9, 1033 registered voters (change from last month)

Approve 39 (nc)
Disapprove 59 (+2)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+1)

Very long and detailed survey for those who like to dig into crosstabs.

Damn, almost 3 to 1 in favor of strong disapprove to strong approve.

Also, almost half of those polled say that they strongly disapprove of this Presidency.

It could be the Kavanaugh fiasco. This makes Fortas, Carswell, Bork, and Miers nominations look trouble-free by contrast.

Can't be Kavanaugh.  The poll was in the field from Sep. 5-9.  I think it's just part of the general decline in Trump's approvals recently that has been reported by many other pollsters.  

My mistake. I am modifying the original post, as it could be confusing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Sep. 16-18, 1500 adults including 1195 registered voters

Among adults:

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 50 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 39 (+1)

Among RV:

Approve 44 (nc)
Disapprove 53 (+1)

Strongly approve 28 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 45 (+1), R 41 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 13-16, 1564 registered voters

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-3)

Strongly approve 23 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

GCB : D 43 (-2), R 38 (+3)

This is at least the third week in a row that YouGov and Morning Consult have moved in opposite directions.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump approvals in some Sun Belt states, per Ipsos:

Arizona: 45% approve-53% disapprove

California: 36%-63%

Florida: 47%-53%

Nevada: 49%-49%

Texas: 47%-53%

Source: http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-tight-senate-races-across-the-sun-belt/

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Either the number or color is wrong for Indiana in your first map.

[pbrower2a]

Either the number or color is wrong for Indiana in your first map.

Correction made.

[pbrower2a]

Trump approvals in some Sun Belt states, per Ipsos:

Arizona: 45% approve-53% disapprove

California: 36%-63%

Florida: 47%-53%

Nevada: 49%-49%

Texas: 47%-53%

Source: http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-tight-senate-races-across-the-sun-belt/

Texas just as unfriendly to Trump as Florida? Nevada tied?

Arizona seems very consistent. What will it take for people to realize that this state will be a tough hold for Trump? Does someone need a neon sign flashing "YOU LOST US, DONALD TRUMP!"

Missouri, CBS/YouGov

Exact 50-50 tie.

55% or higher dark blue
50-54% medium blue
less than 50% but above disapproval pale blue
even white
46% to 50% but below disapproval pale red
42% to 45% medium red
under 42% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 30
DC 17
DE 39
HI 33
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 45
NE-02 38
NE-03 55
NH 39
RI 30
VT 32

Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

100-Disapproval

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue, but must be a lead of at least 3%)
50% or higher but positive, or a margin less than 3%, pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red
40% to 44% medium red
under 40% deep red

States and districts hard to see:

CT 33
DC 20
DE 43
HI 36
NH 49
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.

*With the explicit question of whether the President should or should not be re-elected (AZ, FL, MI, MN, NH, OH, WI), or 100-DIS if such is all that is available:


Re-elect/do not re-elect if known; 100-DIS otherwise

100-DIS

55% or higher dark blue (but must be a lead of at least 5%)
50% to 54% or higher but not tied medium blue (but must be a lead of at least 3%)
iess than 50% positive or a margin less than 3% pale blue

ties white

45% or higher and negative pale red (or 55% do-not-reelect or higher)
40% to 44% medium red (or 50 to 54% do-not-reelect or higher)
under 40% deep red (or 50% or less do-not-reelect if do-not re-elect if do-not-reelect is higher than reelect)
Ties for elect and re-elect are also in white.

States and districts hard to see:

CT 41
DC 20
DE 43
FL 37-54*
HI 36
MI 28-62*
NH 41-50* (perhaps as much as 41-57, depending upon interpretation)
NJ 37
RI 30
NE-01 55
NE-02 46
NE-03 66
RI 30
VT 36


Nebraska districts are shown as 1, 2, and 3 from left to right on the map, even if they are geographically 3, 1, and 2 from west to east.


Nothing from before November 2017. The poll from Alabama is an  exit poll from the 2017 special election for a Senate seat.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

A couple of state polls from Vox Populi:


Tennessee: Sep. 16-18, 567 "active" voters

Approve 55 (strongly 29)
Disapprove 42 (strongly 33)


Texas: Sep. 16-18, 508 likely voters

Approve 46 (strongly 33)
Disapprove 50 (strongly 41)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another Texas poll, very similar to the Vox Populi result: PPP, Sep. 19-20, 613 registered voters

Approve 47
Disapprove 50

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump approvals in some Sun Belt states, per Ipsos:

Arizona: 45% approve-53% disapprove

California: 36%-63%

Florida: 47%-53%

Nevada: 49%-49%

Texas: 47%-53%

Source: http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/new-polls-tight-senate-races-across-the-sun-belt/

Nevada being weird, or polled incorrectly, as always.

[pbrower2a]

Should Trump struggle to win Texas, then he stands to lose like the elder Bush in 1992 should he barely win the state (because he will be losing states like Georgia and North Carolina); should he lose Texas he is giving the Democrats just over 400 electoral votes even if Texas should be his narrowest loss. States on the brink in the event of a Trump loss of Texas will include Indiana, Missouri, and Montana.

[pbrower2a]

How the states 'fall' based on how they have 'progressed' since January 2017.

In January 2017 only six states gave negative approval for the President. I am assuming that the District of Columbia was never going to vote for President Trump in any but a highly-0rigged election. These states and Dee Cee would have but 35 electoral votes, except for California, but California is one of them.  

Washington, Oregon, Colorado, Connecticut, and surprisingly New Hampshire  slip out of the zone of positive approval in February 2017. Maine's first Congressional district probably slips out here.

Illinois, New Jersey, and Wisconsin (the latter one of first of Trump's wins) go into negative territory for the first time in March. Wisconsin does return to positive territory to Trump in April, only for Maine at-large, Michigan, and Minnesota  to go negative on the President. I'm not holding Wisconsin in the category,

first 80 electoral votes for a Democrat, 90% red.
second 47 electoral votes for a Democrat, 70% red (127 cumulative)
third 62 electoral votes for a Democrat, 50% red.  (189 cumulative)

Things start getting hairier for the President. For the first time, Delaware, Iowa, New York, Ohio, and Pennsylvania give their first negative report on the President, and Wisconsin goes back into negative territory for him. So things are when states and districts with negative approvals for the President reach 275 in May.

first 80 electoral votes for a Democrat, 90% red.
second 47 electoral votes for a Democrat, 70% red (127 cumulative)
third 62 electoral votes for a Democrat, 50% red.  (189 cumulative)
fourth 86 electoral votes for the Democrat, 30% red (275 cumulative)

Nevada and New Mexico go into negative territory in June, but so do Arizona, Florida, and Virginia (what took so long)?Nevada and Ohio go back to neutral, but Indiana goes negative... my compromise will be to keep Ohio in the positive and not recognize Indiana or Nevada in negative territory.

first 80 electoral votes for a Democrat, 90% red.
second 47 electoral votes for a Democrat, 70% red (127 cumulative)
third 62 electoral votes for a Democrat, 50% red.  (189 cumulative)
fourth 86 electoral votes for the Democrat, 30% red (275 cumulative)
fifth 58 electoral votes for the Democrat, white (327 cumulative)

For about a year things have been stable. That's where things were on Morning Consult just about as the Manafort conviction and Cohen plea bargain hit the news. I have seen things get worse for the President in other polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pennsylvania: Muhlenberg College, Sep. 13-19, 404 likely voters

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

GCB: D 50, R 39

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), Sep. 17-20, 1100 adults including 991 registered voters

Among all adults:

Approve 37 (+1)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

Among RV (reconstructed from details in press release, shown below):

Approve 35
Disapprove 60

25% R: 80/13
35% D: 4/95
40% I: 33/58

[pbrower2a]

First '35' for Presidential approval that I have seen for registered or likely voters.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

First '35' for Presidential approval that I have seen for registered or likely voters.

He's gonna be down in the 20s when its all over.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1042814868024438784

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/jonathankappler/status/1042814868024438784

The NC gerrymander starts to fall apart at D+7 and collapses utterly at D+10, so there's hope here. However the swing will be uneven and the affluent suburban districts (NC-9, NC-2) probably fall earlier.