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News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  WV-Trafalgar Group: Manchin +10
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Author Topic: WV-Trafalgar Group: Manchin +10  (Read 2025 times)
LimoLiberal
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« on: July 18, 2018, 03:44:52 PM »

https://www.trafalgarstrategy.com/news/wv-senate-poll-july-18/

TFG conducted this survey of 1158 respondents from a random stratified selection of likely 2018 general election voters. The margin of error is +/- 2.88. The results were:

49.9% Joe Manchin (D)
39.5% Patrick Morrisey (R)
2.3%   Rusty Hollen (L)
8.3%    Undecided                             

They also did some weird push poll thing with the Kavanaugh nomination. Not gonna post the numbers, but basically showing that Manchin is more likely to be reelected if he votes to confirm.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2018, 03:48:17 PM »

MANCHIN!!!!!!!!!! Let's go son!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2018, 03:51:55 PM »

Wait, aren't these guys just the fake predictors?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2018, 03:53:10 PM »

Wait, aren't these guys just the fake predictors?

Nah, they were really good in 2016, but have not been great since outside of Republican primaries. They missed bad on VA.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2018, 03:54:10 PM »

Wait, aren't these guys just the fake predictors?

No, they are a Republican polling firm.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2018, 03:55:34 PM »

Oh ok thanks. Yeah, Manchin needs to vote for Kavanaugh, luckily he probably will.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2018, 03:59:23 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2018, 03:59:54 PM »

Imagine how much Morrisey would be destroying Swearingen by lol.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2018, 04:00:30 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

It can when you use it as a leading question in a poll.
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2018, 06:15:31 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

It can when you use it as a leading question in a poll.
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OneJ
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« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2018, 11:38:26 AM »

Why are they asking voters how they would vote if Manchin votes for or against Kavanaugh?
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2018, 01:11:59 PM »

Why are they asking voters how they would vote if Manchin votes for or against Kavanaugh?

Because, at the end of the day, they are still a partisan firm.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2018, 01:42:38 PM »

So why is this race considered so much more competitive than Montana again? Looks like strong candidate Morrisey is doing worse than unelectable joke candidate Matt Rosendale. Republicans probably lost this race when Jenkins lost the primary, but all the GOP hacks told me that Blankenship losing was the only thing that mattered.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2018, 02:26:58 PM »

Plains like Trump, but Tester has done good for Va; its MO and ND that's gonna change party hands, replaced by Rosen & Sinema😁
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Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall
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« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2018, 07:38:31 PM »

Safe BIG DON Blankenship
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2018, 08:08:31 PM »

The thing with Trafalgar is that when they miss, they always overestimate Republicans. So this is actually amazing news for Manchin!
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2018, 01:13:52 AM »

decimals my boi
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2018, 02:03:25 AM »


We gotta ditch Cocaine Mitch.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: July 20, 2018, 05:43:34 AM »

Likely Democratic. I'd say Manchin is about as safe as Sherrod Brown or Bob Casey. He'll win around 54-44% or so. Even RCP now moved the race from toss-up to Lean Democratic.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2018, 06:14:42 AM »

West Virginia was always overrated
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2018, 07:31:55 PM »
« Edited: July 24, 2018, 07:44:49 PM by Progressive Pessimist »


We should have ditched him before he became majority leader. Where were you in 2014 Don!? Think about the children!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: July 23, 2018, 10:07:57 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

He might be looking for an excuse to reject him -- such as the conclusion that the ruling that doomed the Nixon Presidency was wrong. "I supported him until" is an effective way of showing bipartisanship in principle even if there must be exceptions.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #22 on: July 23, 2018, 11:41:25 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

He might be looking for an excuse to reject him -- such as the conclusion that the ruling that doomed the Nixon Presidency was wrong. "I supported him until" is an effective way of showing bipartisanship in principle even if there must be exceptions.

Manchin I swear... you better vote for Kavanaugh! We aint losin ya buddy!
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2018, 03:27:05 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

He might be looking for an excuse to reject him -- such as the conclusion that the ruling that doomed the Nixon Presidency was wrong. "I supported him until" is an effective way of showing bipartisanship in principle even if there must be exceptions.

Manchin I swear... you better vote for Kavanaugh! We aint losin ya buddy!

Sure, because it's totally worth having a Democrat in the Senate who doesn't vote with the Democrats when it counts.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #24 on: July 25, 2018, 03:42:41 PM »

I doubt a single SCOTUS vote will cause that huge a swing.

He might be looking for an excuse to reject him -- such as the conclusion that the ruling that doomed the Nixon Presidency was wrong. "I supported him until" is an effective way of showing bipartisanship in principle even if there must be exceptions.

Manchin I swear... you better vote for Kavanaugh! We aint losin ya buddy!

Sure, because it's totally worth having a Democrat in the Senate who doesn't vote with the Democrats when it counts.

Would you rather have someone who votes with your party 40% of the time, or someone who votes with your party 3% of the time? That's the difference between Manchin and Generic Republican. Morrisey is Generic Republican. Therefore, if I were a Democrat, I would be expressing my support for Manchin as well.
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