This project is based off of the Australian/Canadian election series we’ve seen, as well as a project on AH.com called “American Commonwealth” by Lord Caedus. I'll start with the 2017 election, and go in real time using the results for a timeline on the What-If board....so don't expect another poll too soon.
Stretching coast to coast from Newfoundland to San Diego, Alaska to Miami, San Francisco to Victoria, the Commonwealth of America today sits as the world’s foremost superpower, surpassing the mother country in the aftermath of the Second World War as the rising star of an otherwise fading Empire. A Commonwealth consisting of fifty six provinces, a pitter-patter of territories, and the Crown District of Victoria with total population just shy of 350 million, the Commonwealth is the economic, military, and political heavyweight of the British Empire and the western world as a whole.
The American story’s real beginnings lay in the stillborn American Revolution and Benjamin Franklin’s subsequent efforts to reconcile the still simmering colonies with the crown. In 1785, his efforts paid off – Parliament passed the North America Act, and the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia established a union of the colonies at long last. Overtime, America expanded westward with tragic consequences for its aboriginal peoples; other tragedies, such as the enslavement of African Americans and their continued suffering due to Jim Crow remain a scar on the nation’s whose very ideals of liberty and equality were for much of the Commonwealth’s history were merely platitudes. It would take the Civil War, a destructive conflict spurred on by the Seward government’s efforts to eliminate slavery and the following secession of the southern provinces to ultimately set America on the course towards justice.
Over the next century, the wounds of the war healed, and America underwent an industrial revolution that catapulted it to the forefront of world affairs by the end of the First World War. In the aftermath of the Second World War, a succession of Prime Ministers, starting with Thomas Dewey (with a brief departure during the short lived government of Robert Taft) and continuing with Harold Stassen, stuck to the “Cold War consensus” that defined American politics during the Cold War. The post-World War II prosperity that had fueled America’s rise during the fifties however was fragile, and as the decade gave way to the 1960s, a changing culture and world threatened the post war harmony. The war in Vietnam embroiled America in one of the worst foreign policy quagmires in memory, and divided the nation in the process. Ultimately though, the West prevailed in the Cold War, and America now nears the third decade of the new millennium as a three party system for the first time.
Recently, Jeanne Shaheen’s four years in office have seen the restoration of the Liberal Party’s fortunes; riding (relatively) high in the polls after the successful diplomatic deals with Iran and Cuba along with the defeat of ISIS, Hillary Clinton’s disastrous government and her subsequent 2010 wipeout now seems like a distant memory. But the Liberals lock on government is not guaranteed. The Conservatives have been out of power for seven years and are hell bent on seizing it back. Meanwhile, the Progressive Democrats – having had their first taste themselves under Bernie Sanders – are equally determined to form for the second time a government.
The race has been dominated by three issues: immigration, the economy, and national security. Though the Liberal government has made headway against ISIS in the Middle East, the Shaheen governments ineffective response to Russian cyberattacks in the lead-up to the campaign has given the leader of the opposition Bobby Jindal new ammunition against the Prime Minister. The flood of refugees and migrants from Central America as well as changing demographics as brought immigration to the forefront as the people of the Commonwealth hotly debate American values in one of the most acrimonious periods in recent memory. Lastly, the constant specter of mass shootings and terrorism have led to rekindled debate on the extent of the government’s role in keeping the public safe.
The three debates highlighted a sentiment that seemed tripartisan in nature – that all three major leaders are just two boring for such exciting times. Yet the acrimony that came with the election did little to suppress voter enthusiasm – in fact, turnout is expected to be high in America’s third consecutive three party race for the top job in the Commonwealth. Now, with Monday, November 6th – Election Day – having finally arrived, America awaits for the votes to be cast. With 350 ridings and a further 351 list seats up for grabs, the future of the Commonwealth and the government of Jeanne Shaheen now lies in the voters hands.
Conservative (Bobby Jindal): There has been an aurora of uncertainty over Bobby Jindal’s leadership of the Conservative Party ever since the party’s narrow loss in the 2013 federal election. Yet Jindal managed to carry on, albeit wounded, and has over the course of the last four years defined the Tories as the true party of modern American movement conservatism.
Jindal and the Tories offered up one of the most right-leaning platforms in party history, calling for the establishment of a “blue ribbon commission” to examine entitlement reforms, a national right to work program, vast deregulation, and fiscal austerity to combat the national debt. The party likewise has taken a firm stance on national security issues, calling for the enlargement of the military and for stronger action to reign in Russia and China on the world stage. Jindal has not ruled out using military force against rogue states like Iran or North Korea, who continue to maintain nuclear ambitions.
Liberal (Jeanne Shaheen): In some ways, Jeanne Shaheen has solidified the legacy of Bernie Sanders despite defeating him at the polls in 2013. Under her government, subsidies for child care have been issued, the minimum wage has been raised, the federal government has halted the enforcement of anti-marijuana legislation – effectively decriminalizing it, and has opened up trade relations with Cuba as well as inking a landmark nuclear deal with Iran. Whereas Jindal’s hold over his increasingly right leaning party is tenuous at best, Shaheen has united the Grits around a more outwardly progressive platform.
In a potential second term, Shaheen is promising a bolder agenda of domestic reform. From strident regulation to root out sexual harassment and corruption in government ministries to significantly altering the Senate, the Grit message of “New Liberalism” is popular with the party’s base but untested so far with the voting public. Shaheen has called climate change the number one security threat to the Commonwealth, and plans proactive measures to fight it.
Progressive Democratic (Amy Kloubuchar): The Progressive Democrats have fallen onto hard times since 2013, with a divisive leadership election resulting in Amy Kloubuchar’s election as a compromise. Since taking over the leadership, Kloubuchar has brought the party to the center, in hopes of gaining the support of Liberal voters, a move that has brought her under fire from some members of the party’s left leaning base. Still, she retains the support of the trade unions and has the begrudging support of the more progressive leaning demographic of the voting public for the time being.
The Progressive Democratic platform was criticized in the press for being “outdated” due to its reliance on traditional planks (ie, nationalize utilities such as electric, water, implement firmer Wall Street regulations, opposition to attempts to do away with collective bargaining, etc, etc) along with updated planks for the protection of transgender rights, net neutrality, amnesty for illegal immigrants, and so forth. The party has also taken a more pragmatic outlook to international affairs, and Kloubuchar’s mild embrace of some proposed free trade treaties has irked the party’s voters.
Libertarian (Gary Johnson): Under Gary Johnson, much of the success the party achieved in the Ron Paul era has been eroded away. Johnson has made a series of missteps and blunders as he attempts to move the Libertarian Party to the center, embracing what some of the party’s hardliners have dismissed as “low tax liberalism.” With popular discontent with all three major parties at an all-time high, Johnson is hoping to capitalize on the growing wave of anti-establishment populism to propel the party to victory in 2017.
The party remains true, by and large, to the original tenants of libertarianism. The party strongly supports the second amendment, marijuana legalization, the privatization of public industries, and the removal of any and all trade barriers. However, Johnson has taken a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy, mimicking Shaheen’s doctrine of “smart power.” Whether this strategy of “normalizing” the famously radical party will pay off is unseen.
American Heritage (Tom Tancredo): Tom Tancredo has revitalized the American Heritage Party, leading the far-right outfit to pick up a number of constituency and list seats in the 2013 federal election. Having successfully energized the base and riding on the rising populist tidal wave, Tancredo is hoping to put his party in the kingmaker position for the first time.
On the issues, little has changed. The party has embraced hardline measures to curtail illegal immigration, the implementation of protectionist trade policies, support for the police, opposition to gun control and abortion, and so forth. The media has recently given many in the party the label of “alt-right,” though this has done little to effect the party’s position in the polls.
Green (Elizabeth May): The Greens are running on the platform of “new politics” in 2017, which they define as grassroots democracy. Elizabeth May has been criticized during the campaign for her firm control over the Greens – her leadership having lasted over a decade now – and for dismissing allegations of workplace bullying. Yet May has ignored these distractions in order to pursue the support of young voters who feel Kloubuchar has weakened the political legacy of Bernie Sanders.
The Greens support proactive action to tackle climate change, greater environmental regulations in regards to pollution and water and air quality. They also support legislation to protect and expand animal rights, seek a repeal of the second amendment, and firmer regulation of Wall Street as well as expansion of public housing programs.
Progressive Conservative (John Tory): Though limited to small pockets of support in the Northeast, John Tory and the Conservative pivot to the right has breathed new life into the Progressive Conservative Party. With the strategic aim of curtailing a potential Conservative majority in order to rein in Jindal’s agenda, the Progressive Conservative Party has held firm to their longstanding beliefs in Red Tory values.
The Progressive Conservatives are calling for tax and spending cuts (though far weaker than the Tories), a stronger defensive posturing (specifically in regards to cyber security), the protection of long established social welfare programs, and the continuation of the “post-war consensus” into the 21st century.
Results of the 2013 Federal Election.
So this is the plan: the results of this poll will determine the outcome of the 2017 election, which will be the start of a new of yet another project by me. I hope to complete it this time, and I'll have three weeks off starting tomorrow afternoon.
Credit to AH.com's Lord Caedus for the concept.
Poll
