leonard4liberty
Newbie
Posts: 6
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« on: July 12, 2018, 11:23:39 PM » |
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So this scenario, let's just base a theory on the 2018 gubernatorial election in Illinois -- and use the basis of a recent Victory Research poll as the basis for election results in November.
* Democrat J.B. Pritzker wins against incumbent Republican Bruce Rauner by a 15-point margin.
* Libertarian Kash Jackson and Conservative Sam McCann earn 10% and 13% respectively, making both parties recognized by the Secretary of State and the state board of elections as a major party.
* Michael Madigan officially marks 40 years in the Illinois House, 38 as House Speaker.
* McCann and the Conservative Party neither has an official party base or platform nor the resources or cash to run legislative candidates.
* What the Conservative Party doesn't have, the Libertarian Party has had since 2010.
* The game-changer: reduced ballot access restrictions - 500 minimum for Illinois House, 1500 for Illinois Senate (same figures as Democrats and Republicans)
The possible scenarios:
How many Democrats could lose their seats?
How many Republicans could lose their seats?
How many career politicians could lose their seats?
Could enough Democrats lose their seats to ensure Madigan loses power as House speaker?
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