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News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  IL-Victory Research: Pritzker +15
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Author Topic: IL-Victory Research: Pritzker +15  (Read 1488 times)
IceSpear
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« on: July 22, 2018, 12:08:32 AM »

Pritzker 45
Rauner 30
McCann 5

https://www.illinoispoliticsblog.com/single-post/2018/07/02/Pritzker-Leads-Rauner-by-15-percent-in-4-way-race-for-Governor
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jrk26
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« Reply #1 on: July 22, 2018, 12:09:04 AM »

30% for an incumbent governor...ouch
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: July 22, 2018, 12:10:45 AM »

Interestingly, though perhaps not surprisingly considering Pritzker is trash, Rauner actually has a small lead in the Collar Counties and among independents. McCann is siphoning a decent amount of Republicans away from Rauner, particularly in downstate.

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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2018, 12:20:58 AM »

Rauner is gone
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jrk26
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« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2018, 12:22:39 AM »


Yup.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2018, 03:35:49 AM »

Safe Democratic. Nothing to see here. I think Pritzker will win 55-40%.
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2018, 03:39:47 AM »

Likely R -> Lean R
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jimmie
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2018, 03:39:59 AM »

oh no! I am going to look crazy if Pritzker wins but loses some of the collar counties!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: July 22, 2018, 04:27:49 AM »

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Skye
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« Reply #9 on: July 22, 2018, 08:52:24 AM »

I wonder if Rauner ends up losing worse than Mark Kirk. It looks like it at this point.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: July 22, 2018, 08:55:16 AM »

Rauner is an awful human being and deserves everything he has coming to him this fall.
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#PACK THE COURTS
Solid4096
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« Reply #11 on: July 22, 2018, 03:20:17 PM »

I told people that Rauner was going to win DuPage but people said I was crazy for thinking that.
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money printer go brrr
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« Reply #12 on: July 22, 2018, 03:42:25 PM »

Woof at Rauner's numbers downstate. Normally I'd assume he'll pull in a lot of those undecideds but considering there's an independent at 10% (!!) in each I'm not sure how much of the share he'll get.

God I'm looking forward to this map.
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#PACK THE COURTS
Solid4096
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« Reply #13 on: July 22, 2018, 03:55:37 PM »

Northern Illinois tied.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #14 on: July 22, 2018, 04:02:18 PM »

A corrupt politician replacing a corrupt governor...and the cycle in Illinois continues.
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Neoliberalism Is The Enemy Of Civilization
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #15 on: July 22, 2018, 04:03:10 PM »

Pritzker is sending Right To Work Rauner packing. Hopefully WI gets rid of their Randian villain as well.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: July 22, 2018, 04:35:15 PM »

Likewise Michigan.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #17 on: July 22, 2018, 04:37:53 PM »

Pritzker is sending Right To Work Rauner packing. Hopefully WI gets rid of their Randian villain as well.

Right now, with Tony Evers as the nominee, Walker is in the drivers seat. Dems have a better chance in FL
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #18 on: July 22, 2018, 04:57:02 PM »

Those actual results would produce a fairly retro county map.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #19 on: July 22, 2018, 05:17:50 PM »

Rauner is an awful human being and deserves everything he has coming to him this fall.

Largely true, plus Pritzker is exactly the kind of governor Illinois deserves.

Safe D, obviously.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: July 22, 2018, 05:39:00 PM »

Rauner is an awful human being and deserves everything he has coming to him this fall.

Largely true, plus Pritzker is exactly the kind of governor Illinois deserves.

Safe D, obviously.

I find it astonishing that he looks so similar to Blago.

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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: July 22, 2018, 05:44:24 PM »

oh no! I am going to look crazy if Pritzker wins but loses some of the collar counties!

Hillary dominated in the collar counties because she wasn't Trump. Duckworth did well in them despite being Kirk's home turf because she was a very strong candidate.

Rauner is a pretty good fit for the area and considering the Dems nominated a trash-tier candidate like Pritzker, it's not surprising he's holding up (relatively) well there. The real shame is that Dems didn't take this opportunity to nominate a good (or even average) candidate and pound the IL GOP into dust. I can only imagine how Rauner would be faring against an Obama or Duckworth caliber candidate right now.
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Not_Madigan
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« Reply #22 on: July 22, 2018, 05:46:24 PM »

I'll be in that 1.7% of Kash Jackson voters Tongue

Likely D, unless McCann collapses and Pritzker gets some huge scandal dumped on him it's over for Rauner.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #23 on: July 22, 2018, 05:50:57 PM »

I'll be in that 1.7% of Kash Jackson voters Tongue

Are you sure? Apparently he's a deadbeat dad and possible wife beater.

I certainly do not envy Illinois voters this year...lol.
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jimmie
jamespol
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« Reply #24 on: July 22, 2018, 05:53:07 PM »

oh no! I am going to look crazy if Pritzker wins but loses some of the collar counties!

Hillary dominated in the collar counties because she wasn't Trump. Duckworth did well in them despite being Kirk's home turf because she was a very strong candidate.

Rauner is a pretty good fit for the area and considering the Dems nominated a trash-tier candidate like Pritzker, it's not surprising he's holding up (relatively) well there. The real shame is that Dems didn't take this opportunity to nominate a good (or even average) candidate and pound the IL GOP into dust. I can only imagine how Rauner would be faring against an Obama or Duckworth caliber candidate right now.

I am a huge proponent that the collar counties are going to becoming titanium Democratic. However I am frightened at the prospect that it will only be true for federal elections. In 2016 in the comptroller special election the GOP did very well in all the collars.

It would mean down ballot Illinois is a swing state.

But I think at the end... Pritzker wins Lake County at the VERY least and I think considering the environment that he will pull out a narrow victory in DuPage.

I just do not want my astrology discredited. I am an open moderate hero and support virtually all the Democratic state GOP governors but I only support Pritzker because he proves my theory that Illinois is not a swing state.
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