Why do political analysts so often use total population instead of CVAP?
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  Why do political analysts so often use total population instead of CVAP?
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Author Topic: Why do political analysts so often use total population instead of CVAP?  (Read 890 times)
David T
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« on: July 15, 2018, 12:14:56 AM »

One thing that annoys me about much political analysis is the use of the demographic characteristics of the total population of a state or congressional district. Surely what is relevant for electoral analysis is the demography of eligible voters. It therefore makes much more sense to use the CVAP (citizen voting age population). (Admittedly, even that is imperfect: for example it does not take into account the disfranchisement of felons, but it is still a much better guide to eligible voters than using total-population figures could ever be.)

If it were really that difficult to find the CVAP for congressional districts, there might be some excuse, but in fact such figures are readily available for the 115th Congress: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RhiFHMsETYQuWjvHfJgEQGvYhUjumQVtejP8KAcqoCE/edit#gid=1241347791  See https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/5/24/1766053/-A-district-s-total-population-and-eligible-voter-demographics-can-vary-wildly-Here-s-how-to-tell?_=2018-05-24T15:09:11.578-07:00 for an explanation.

An example of why this matters: Some people are trying to explain (or explain away?) Ocasio-Cortez's victory by saying "well, she's a Latina and the district is half Latino/Latina." But actually while the total population of NY-14 is 49.1% Hispanic, only 39.9 percent of the district's CVAP is. (And she won some non-Hispanic white areas of the district anyway...)
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Torie
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2018, 06:03:24 AM »

Because the data is harder to find, and the "analysts" are pressed for time and/or lazy and/or incompetent?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2018, 07:06:02 AM »

VAP is pretty easy to find in my experience, but yeah CVAP is tricky.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2018, 02:56:08 PM »

CVAP should be available soon after the 2020 census.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2018, 03:32:24 PM »

Because total population is what almost every database available to the public gives us.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #5 on: July 16, 2018, 01:28:04 PM »

The laziness here has to do with the analysis, anyway, not the demographic data.
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