SC GOV 2018- megathread... James Smith (D) vs Henry McMaster (R)

[SCNCmod]

It may not be a bold prediction to those in SC... but I would put James Smith is the odds on favorite to win.  This would probably not be the case had anyone else won the Republican Primary... but I see Smith getting a good amount of Republican crossover votes.

1) McMaster is not popular with the younger generation of republicans (hence all of the Republican primary candidate endorsed his opponent in the runoff... and some did this despite almost disdain for his opponent).

2) McMaster has never been a strong candidate in past elections- in fact he did not even make the runoff when he last ran for Governor... and many see him as not very bright (whether that is actually true or not).

3) James Smith has been Senate minority leader for several years and is respected (and friends with) many republicans at the state house.

4) Also, Smith is the much younger candidate, seems fresher, and will be able to have some strong ads highlighting his military service- so it will be hard to paint him as too liberal to the general public.

Smith youtube intro:

[South Dakota Democrat]

Sounds intriguing.  I too have thought that the dems could win this race, but wasn't sure.  Haley didn't win with a huge margin in 2010, so it's definitely possible.  Any polling data yet?

[SCNCmod]

Sounds intriguing.  I too have thought that the dems could win this race, but wasn't sure.  Haley didn't win with a huge margin in 2010, so it's definitely possible.  Any polling data yet?

Despite some issues with some people in SC... I actually think Haley would be a much stronger Stronger candidate & would be hard for a Dem to win against. (When Haley was elected Governor... McMaster did not even make the run off).

No Polling data yet that I've seen..

???BTW- what is the code to embed a youtube video (I can not remember or find the correct code)

[Jersey Jimmy]

God, I'd love this. I'm definitely voting for him.

[SCNCmod]

McMaster's Close ties to Trump could backfire in SC in November as well... I think I read that proportionally South Carolina will be hurt more than any other state in the Country by Trump's Trade war ... and the main victims are Republican/ or Republican areas (Farmers & Greenville/Spartanburg ... which is home to the largest BMW factory in the World).... so those voters may be less motivated.

Also- James Smith should be helped by a Strong Dem US House candidate (James Cunningham) ... running for Mark Sanford's seat in the Charleston area (and likely many Sanford supporters since Sanford lost the primary to a Trump backed candidate). James Cunningham is a younger Dem candidate who will likely have enthusiastic turnout in the low country.... his kickoff video is below:

James Cunningham(D) US House:

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I think this is going to be one of those races that will be surprisingly close. McMaster is, as i've said five million times, uncharismatic and boring to the extreme. Smith has some good positions, is actually likable, and is running in a D wave year. The fact Haley only won by <5% in 2010, a large R wave year, shows how SC isn't as much of an R stronghold as many believe. I would be pleasantly surprised if it happens though. Right now I'd say Lean R.

[IceSpear]

The fact Haley Nimrata Randhawa only won by <5% in 2010, a large R wave year, shows how SC is n't as much even more of an R stronghold deplorable as than many believe.

[Zaybay]

Its possible, but it would require some funding to do, and I dont think James has been fundraising that well.

[SCNCmod]

Its possible, but it would require some funding to do, and I dont think James has been fundraising that well.

My guess is he will be fine with Funding... he is well connected (most Senate minority leaders, even at the state level, usually are good regarding funding)... Also, I'm pretty sure he (or his family?) has plenty of Money to draw from as well.

[SCNCmod]

The fact Haley only won by <5% in 2010, a large R wave year, shows how SC isn't as much of an R stronghold as many believe. I would be pleasantly surprised if it happens though. Right now I'd say Lean R.

I think SC will continue to be Safely Republican for a while when it comes to Presidential Elections- But like many states- Governors races tend to offer the best opportunity for a minority party to win a statewide race.
I also don't think it would be out of the question (ordinarily) to elect a Dem Senator (if the right candidate and matchup happened)... But that probably will not happen for a while- Since I think Graham is safe for many years to come & he usually gets a fair amount of crossover vote... and Scott is probably pretty safe for a while as well  since I think he gets a decent amount of crossover votes from Black Dems.  Although I think Scott would be vulnerable before Graham- as I think Scott is definitely a sub par Senator overall.

[Zaybay]

The fact Haley only won by <5% in 2010, a large R wave year, shows how SC isn't as much of an R stronghold as many believe. I would be pleasantly surprised if it happens though. Right now I'd say Lean R.

I think SC will continue to be Safely Republican for a while when it comes to Presidential Elections- But like many states- Governors races tend to offer the best opportunity for a minority party to win a statewide race.
I also don't think it would be out of the question (ordinarily) to elect a Dem Senator (if the right candidate and matchup happened)... But that probably will not happen for a while- Since I think Graham is safe for many years to come & he usually gets a fair amount of crossover vote... and Scott is probably pretty safe for a while as well  since I think he gets a decent amount of crossover votes from Black Dems.  Although I think Scott would be vulnerable before Graham- as I think Scott is definitely a sub par Senator overall.

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

[SCNCmod]

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

Actually  this is incorrect... Tim Scott always finishes 5% higher than other Republicans

(ie 5pt higher than Trump in 2016 .... 5pts higher than Graham in 2014 who was also running for Senate that year... as well as 5pts better than Haley who was running statewide in 2014.   This also seems to bare out when you look a several high African American population counties.  There isn't much good exit poll data to go on .. especially that would be accurate w/in 5%- but raw vote total seem to indicate Scott always gets 5% higher vote totals than every other statewide Republican.....  its also hard to factor what percent of crossover Black vote he may get in future elections if he was the only Black candidate in the senate general election (both of his 1st 2 senate elections he faced an African American as the Dem candidate).

[Zaybay]

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

Actually  this is incorrect... He always finishes 5% higher than other Republicans

(ie 5pt higher than Trump in 2016 .... 5pts higher than Graham in 2014 who was also running for Senate that year... as well as 5pts better than Haley who was running statewide in 2014.   This also seems to bare out when you look a several high African American population counties.  There isn't much good exit poll data to go on .. especially that would be accurate w/in 5%- but raw vote total seem to indicate Scott always gets 5% higher vote totals than every other statewide Republican.....  its also hard to factor what percent of crossover Black vote he would get if he was the only Black candidate on the ballot (both of his 1st 2 senate elections he faced an African American as the Dem candidate).

Haley and Lindsey were rather poor candidates, though Haley has defiantly improved since her job promotion. Lindsey suffers from a lackluster approval from the state, and is sort of always destined to win by low margins.

There have been many studies that show that the ethnicity of a candidate, such as AA, does not effect the way a person would vote. AAs will usually vote for the Democrat, even if they are white, and the R is Black. Its actually more pronounced with the gender of the candidate, considering the D base is mostly female and the R base is mostly male.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

Actually  this is incorrect... Tim Scott always finishes 5% higher than other Republicans

(ie 5pt higher than Trump in 2016 .... 5pts higher than Graham in 2014 who was also running for Senate that year... as well as 5pts better than Haley who was running statewide in 2014.   This also seems to bare out when you look a several high African American population counties.  There isn't much good exit poll data to go on .. especially that would be accurate w/in 5%- but raw vote total seem to indicate Scott always gets 5% higher vote totals than every other statewide Republican.....  its also hard to factor what percent of crossover Black vote he may get in future elections if he was the only Black candidate in the senate general election (both of his 1st 2 senate elections he faced an African American as the Dem candidate).

Exit polling in 2014 indicated he got 10% of the black vote.  Exit polling in 2016 indicated that he got 8% of the black vote. 

[SCNCmod]

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

Actually  this is incorrect... He always finishes 5% higher than other Republicans

(ie 5pt higher than Trump in 2016 .... 5pts higher than Graham in 2014 who was also running for Senate that year... as well as 5pts better than Haley who was running statewide in 2014.   This also seems to bare out when you look a several high African American population counties.  There isn't much good exit poll data to go on .. especially that would be accurate w/in 5%- but raw vote total seem to indicate Scott always gets 5% higher vote totals than every other statewide Republican.....  its also hard to factor what percent of crossover Black vote he would get if he was the only Black candidate on the ballot (both of his 1st 2 senate elections he faced an African American as the Dem candidate).

Haley and Lindsey were rather poor candidates, though Haley has defiantly improved since her job promotion. Lindsey suffers from a lackluster approval from the state, and is sort of always destined to win by low margins.

There have been many studies that show that the ethnicity of a candidate, such as AA, does not effect the way a person would vote. AAs will usually vote for the Democrat, even if they are white, and the R is Black. Its actually more pronounced with the gender of the candidate, considering the D base is mostly female and the R base is mostly male.

It probably varies by state & region... but in South Carolina & most of North Carolina the overall studies you noted ... do not hold true.  And there are perfectly valid reasons for such votes in the rural south (which describes almost all of SC & most of NC).  I grew up in this area and at least anecdotally from those I know and talk to- minorities are more likely to vote for a minority on the ballot... and as I said above- imo there are very valid reasons to do so.

Regarding Tim Scott always getting 5% more votes... He is in no way stronger than Haley or Graham (although I think personally he is obviously strong than Trump... but I'm sure other may disagree).

[BuckeyeNut]

What I want to know is if we can win the SC SOS race. Melvin Whittenburg seems like a good candidate.

[Zaybay]

Actually, Scott doesnt get that much crossover from Black Dems. He preforms the same as any other Generic R on the state level.

Actually  this is incorrect... He always finishes 5% higher than other Republicans

(ie 5pt higher than Trump in 2016 .... 5pts higher than Graham in 2014 who was also running for Senate that year... as well as 5pts better than Haley who was running statewide in 2014.   This also seems to bare out when you look a several high African American population counties.  There isn't much good exit poll data to go on .. especially that would be accurate w/in 5%- but raw vote total seem to indicate Scott always gets 5% higher vote totals than every other statewide Republican.....  its also hard to factor what percent of crossover Black vote he would get if he was the only Black candidate on the ballot (both of his 1st 2 senate elections he faced an African American as the Dem candidate).

Haley and Lindsey were rather poor candidates, though Haley has defiantly improved since her job promotion. Lindsey suffers from a lackluster approval from the state, and is sort of always destined to win by low margins.

There have been many studies that show that the ethnicity of a candidate, such as AA, does not effect the way a person would vote. AAs will usually vote for the Democrat, even if they are white, and the R is Black. Its actually more pronounced with the gender of the candidate, considering the D base is mostly female and the R base is mostly male.

It probably varies by state & region... but in South Carolina & most of North Carolina the overall studies you noted ... do not hold true.  And there are perfectly valid reasons for such votes in the rural south (which describes almost all of SC & most of NC).  I grew up in this area and at least anecdotally from those I know and talk to- minorities are more likely to vote for a minority on the ballot... and as I said above- imo there are very valid reasons to do so.

Regarding Tim Scott always getting 5% more votes... He is in no way stronger than Haley or Graham (although I think personally he is obviously strong than Trump... but I'm sure other may disagree).

Maybe its different depending on the area. Nationwide, its negligible, a 2% shift, but that being 5% in some parts of the south could be true.

[SCNCmod]

Maybe its different depending on the area. Nationwide, its negligible, a 2% shift, but that being 5% in some parts of the south could be true.

I definitely agree it is probably very negligible at best in most parts of the country.

[SCNCmod]

What I want to know is if we can win the SC SOS race. Melvin Whittenburg seems like a good candidate.

I actually do not know much about the SOS race- but I will say it is usually very hard for a Dem to win a down ballot race in SC, especially if neither candidate has an extraordinary amount of notoriety.   Where as I feel like some republicans may cross vote in big races like Gov if there is a candidate many see as sub-par.... for the rest of the ticket I feel like Republicans tend not to have strong opinions on either, so they just vote for the Republican...(at least thats the sense I get- although have never looked at data etc)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

No

[Del Tachi]

Smith is also apparently good friends with Joe Biden, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden come down to SC to campaign with him.

I think this will be the sleeper race of the year.  If the Dems have an exceptionally good year in gubernatorial races (like the GOP did in 2014), I think this domino will definitely fall, and probably before states like KS and OK. 

[South Dakota Democrat]

Smith is also apparently good friends with Joe Biden, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden come down to SC to campaign with him.

I think this will be the sleeper race of the year.  If the Dems have an exceptionally good year in gubernatorial races (like the GOP did in 2014), I think this domino will definitely fall, and probably before states like KS and OK. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems have a better shot in AZ for an upset

[Doimper]

No

A+ contribution

[Doimper]

Smith is also apparently good friends with Joe Biden, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Biden come down to SC to campaign with him.

I think this will be the sleeper race of the year.  If the Dems have an exceptionally good year in gubernatorial races (like the GOP did in 2014), I think this domino will definitely fall, and probably before states like KS and OK. 

I can’t remember a time when this many incumbent governors were struggling so much. AZ, IA, IL, WI, AK, HI, KS, RI, SC are all pretty vulnerable either in generals or primaries. And Hogan might lose anyway just because he’s in such a blue inelastic state. Only one incumbent lost in the 2006 wave. 3 in 2014. 2 in 2010.

It's sort of infuriating that Democrats would have an outside shot at taking every governorship on the Eastern Seaboard were it not for, of all states, Massachusetts.