Russia and China go to war... who wins?

[Blue3]

Russia and China go to war... who wins?

China wants to claim Asian Russia for living space and resources for its huge population, and become the clear dominant power in Asia. Russia knows this and fears this. One of them strikes first, either Russia out of fear or China out of impatience.

Let's say the US and Europe sit this out (maybe they're even the ones who instigated it).

Both have nuclear weapons... but Russia has many orders of magnitude more than China. And the potential for nuclear use doesn't mean they will actually be used.

Would both be wrecked, making the US and Europe more powerful and unopposed than ever? Or would there be a clear winner?

[Kingpoleon]

India sides with Russia, Pakistan sides with China, and Iran makes a lot of money selling weapons to its allies in Pakistan and Russia.

[Former President tack50]

Nobody because nukes start flying and there's a nuclear winter.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think both sides realize the costs would exceed potential gains, so it's hard to see why a war would begin. Russia would probably "win" a fight today but by 2030 I think the edge will be with China.  So much of Siberia is sparsely settled that there's no real depth available. While it would take China time to occupy Siberia, they should be able to push the Russians back to the Urals.

The above assumes everyone else stays neutral.  If others get involved, China's achille's heel would be oil while Russia's is the threat of a two front war.

[Bismarck]

China would win without Nukes. Russia is declining. Wouldn’t mind seeing this. The Chinese are bad but Russia is just plain evil and always has been.

[dead0man]

I think both sides realize the costs would exceed potential gains, so it's hard to see why a war would begin. Russia would probably "win" a fight today but by 2030 I think the edge will be with China.  So much of Siberia is sparsely settled that there's no real depth available. While it would take China time to occupy Siberia, they should be able to push the Russians back to the Urals.

The above assumes everyone else stays neutral.  If others get involved, China's achille's heel would be oil while Russia's is the threat of a two front war.

I agree with this.

[Cory]

The entire Russian surface fleet (Pacific) in any meaningful form is sunk by a combination of Chinese naval forces and land-based aircraft & surface-to-surface conventional missiles. China would invade Siberia from Manchuria and smash Russian conventional forces until the Russians use several tactical nuclear weapons to wipe out the main Chinese spearheads.

Russia and China would then make a bitter peace because Russia's superior nuclear capacity and quantity means they could wipe out Chinese civilization in a week. China's conventional superiority means the Russians will be forced to eventually pursue this option if the war continues, so both sides see reason. Mongolia, having enacted staunch neutrality (ignoring minor airspace violations, but still) likely hosts peace talks.

The war ends in a stalemate with pre-war borders. Both economies are devastated and the world economy enters into a deep recession. The war itself lasts maybe a month or so.

The USA, India, and "Europe" are the real winners in the whole ordeal.

[Lachi]

If it is a nuclear war, the Southern hemisphere wins.

If it isn't, I'd lean Russia.

[dead0man]

The entire Russian surface fleet (Pacific) in any meaningful form is sunk by a combination of Chinese naval forces and land-based aircraft & surface-to-surface conventional missiles. China would invade Siberia from Manchuria and smash Russian conventional forces until the Russians use several tactical nuclear weapons to wipe out the main Chinese spearheads.

Russia and China would then make a bitter peace because Russia's superior nuclear capacity and quantity means they could wipe out Chinese civilization in a week. China's conventional superiority means the Russians will be forced to eventually pursue this option if the war continues, so both sides see reason. Mongolia, having enacted staunch neutrality (ignoring minor airspace violations, but still) likely hosts peace talks.

The war ends in a stalemate with pre-war borders. Both economies are devastated and the world economy enters into a deep recession. The war itself lasts maybe a month or so.

The USA, India, and "Europe" are the real winners in the whole ordeal.

The PRC have not fought a war since 1979 and they lost that one to the Vietnamese.  Their tech is mostly sketchy knockoffs.  They don't train as much the Russians.  Their gear has not (for the most part, and certainly not by them) seen combat and neither have their men.  They've already pissed off almost all of the countries around them, not to mention the very large internal problems they have.



The PRC might not be a paper tiger, but the evidence for it is all over the place.

[Beet]

Anyone who harbors a hatred for Russia and China wins. In other words U.S. Democrats. At least they can win something in this scenario.

[Tintrlvr]

China decisively wins a short war in which Russia withdraws from the Russian Far East (ceded to China) to protect the rest of its interests, and neither side uses nukes or seriously considers doing so because the Russian Far East isn't worth enough to Russia to justify the risks and likely damage attendant to doing so. China maybe also annexes Mongolia in the process, merely out of convenience.

[Senator-elect Spark]

China, due to them out pacing Russia economically and having a geographical advantage.

[Santander]

China would win without Nukes. Russia is declining. Wouldn’t mind seeing this. The Chinese are bad but Russia is just plain evil and always has been.

You have the two countries reversed.

[HisGrace]

China probably wins if Russia doesn't go nuclear, although I could see there being a negotiated stalemate too. Both countries economies are destroyed though and the "China world domination timeline" is set back indefinitely.

[Absolution9]

Assuming no nukes used I would say a stalemate.  Aside from Vladivostok the nearest major Russian city is over 400 miles from the Chinese border.  I doubt the PLA's ability to advance that far through extremely difficult terrain with few roads in the face of entrenched Russian defensive positions and massed stand-off missile fire.  It would be a nightmare to supply the attacking force and if they are caught in the Siberian winter it would make what the Wehrmacht faced in 1941 look like child's play.  The average overnight low around Irkutsk in Jan is -7F vs 16F in Moscow.  There are many nights per winter when the temp drops below -30F.

Even Vladivostok which is close to the border would be extremely difficult to take.  Its a heavily fortified city situated on a peninsula surrounded on all sides by rugged mountains.  Winter temps also are much colder than Moscow there.  It would be the mother of all sieges.

The Russians would have little ability to invade China, of course, but non-nuclear ballistic and cruise missile attacks would take a toll on the Chinese mainland.

This war will never happen though.  China has no reason to try to conquer Siberia and can get all its resources through trade/investment with/in Russia.  Russia and China are getting more friendly not moving toward war.

 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Russia has declined so much and China has risen so fast since the end of the Cold War. The USSR would have curb stomped the Chinese up until the 1980's. Putin must be seething, knowing he is the junior partner in any Russian-Chinese dealings.