Democrats/Dem. leaning Independents: What scenario would you prefer?

[President Johnson]

This question should be interesting for Democrats or liberal-leaning Independents. Or anyone preferring Democrats to Donald Trump.


Scenario 1: Democrats fail to regain the House in 2018, only picking up 15 seats, which is not enough. They also fail to to win the senate due to losses in Florida, North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana (Arizona and Nevada flip Democratic). By 2020, Donald Trump and Republicans own a lagging economy and problems with healthcare in addition to countless scandals; a Democrat (any realistic candidate you want) wins the election and unseats Trump. It is a bare 278-260 electoral win (popular vote is 49-46%). Democrat only wins back the three states in the Rust Belt that cost Hillary the election. However, Republicans are able to maintain their majorities in both houses of congress. Means, Democratic president is likely to have a Republican congress for his or her entire tenure, even if he or she wins again in 2024. 2022 is likely to be another 2010 or 2014.


Scenario 2: Democrats do very well in 2018 and gain 40 seats in the House. The senate flips also: Democrats only lose Indiana while picking up Nevada, Arizona, Texas (!) and Tennessee. In 2020, despite losing 5 seats in the House (still confortable Democratic majority) and gains in the senate due to favorable map, Donald Trump is able win reelection. He wins all 2016 states minus Michigan, but picks up Nevada and New Hampshire. He loses the popular vote again 47-49%. In the 2022 midterms, Democrats gain more ground in the senate and flip another 20 seats in the House. In 2024, a realistic Democratic nominee (anyone you want) beats Mike Pence (the Republican nominee) in a landslide of 370+ electoral votes and 54-44% in the popular vote. Democrats maintain the majorities on Capitol Hill and control the entire federal government on January 20, 2025.


Honestly, I go with scenario 2. In the first scenario, the new Democratic president's power is crippled from the beginning on. Also: Republicans can still block any Supreme Court nominee and Trump could even do more damage in the second half of his term. In the scenario, the Democratic president is even more likely to lose his mandate after one term. In the second scenario, Democrats can block Trump for remainder of his tenure or make him putting up a moderate. Also, in 2025, Democrats can pass tons of progressive legislation. Seems to be better to wait another four years, even as terrible as Trump is.

[😥]

2

[Beet]

One thing you missed is redistricting in 2021. If Republicans have a very good 2020, we will be in charge as in 2010 and might be able to prevent lower level Democratic victories in the 2020's, even if Trump's successor loses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems aren't gonna win 40 seats, Dems do need to win on 8/7th and win the Gubernatorial election in Ohio, so that it breaks the EC advantage the GOP has on the Dems.  Dems should win the House of Representatives and the Senate along with it, as long as the dems win TN and or TX.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think this question would be more interesting if the Republicans are able to control the Senate in scenario 2 up until 2022 and are able to replace either Ginsburg or Breyer with a Conservative Justice.


Then I wonder what the Democrats would rather want scenario 1 or Scenario 2 with Republicans getting to replace Ginsburg or Breyer with a Conservative Justice

[courts]

probably option 2

[dw93]

Option 1. I'd rather keep the court 5-4 rather than 6-3 or god forbid 7-2.

[Illiniwek]

Option 1. I'd rather keep the court 5-4 rather than 6-3 or god forbid 7-2.

But we'd have the Senate right? There's no way we'd let trump have another conservative justice.

[dw93]

Option 1. I'd rather keep the court 5-4 rather than 6-3 or god forbid 7-2.

But we'd have the Senate right? There's no way we'd let trump have another conservative justice.

Heitkamp and Manchin would side with the GOP as would any senators like them elected in 2020 and 2022. I'd rather have two Garland types appointed by a Democratic President replace RBG and Breyer than Conservatives in the mold of Gorsuch or Kavenaugh that are appointed by a two term Trump. It's bad enough we might see the lower courts become lopsided in the next two years, we don't need the highest court in the land to be lopsided to, and given the events of recent weeks, I'd rather have four to eight years of gridlock at home and a shot at restoring broken relationships with our allies than have another term of Trump and have no allies and god forbid stumble into an international crisis of sorts.