SC GOV 2018- megathread... James Smith (D) vs Henry McMaster (R)

[libertpaulian]

Do we have any good polling coming out of the state?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Do we have any good polling coming out of the state?

Not that I know of

Should I make a megathread or should this be it?

[libertpaulian]

Eh, we already have two pages of discussion.  I think this qualifies as a megathread.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I'm not really familiar with either race.  What I do know is (A) South Carolina is more Democratic than its reputation, and (B) McMaster is viewed as something of a dullard.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

OP can you change the name so this is a megathread now

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

James Smith will upset McMaster

[Podgy the Bear]

It wouldn't be the biggest upset in the world.  I think we'll have to wait until October to see if there is a real trend.  The Democrats run fairly strong in the state (Vincent Sheheen pulled 47% in the disastrous year of 2010) and Smith fits in rather well with the electorate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The blue wave can sweep Edmonston and K Dean into office and Molly Kelly and have blue state govs like Reynolds and Hogan remain

[IceSpear]

It wouldn't be the biggest upset in the world.  I think we'll have to wait until October to see if there is a real trend.  The Democrats run fairly strong in the state (Vincent Sheheen pulled 47% in the disastrous year of 2010) and Smith fits in rather well with the electorate.

Only because of Nimrata Randhawa.

[SCNCmod]

OP can you change the name so this is a megathread now

Just did- Let me know if I did not title it correctly for a MegaThread

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Smith may be disqualified due to a failed attempt at a fusion ticket. He tried to get the nominations of the Working Familes, Greens, and Libertarians. He later withdrew these before they could vote, but the Libertarians still voted on his nomination and voted him down. Due to the fact SC has a sore loser law, this means that under a certain interpretation, he can not run under the D nomination due to the fact the Libertarians rejected him. Although the SC electoral commission says he's fine, he could still be forced off the ballot if he's challenged in court about it and loses.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article216719320.html

[Zaybay]

Smith may be disqualified due to a failed attempt at a fusion ticket. He tried to get the nominations of the Working Familes, Greens, and Libertarians. He later withdrew these before they could vote, but the Libertarians still voted on his nomination and voted him down. Due to the fact SC has a sore loser law, this means that under a certain interpretation, he can not run under the D nomination due to the fact the Libertarians rejected him. Although the SC electoral commission says he's fine, he could still be forced off the ballot if he's challenged in court about it and loses.

https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article216719320.html

That is incredibly worrying, but I doubt it goes anywhere.

[tmthforu94]

An unwanted distraction for his campaign.

[SCNCmod]

A sore loser law would not apply since he won the Dem nom the same time he lost the libertarian nom (I assuming they were voted on the same day).

[libertpaulian]

Honestly, this will just be like the Stacey Abrams debt thing or the Trump "grab 'em" tapes...just a distraction.

[SCNCmod]

If James Smith cannot beat Henry McMaster ... Dems will not have a prayer at winning Governorship for a long time to come!

[libertpaulian]

If James Smith cannot beat Henry McMaster ... Dems will not have a prayer at winning Governorship for a long time to come!

WHY the hell aren't there any polls?!

[IceSpear]

If James Smith cannot beat Henry McMaster ... Dems will not have a prayer at winning Governorship for a long time to come!

WHY the hell aren't there any polls?!

Polling volume in general has been extremely low this year, particularly for races that aren't seen as competitive. It's been declining for a while, but I think the upset in 2016 took yet another hatchet to the polling industry, even though the polls weren't actually as far off in the end as it seemed they were initially.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Recent D internal shows McMaster up by 4, although to be honest this isn't very helpful.

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/democrat-moves-to-center-in-south-carolina-governor-s-race/article_efeeaacc-a551-11e8-b288-cf9f194b038c.html

McMaster 47
Smith 43

this is the only poll we have right now.

[libertpaulian]

Recent D internal shows McMaster up by 4, although to be honest this isn't very helpful.

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/democrat-moves-to-center-in-south-carolina-governor-s-race/article_efeeaacc-a551-11e8-b288-cf9f194b038c.html

McMaster 47
Smith 43

this is the only poll we have right now.

What does it feel like on the ground?

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Recent D internal shows McMaster up by 4, although to be honest this isn't very helpful.

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/democrat-moves-to-center-in-south-carolina-governor-s-race/article_efeeaacc-a551-11e8-b288-cf9f194b038c.html

McMaster 47
Smith 43

this is the only poll we have right now.

What does it feel like on the ground?

not much happening. Feels like McMaster is doing alright up here, but I've definitely seen more signs for Smith than McMaster, mostly in Greenville. I'm considering doing door-to-door with my parents like we did with Bernie.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The RGA has put out an internal poll showing James Smith well, behind, but haven't showed the other purple states that GOP are struggling in.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Alright, i'm gonna average the two internals and we can see a (half decent) look at the race.

McMaster 49.5%
Smith 42%

A gap of 7.5 is hard to make up in SC, but it is possible. Still Lean R.

Also reminder large amounts of polls showed Shaheen behind by 10 and he lost by 4.5.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

From the Greenville News, going over statistics from the poll Smith put out...

https://www.greenvilleonline.com/story/news/local/south-carolina/2018/08/22/could-democrat-win-south-carolina-governor-race/1066627002/

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Just reinforcing what I've said all along, that McMaster is boring, uncharismatic, and weak.

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!!!

Yeah, I know this is an internal, but that's pretty good numbers, since if you reduce it by the same margin as the RGA poll does in general, (+3.5 for R's from Smith's poll) That would mean 49.5 McMaster to 47.5 for Smith.

I'll try to find the crosstabs for both polls, but I haven't been successful in doing so thus far.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Pretty terrible statement by McMaster: https://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article217430310.html

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This probably won't sway too many people's votes, but it may galvanize some Dems.

Smith's running mate, Mandy Powers Norell, came up with a pretty snappy counter though.

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This article also gives out name recognition numbers from Smith's poll:

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Oh yeah, and he said this while campaigning for Jeff Duncan, my POS congressman.