SC GOV 2018- megathread... James Smith (D) vs Henry McMaster (R)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Most recent governor related news:

A judge has blocked McMaster's plan to cut Planned Parenthood funding.

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/local/south-carolina/2018/08/29/planned-parenthood-wins-temporary-injunction/1131170002/

The RGA has released an attack ad on Smith.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/south-carolina/articles/2018-08-29/rga-ad-critical-of-south-carolina-governor-nominee-on-taxes

and also I guess if you wanted to know Smith's energy positions there's this thing: http://blog.cleanenergy.org/2018/08/29/where-the-2018-candidates-stand-on-energy-democratic-nominee-for-south-carolina-governor-james-smith/

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

As it turns out, that "tax increase"? That was for funding infrastructure, and was backed by both Democrats and Republicans. It increased gas taxes by 2 cents per gallon per year, which basically just seemed like a normal fluctuation.

Being honest I'm not surprised, our roads are a mess but people don't wanna pay "muh taxes" even if it literally is indistinguishable.

[libertpaulian]

This is one race I'm really interested in.  Wish there was more news on it.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Jim Hodges (D) won in 1998.  That was 20 years ago.

SC is actually trending Democratic somewhat, moreso than MS, but no one seems to pick that up.  The white voters moving to SC from other states are a more elastic electorate than the MS white vote.

[libertpaulian]

Jim Hodges (D) won in 1998.  That was 20 years ago.

SC is actually trending Democratic somewhat, moreso than MS, but no one seems to pick that up.  The white voters moving to SC from other states are a more elastic electorate than the MS white vote.

The problem is that the Charlotte suburbs in the Upcountry behave more like the Bible Belt version of the Wisconsin WOW counties than they do Cobb/Gwinnett, the OC, or NOVA.  Not to mention there's enough rural vote that Dems have to figure out how to cut into.

[IceSpear]

Jim Hodges (D) won in 1998.  That was 20 years ago.

SC is actually trending Democratic somewhat, moreso than MS, but no one seems to pick that up.  The white voters moving to SC from other states are a more elastic electorate than the MS white vote.

The problem is that the Charlotte suburbs in the Upcountry behave more like the Bible Belt version of the Wisconsin WOW counties than they do Cobb/Gwinnett, the OC, or NOVA.  Not to mention there's enough rural vote that Dems have to figure out how to cut into.

It'll help if Republicans ever give them another assist by nominating someone named Nimrata Randhawa again.  But Henry McMaster? No dice.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Jim Hodges (D) won in 1998.  That was 20 years ago.

SC is actually trending Democratic somewhat, moreso than MS, but no one seems to pick that up.  The white voters moving to SC from other states are a more elastic electorate than the MS white vote.

The problem is that the Charlotte suburbs in the Upcountry behave more like the Bible Belt version of the Wisconsin WOW counties than they do Cobb/Gwinnett, the OC, or NOVA.  Not to mention there's enough rural vote that Dems have to figure out how to cut into.

It'll help if Republicans ever give them another assist by nominating someone named Nimrata Randhawa again.  But Henry McMaster? No dice.

I don’t think Smith will win, but I think he’ll come within 5-8% and we’ll see a bunch of #BlueSC hot takes. 

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

From a couple days ago... Smith was called to serve with the National Guard in West Columbia.

http://www.wistv.com/story/39071444/sc-gubernatorial-candidate-called-for-army-national-guard-duty-as-hurricane-florence-approaches

He's suspended his campaign for a while as he serves in the emergency response efforts.

[Tintrlvr]

Jim Hodges (D) won in 1998.  That was 20 years ago.

SC is actually trending Democratic somewhat, moreso than MS, but no one seems to pick that up.  The white voters moving to SC from other states are a more elastic electorate than the MS white vote.

I wouldn't be surprised by a North Carolina 2008-type result from South Carolina around 2024 or 2028 that shocks a lot of people and after which South Carolina is seen as a lean-R swing state like North Carolina is now. But there's a fair amount of time still before that becomes reality.

[SCNCmod]

Granted its far easier for a Dem to win Governor races in NC than SC (4 of the last 5 NC Governors are Dems)..vs.. (26 of last 30 years -or- 4 of the last 5 SC Governors are Republicans)

That said- this year is very different only because of the specific matchup in the SC election (Smith is a strong candidate who comes off as Moderate & very capable vs McMaster who is perceived by many as an incompetent buffoon).   IMO you can almost bank on James Smith being the next Governor of SC (I would put his chances at 75%+).

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Clyburn is helping Smith extensively with strategy, and some other D's are coming down soon.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article218233055.html

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[Yellowhammer]

(I would put his chances at 75%+).

You forgot the decimal. His odds are closer to 7.5%.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I give Smith about 10-15% chances of winning right now, but new polling would help me really decide.

[Virginiá]

Have there been any polls for this race, or any other indicators for where it currently stands?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Have there been any polls for this race, or any other indicators for where it currently stands?

there's been 2 polls, but they're both internals. It averages out to McMaster +7.5 right now.

[TheSaint250]

Granted its far easier for a Dem to win Governor races in NC than SC (4 of the last 5 NC Governors are Dems)..vs.. (26 of last 30 years -or- 4 of the last 5 SC Governors are Republicans)

That said- this year is very different only because of the specific matchup in the SC election (Smith is a strong candidate who comes off as Moderate & very capable vs McMaster who is perceived by many as an incompetent buffoon).   IMO you can almost bank on James Smith being the next Governor of SC (I would put his chances at 75%+).

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

[MT Treasurer]

That said- this year is very different only because of the specific matchup in the SC election (Smith is a strong candidate who comes off as Moderate & very capable vs McMaster who is perceived by many as an incompetent buffoon).   IMO you can almost bank on James Smith being the next Governor of SC (I would put his chances at 75%+).

Peak Atlas right there.

[SCNCmod]

That said- this year is very different only because of the specific matchup in the SC election (Smith is a strong candidate who comes off as Moderate & very capable vs McMaster who is perceived by many as an incompetent buffoon).   IMO you can almost bank on James Smith being the next Governor of SC (I would put his chances at 75%+).

Peak Atlas right there.

I will gladly accept all of the criticism and jokes my 75% is getting (which would be warranted with almost any other match-up in any other year)... and I will certainly say I read the race all wrong if McMaster wins
... so long as I also get credit when Smith wins for seeing the writing on the wall of where the electorate will end up come election day (rather than just a lucky guess).

[libertpaulian]

That said- this year is very different only because of the specific matchup in the SC election (Smith is a strong candidate who comes off as Moderate & very capable vs McMaster who is perceived by many as an incompetent buffoon).   IMO you can almost bank on James Smith being the next Governor of SC (I would put his chances at 75%+).

Peak Atlas right there.

I will gladly accept all of the criticism and jokes my 75% is getting (which would be warranted with almost any other match-up in any other year)... and I will certainly say I read the race all wrong if McMaster wins
... so long as I also get credit when Smith wins for seeing the writing on the wall of where the electorate will end up come election day (rather than just a lucky guess).

What are you banking your prediction on?  You hearing word from the ground of your neighbor to the south?

[SCNCmod]

I guess if rumors that Lindsay Graham is aiming for Attorney General are correct... Graham will likely be campaigning for McMaster pretty hard. If McMaster were to lose- any chance of a Graham Attorney General will go up in smoke (since Smith would appoint his replacement).

Maybe far fetched... but this could be one reason the President wants to wait until after the election to fire Rosenstein (so he could see all of the options available- and not prematurely screw himself out of a Senator)

[IceSpear]

I guess if rumors that Lindsay Graham is aiming for Attorney General are correct... Graham will likely be campaigning for McMaster pretty hard. If McMaster were to lose- any chance of a Graham Attorney General will go up in smoke (since Smith would appoint his replacement).

Maybe far fetched... but this could be one reason the President wants to wait until after the election to fire Rosenstein (so he could see all of the options available- and not prematurely screw himself out of a Senator)

Linds would be the most fabulous Attorney General ever.

[henster]

Why would Graham want to be an AG for a possible one term President instead of being a lifer in the Senate?

[SCNCmod]

James Smith 1st Governor Ad (he has another one that started airing last week that I will try to find and post).  I will also try to find video to post for McMaster Ads.

https://twitter.com/JamesSmithforSC/status/1042784950309871616


Photo of James Smith & his Lt Governor running mate Mandy Norell:
https://twitter.com/JamesSmithforSC/status/1046950927180214272

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

SC has too many retirees moving in and the black population is decreasing. MS will take a while(maybe a few decades), but it will be competitive when 43-45 % of population is black. They will be the first after Georgia.