Predict the Bavarian state election (October 2018)

[President Johnson]

I'm pretty sure now the October state election in Bavaria will be the CSU's Armageddon. Seehofer and Söder are less popular than Merkel in the state (yes, in Bavaria, not Germany as a whole) now. The SPD will also suffer a major defeat and end up in fourth place, which is quite disgraceful.

My prediction:

CSU: 36.9%
AfD: 16.3%
Greens: 13.8%
SPD: 11.8%
FDP: 7.7%
Free Voters: 5.4%

The Left: 2.5% (with less than 5%, no entry in the legislature)

There will be a CSU/SPD coalition in the end (the Greens and CSU are not fitting together; this is not Hesse or Baden-Württemberg with a moderate CDU and the pragmatic Green Party wing in charge of the state party).

Markus Söder will survive as minister-president, but Horst Seehofer has to resign as CSU leader after the defeat (maybe stay on as federal interior minister for a while). Alexander Dobrindt will be the new CSU leader but stay in Berlin. If the CSU falls below 36%, Söder probably has to step down entirely similar to Günther Beckstein after the disastrous 2008 election. In this case, I see Ilse Aigner to take his position. She'd certainly be a better MP than him.

[Tender Branson]

37% CSU (-11% compared with 2013)
19% AfD (+19%)
13% SPD (-8%)
12% Greens (+3%)
  6% FW (-3%)
  5% FDP (+2%)
  3% Left (+1%)
  5% Others (-3%)

[President Johnson]

37% CSU (-11% compared with 2013)
19% AfD (+19%)
13% SPD (-8%)
12% Greens (+3%)
  6% FW (-3%)
  5% FDP (+2%)
  3% Left (+1%)
  5% Others (-3%)

19% seems a little high for the AfD. But I'm very sure the CSU will be significantly below 40%.

[Tender Branson]

37% CSU (-11% compared with 2013)
19% AfD (+19%)
13% SPD (-8%)
12% Greens (+3%)
  6% FW (-3%)
  5% FDP (+2%)
  3% Left (+1%)
  5% Others (-3%)

19% seems a little high for the AfD. But I'm very sure the CSU will be significantly below 40%.

No, it's not too high - for several reasons:

* This will be the first state election after the 2015 migrant invasion through Austria/Bavaria, so voters will make their voices heard with a loud bang as a result.

* Experience from the 2015 state election in neighbouring Upper Austria, of which parts once belonged to Bavaria (Innviertel) and where the FPÖ scored a record result in that election (30%) and almost 40% in the Innviertel.

* The CSU collapse (which is almost certain after the recent catastropic government back-and-forth) and the SPD collapse (also certain, when you look at results from state elections from nearby Upper Austria and Salzburg) will be huge drivers for the AfD vote.

* The SPD will only remain *somewhat* stable in Munich (but with small losses), while facing close to double-digit losses in the rural areas. I expect many rural areas with AfD results north of 20%. Munich 10-15%.

* The Greens won't gain that much, because it's Bavaria and they tend to overpoll a bit there.

* While not everything from the SPD losses will go to the AfD and the Greens, the Left can expect to gain 1%, and the FDP a bit from the more liberal CSU-wing. The Free Voters will drop back a bit, with most of their lost support likely going to the AfD or into the non-voter category.

[palandio]

Yes, it's way too high. In the past I have been critical of those who were all too happy to write off the AfD at the first sign and all their wishful thinking. But predicting 19% for the AfD is just letting the angstlust (or even klammheimliche Freude) obfuscate your sight.

In the 2017 general election the Bavarian AfD result (12.4%) was almost the same as the federal AfD result (12.6%). So a good base point is to assume that the AfD in Bavaria is about as strong as in Germany as a whole. The federal election results also give a good proxy for the regional and local variation of the vote.

In recent polls the AfD is at 13%-16.5% federally. The two pollsters that give the highest AfD results (INSA [16.5%] and infratest dimap [16%]) are the ones that have been most "friendly" towards the AfD in the past but of course also the ones that came closest to the true 2017 AfD result.

The AfD was underpolled before the March 2016 state elections and before the 2017 federal elections. On the other hand polls before the state elections in Berlin, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein and Nordrhein-Westfalen had no systematic bias against the AfD.

In my view a possible AfD surge is already priced even into the (state) polling numbers, which see the AfD at 13-14%. That's reasonably close to the federal numbers. Additionally German pollsters are quite quick in getting the right "gauging" of raw numbers when there is enough precedent (here: 2017 federal election in Bavaria + other state elections).

What I think led to the AfD being underestimated in advance of the 2017 federal election was that the immigration issue had seemingly cooled down during most of 2017 (compared to 2016), at least that was the wishful thinking of most journalists and politicians. It became hotter in the weeks before the election because CDU/CSU and SPD ran sh**tty campaigns centered around nothing. Now it's different. The whole immigration and border discussion has been dominating the news for the last weeks and the polls don't show 19% for the AfD.

Finally this time it's not "Vote CSU, get Merkel", but "Vote CSU, get Söder".

[Tender Branson]

palandio, I think the opposite will happen.

Sometimes, there are elections where the right-populist parties underpoll significantly because voters are not telling pollsters their real intent.

This election has all the ingredients for a CSU/SPD catastrophe, which will lead to an AfD result of 18-20% statewide.

The Bavarian voters can prove me wrong of course ...

[palandio]

You could of course be right.

But the thing is that many AfD voters have not been telling pollsters their true intent all the time. Pollsters are already accounting for this and changing their secret sauce after every election.

[Tender Branson]

You could of course be right.

But the thing is that many AfD voters have not been telling pollsters their true intent all the time. Pollsters are already accounting for this and changing their secret sauce after every election.

Yes, but the expected losses from CSU/SPD to the AfD is around 15-20% this time and pollsters can easily miss these 4% that will make it 19%.

[mileslunn]

This would be a shock as its pretty rare for the CSU not get a majority.  Although I suspect they would form a coalition with FDP is possible and if not a Grand or Jamaica coalition then.

[Tintrlvr]

Why do we think CSU-AfD is not a likely post-election coalition? Isn't the CSU much less hostile to the AfD than the CDU?

[mileslunn]

Why do we think CSU-AfD is not a likely post-election coalition? Isn't the CSU much less hostile to the AfD than the CDU?

True although that could hurt the alliance federally and unlike in neighbouring Austria, working with the far right is generally frowned upon in Germany, but possible I guess.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why do we think CSU-AfD is not a likely post-election coalition? Isn't the CSU much less hostile to the AfD than the CDU?

The CSU is very hostile to the AfD because it fears them encroaching on their turf. They do not want to see the party establish itself as a permanent presence.

There is also the problem that the "median voter" in Germany (and Bavaria) dislikes the AfD, even if they dislike the refugees. They're going to need a few years to establish themselves before coalitions are viable.

[Beezer]

There is no way any CDU state branch (or the CSU for that matter) will enter a coalition with the AfD while Merkel is still around. I do think that after she's gone there will inevitably be a push among a number of east German state branches to actually make use of the available center-right majorities instead of creating "everything except the AfD" coalitions but for the time being that won't happen.

My prediction:

CSU 41
AfD 16
Greens 13
SPD 12
FDP 6
Free Voters 6
Left 3

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The big nightmare will be if an East German election gives a result where neither the grand coalition nor a Red-Red have a majority, but both the Greens and the FDP don't get in. That would just lead to an impossible dilemma.

[Lotuslander]

The big nightmare will be if an East German election gives a result where neither the grand coalition nor a Red-Red have a majority, but both the Greens and the FDP don't get in. That would just lead to an impossible dilemma.

May potentially happen in Saxony state election in 2019.

[Former President tack50]

The big nightmare will be if an East German election gives a result where neither the grand coalition nor a Red-Red have a majority, but both the Greens and the FDP don't get in. That would just lead to an impossible dilemma.

May potentially happen in Saxony state election in 2019.

Yup. Apparently it also came extremely close to happening in Saxony-Anhalt in 2016:

CDU: 29.8%
AfD: 24.2%
Linke: 16.3%
SPD: 10.6%
Grüne: 5.2%
FDP: 4.9%

Had Grüne also fallen short of the threshold, there would have been no viable majority other than CDU-AfD, or Linke somehow propping up a CDU government.

[TheSaint250]

CSU: 40.5% (-7.2)
AfD: 15.0% (+15.0)
SPD: 13.0% (-7.6)
Grüne: 12.0% (+3.4)
FW: 6.5% (-2.5)
———————
FDP: 5.0% (+1.7)*
Linke: 2.5%
Other: 4.5% (-4.1)

Rounded to the nearest half-decimal or decimal.

*As the numbers are rounded, the FDP here would qualify for seats, but I believe they will just narrowly fail to reach the 5% necessary to re-enter the Landtag.

[republicanbayer]

My prediction:

CSU: 43.7%
AfD: 15.1%
Greens: 14.8%
SPD: 11.2%
Free Voters: 7.1%

FDP: 4.8%
Left: 1.9%

It seems likely that the CSU will lose its majority. I think that the Free Voters would be the best fit as coalition partners for the CSU. Not only do they have similar positions, but Söder and Aiwanger would get along well. Hubert Aiwanger has even stated that they want to be a part of the next government. Since he is not as popular as he once was, Deputy Prime Minister would be a nice way to finish his career.

For those interested, Civey has a daily polling average for the election. https://app.civey.com/shares/1404

I will probably vote for the CSU. I voted FDP last year, but the economy is not a state issue, so I don't see a reason to vote for them this time. Free Voters would make sense for me too, but I like how Seehofer tried to bring some common sense to Berlin. He obviously failed, the deal with Merkel is ridiculous, but at least he tried. And I hate how these Berlin politicians were upset about the "regional party taking Europe hostage" when all that Seehofer wanted to do was to bring back the rule of law. So I guess I will vote CSU, not because I like them so much (after all they are responsible for the migrant crisis and the leftist economic policies as well), but out of support for them against all these lunatic attacks coming from Günther, Laschet, Stegner, and other out of touch politicians.

[TheSaint250]

Is it more likely than not (despite current polling) that the SPD comes behind the Greens? I just feel like this is one of those things that people are overestimating but will revert to traditional results in end.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Is it more likely than not (despite current polling) that the SPD comes behind the Greens? I just feel like this is one of those things that people are overestimating but will revert to traditional results in end.

According to the latest poll: YES!

Here's the current poll by INSA:

CSU:	36%	(-11.7%)
Greens:	15%	(+6.4%)
AfD:	14%	(+14%)
SPD:	13%	(-7.6%)
FW:	8%	(-1%)
FDP:	6%	(+2.7%)
Left:	3%	(+0.9%)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Here's my prediction:

CSU:	46.5%
AfD:	15%
Greens:	12%
FW:	9.2%
SPD:	7.5%
FDP:	4.9%
Left:	3.0%