NJ-11 2018: Jay Webber vs. Mikie Sherill: Who wins?

[Suburbia]

Democratic House candidate Mikie Sherill is favored to win the New Jersey's 11th congressional district, a district currently held by retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, a wealthy WASP blue-blood New Jersey Republican in the mold of Tom Kean and Christie Whitman in affluent Morris, Essex and Passaic suburbs, the wealthiest district in NJ.

Republican House candidate Jay Webber is young, conservative and has a middle-class conservative crusade. However, he is struggling to raise money in a Trump anti-GOP midterm where upper middle class white suburban women are probably motivated to vote for Sherill.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2018/07/16/mikie-sherrill-shatters-record-1-9-million-n-j-house-race/788177002/

Who wins?

My prediction: Jay Webber 53%, Mikie Sherill 46%
Webber motivates suburban Morris Republicans, his base, and affluent and middle-class voters to turn out for him. Watch for Sherill to run for a state Senate, state Assembly seat in the future or to run for this seat in 2020 or mount a statewide race in the future. Webber will become a rising star in the Republican Party and will be likely seen as someone who can run statewide.

[Chief Justice Keef]

^ lmao

Sherrill will win, 53-46.

[Suburbia]

^ lmao

Sherrill will win, 53-46.

You know NJ-11 is Christie country, right? Affluent Morris Republicans are hard to beat. This is a seat to watch on Election Night however.

[😥]

It's Lean D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It's Lean D

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I know anecdotal evidence and all that but this is my district and I see practically 0 enthusiasm for Webber (not seen a sign since the primary) while I see tons of Sherill bumper stickers and still a number of signs, and this is in the core Republican part of the district. Yeah it's still early and things could change, but people here don't really care about their state legislators for one (so that advantage doesn't matter a whole lot for Webber) and have been hurt quite a bit by the tax bill, so they're not so hot on federal Republicans in any case at the moment. As I've discussed before, the Morris GOP in a serious crisis, they lost money on a Trump fundraiser, their County Clerk has been involved in a scandal over violation of election law, and they have less than $100,000 on hand total. The Morris GOP is, in my opinion, not equipped to handle an actual challenge and may very well crumble this year, or at least see their grip significantly loosened. And if the GOP's not getting big margins out of Morris, or if they even lose it, they have no shot district wide.

Lean D, closer to Likely at this point

[ON Progressive]

As I've discussed before, the Morris GOP in a serious crisis, they lost money on a Trump fundraiser, their County Clerk has been involved in a scandal over violation of election law, and they have less than $100,000 on hand total.

How incompetent do you have to be to LOSE money on a fundraiser, let alone one with the freaking POTUS? LMAO.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

As I've discussed before, the Morris GOP in a serious crisis, they lost money on a Trump fundraiser, their County Clerk has been involved in a scandal over violation of election law, and they have less than $100,000 on hand total.

How incompetent do you have to be to LOSE money on a fundraiser, let alone one with the freaking POTUS? LMAO.

I was slightly mistaken, it was not with Trump, it was at his golf course in Bernardsville (although they did strongly suggest that maaaaaybe he'd be there wink wink nudge nudge, presumably to try to bring in more people, but he did not show) https://newjerseyglobe.com/section-2/morris-gop-nearly-broke/

But yeah, it's the handiwork of a county party that has been dominant and virtually unchallenged since time immemorial. They have been infected by the same rot and complacency that often infects dominant actors in one-party systems, and one good shove might topple the whole thing. If there were such a year for that to happen, it's this year. Local Dems are finally looking strong enough to deliver such a blow.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I would still consider it a tossup, but Sherrill is a really great candidate. She can definitely win.

[Oryxslayer]

Sherill has a ginormous COH advantage in the expensive NYC media market. Murphy won the seat. I rate it as Lean D, same as Cook.

[Politician]

Democratic House candidate Mikie Sherill is favored to win the New Jersey's 11th congressional district, a district currently held by retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, a wealthy WASP blue-blood New Jersey Republican in the mold of Tom Kean and Christie Whitman in affluent Morris, Essex and Passaic suburbs, the wealthiest district in NJ.

Republican House candidate Jay Webber is young, conservative and has a middle-class conservative crusade. However, he is struggling to raise money in a Trump anti-GOP midterm where upper middle class white suburban women are probably motivated to vote for Sherill.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2018/07/16/mikie-sherrill-shatters-record-1-9-million-n-j-house-race/788177002/

Who wins?

My prediction: Jay Webber 53%, Mikie Sherill 46%
Webber motivates suburban Morris Republicans, his base, and affluent and middle-class voters to turn out for him. Watch for Sherill to run for a state Senate, state Assembly seat in the future or to run for this seat in 2020 or mount a statewide race in the future. Webber will become a rising star in the Republican Party and will be likely seen as someone who can run statewide.

This didn't age well.

[Oryxslayer]

Democratic House candidate Mikie Sherill is favored to win the New Jersey's 11th congressional district, a district currently held by retiring Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, a wealthy WASP blue-blood New Jersey Republican in the mold of Tom Kean and Christie Whitman in affluent Morris, Essex and Passaic suburbs, the wealthiest district in NJ.

Republican House candidate Jay Webber is young, conservative and has a middle-class conservative crusade. However, he is struggling to raise money in a Trump anti-GOP midterm where upper middle class white suburban women are probably motivated to vote for Sherill.

https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/new-jersey/2018/07/16/mikie-sherrill-shatters-record-1-9-million-n-j-house-race/788177002/

Who wins?

My prediction: Jay Webber 53%, Mikie Sherill 46%
Webber motivates suburban Morris Republicans, his base, and affluent and middle-class voters to turn out for him. Watch for Sherill to run for a state Senate, state Assembly seat in the future or to run for this seat in 2020 or mount a statewide race in the future. Webber will become a rising star in the Republican Party and will be likely seen as someone who can run statewide.

This didn't age well.

Sherill has a ginormous COH advantage in the expensive NYC media market. Murphy won the seat. I rate it as Lean D, same as Cook.

This did.

[AudmanOut]

Didn’t she wins by double digits? Imo

[cg41386]

Yes, by 15%.