Predict your home state races.

[Lachi]

That's like 88 LA races and the 8 LC PR regions.
No thanks, I'm not doing all, but I will predict quite confidently that Daniel Andrews will remain Premier of Victoria with an increased majority.

[PAK Man]

Home state is actually Illinois, but I'll analyze both Iowa and Illinois, just because.

IOWA:
Governor - Kim Reynolds (narrowly)
Secretary of State - Paul Pate (narrowly)
Attorney General - Tom Miller
State Auditor - Mary Mosiman (though Rob Sand is running an excellent campaign)
State Treasurer - Mike Fitzgerald
Secretary of Agriculture - Mike Naig

IA-01 - Abby Finkenauer
IA-02 - Dave Loebsack
IA-03 - David Young (narrowly)
IA-04 - Steve King

ILLINOIS:
Governor - J.B. Pritzker
Attorney General - Kwame Raoul
Secretary of State - Jesse White
State Comptroller - Susana Mendoza
State Treasurer - Mike Frerichs

IL-01 - Bobby Rush
IL-02 - Robin Kelly
IL-03 - Dan Lipinski
IL-04 - Chuy Garcia
IL-05 - Mike Quigley
IL-06 - Peter Roskam
IL-07 - Danny Davis
IL-08 - Raja Krishnamoorthi
IL-09 - Jan Schakowsky
IL-10 - Brad Schneider
IL-11 - Bill Foster
IL-12 - Brendan Kelly
IL-13 - Rodney Davis
IL-14 - Randy Hultgren
IL-15 - John Shimkus
IL-16 - Adam Kinzinger
IL-17 - Cheri Bustos
IL-18 - Darin LaHood

[Antonio the Sixth]

Feinstein wins 70-30 or so, Newsom wins 60-40 or so, Dems pick up Issa's and Denham's seats and maybe one or two others.

[Progressive Pessimist]

NJ Senate: Bob Menendez
NJ-01: Donald Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur
NJ-04: Chris Smith
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Leonard Lance
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne Jr.
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

I'll admit I am the least confident about NJ-03 and NJ-07. They really could go either way. This just my hunch that both GOP incumbents win by very similar narrow margins.

Man, I would love an 11-1 NJ delegation. It's possible, too. All the pieces are there. Van Drew, Kim, Malinowski, and Sherrill are all very good candidates. If the wave is big enough, it might just happen.

I would too. Seeing the current districts backfire on the  Republicans would be wholly satisfying. It's not just possible, it's very possible. I was kind of going with my gut with my ratings but it really might as well be a coin flip.

[mcmikk]

Wisconsin:

Senate: Baldwin (D)
Governor: Evers (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Barnes (D)
Attorney General: Kaul (D)
Secretary of State: LaFollette (D)
Treasurer: Godlewski (D)

WI-01: Steil (R)
WI-02: Pocan (D)
WI-03: Kind (D)
WI-04: Moore (D)
WI-05: Sensenbrenner (R)
WI-06: Kohl (D)
WI-07: Duffy (R)
WI-08: Gallagher

State Senate: Narrow D control
State Assembly: R control

[wesmoorenerd]

Wisconsin:

Senate: Baldwin (D)
Governor: Evers (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Barnes (D)
Attorney General: Kaul (D)
Secretary of State: LaFollette (D)
Treasurer: Godlewski (D)

WI-01: Steil (R)
WI-02: Pocan (D)
WI-03: Kind (D)
WI-04: Moore (D)
WI-05: Sensenbrenner (R)
WI-06: Kohl (D)
WI-07: Duffy (R)
WI-08: Gallagher

State Senate: Narrow D control
State Assembly: R control

Interesting... I don't really see Kohl winning and Bryce (let's face it, he's going to be the nominee) losing.

[Suburbia]

New Jersey:

Senate: Bob Menendez (D) 56%** (Retirement watch)
NJ-01: Norcross (D) 81%
NJ-02: Van Drew (D) 56% (D Gain)
NJ-03: MacArthur (R) 52%
NJ-04: Chris Smith (R) 54%
NJ-05: Gottheimer (D) 60%
NJ-06: Pallone (D) 69%
NJ-07: Lance (R) 52%
NJ-08: Sires (D) 96%
NJ-09: Pascrell (D) 81%** (Retirement watch)
NJ-10: Payne (D) 99%
NJ-11: Webber (R) 53%
NJ-12: Watson Coleman (D) 85%
**Sen. Bob Menendez is still seen as unethical and corrupt. If there is any "September/October surprises" before the election, if Hugin is leading or making the race competitive, Schumer/NJ Dems could replace him like they did with Torricelli in 2002.

**Rep. Bill Pascrell fainted and felt ill on Tuesday in the Northeast heat wave during a press conference. If he is "too old" to run for reelection, NJ Dems could find another replacement.

[LabourJersey]

New Jersey:

Senate: Bob Menendez

NJ-01: Don Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (by a 20 point margin)
NJ-03: Andy Kim (narrowly)
NJ-04: Josh Welle (by some insanely small margin, <1000 votes)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (by a small but decent margin)
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (by a decent margin)
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

[Dr. MB]

Governor: Kate Brown by 5 points or so
Labor Commissioner: Val Hoyle

OR-01: Suzanne Bonamici, with between 55 and 60%
OR-02: Greg Walden, by a smaller margin than he is used to however
OR-03: Earl Blumenauer, with 75%
OR-04: Peter DeFazio, with between 55 and 60%
OR-05: Kurt Schrader, between 50 and 55%

The State Senate and House will both remain under D control. Dems will likely gain a couple seats in each chamber.

Jo Ann Hardesty will be elected to the Portland city council.

[Progressive Pessimist]

New Jersey:

Senate: Bob Menendez

NJ-01: Don Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (by a 20 point margin)
NJ-03: Andy Kim (narrowly)
NJ-04: Josh Welle (by some insanely small margin, <1000 votes)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (by a small but decent margin)
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (by a decent margin)
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

You certainly are optimistic. I would love to see this happen.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

New Jersey:

Senate: Bob Menendez

NJ-01: Don Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (by a 20 point margin)
NJ-03: Andy Kim (narrowly)
NJ-04: Josh Welle (by some insanely small margin, <1000 votes)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (by a small but decent margin)
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (by a decent margin)
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

Bruh, that would indicate a wave that would be like 06 size if not bigger.

[Zaybay]

Massachusetts:

Senate: Elizabeth Warren 67-23-10

Governor: Charlie Baker 56-44

All of the MA delegation wins reelection, and no one is primaried out.

[wesmoorenerd]

New Jersey:

Senate: Bob Menendez

NJ-01: Don Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (by a 20 point margin)
NJ-03: Andy Kim (narrowly)
NJ-04: Josh Welle (by some insanely small margin, <1000 votes)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (by a small but decent margin)
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (by a decent margin)
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

Bruh, that would indicate a wave that would be like 06 size if not bigger.

If Chris Smith gets ousted? Wew lad, we're talking about triple digit Dem gains.

[Greatblueheron]

California:

Senate: Diane Feinstein 75-25
Governor: Gavin Newsom 60-40
CA-10: Josh Harder 51-49
CA-21: David Valadao 60-40
CA-25: Katie Hill 52-48
CA-39: Young Kim 53-47
CA-45: Mimi Walters 51-49
CA-48: Dana Rohabacher 52-48
CA-49: Mike Levin 53-47

[MillennialModerate]

Governor: Baker/Polito win 65-35
Senate: Warren wins 65-35

The entire house delegation (all Democrats)  is re-elected.

Auditor: Suzanne Bump
Secretary of State: Josh Zakim
Treasurer: Deb Goldberg
Attorney General: Maura Healey

[Mr. Illini]

ILLINOIS
Governor/Lt Gov: JB Pritzker/Juliana Stratton
Attorney General: Kwame Raoul
Secretary of State: Jesse White
Comptroller: Susana Mendoza
Treasurer: Mike Frerichs
IL-01: Bobby Rush
IL-02: Robin Kelly
IL-03: Dan Lipinski
IL-04: Chuy Garcia
IL-05: Mike Quigley
IL-06: Sean Casten
IL-07: Danny Davis
IL-08: Raja Krishnamoorthi
IL-09: Jan Schakowsky
IL-10: Brad Schneider
IL-11: Bill Foster
IL-12: Mike Bost
IL-13: Rodney Davis
IL-14: Randy Hultgren
IL-15: John Shimkus
IL-16: Adam Kinzinger
IL-17: Cheri Bustos
IL-18: Darin LaHood

Of the four competitive house races: the 6th goes to Casten by about 5 points, Bost holds the 12th by 1-2 points, and Hultgren/Davis hold their respective districts by 3-5 points.

[wesmoorenerd]

ILLINOIS
Governor/Lt Gov: JB Pritzker/Juliana Stratton
Attorney General: Kwame Raoul
Secretary of State: Jesse White
Comptroller: Susana Mendoza
Treasurer: Mike Frerichs
IL-01: Bobby Rush
IL-02: Robin Kelly
IL-03: Dan Lipinski
IL-04: Chuy Garcia
IL-05: Mike Quigley
IL-06: Sean Casten
IL-07: Danny Davis
IL-08: Raja Krishnamoorthi
IL-09: Jan Schakowsky
IL-10: Brad Schneider
IL-11: Bill Foster
IL-12: Mike Bost
IL-13: Rodney Davis
IL-14: Randy Hultgren
IL-15: John Shimkus
IL-16: Adam Kinzinger
IL-17: Cheri Bustos
IL-18: Darin LaHood

Of the four competitive house races: the 6th goes to Casten by about 5 points, Bost holds the 12th by 1-2 points, and Hultgren/Davis hold their respective districts by 3-5 points.

I think Bost is more likely to lose than Roskam tbh

[WMS]

Since no one else is doing it:

New Mexico Governor, Senator, NM-1, NM-3, Secretary of State, Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer: Dem + a zillion
NM-2, Commissioner of Public Lands: Close Dem
New Mexico Legislature: not sure on actual numbers but Dems will certainly control it - actual gains might be low because there's only so many districts left to be taken by the Dems. But perhaps the Dems reach 40 or more in the House, because of the wave and because it's a Dem gerrymander. They might gain one or two Senate seats, because they're really maxing out on those, and because it's a bipartisan incumbent protection gerrymander so the wave doesn't mean as much.
Judiciary: NM will continue its dreadful tradition of partisan elections for judges. Dems will dominate but not have all the lower court judges, but will always somehow magically have all the best-qualified candidates who make it to the State Supreme Court. And the quality of the judicial system will continue to suck.
Public Regulation Commission: Dem dominance of little-noticed but insanely-overpowered entity.
Public Education Commission: who cares about powerless source of patronage jobs?
Local offices: more Dems than Reps, usual variances across the state. Bernalillo County will continue to have 3 Dem and 2 Rep County Commissioners because that is how the lines have been and always will be drawn. Officially non-partisan boards won't be, per the usual.

In other words, a typical year, maybe a bit more Dem-flavored than usual. And we'll still rank in the bottom of everything. And no, the Reps running things wouldn't be any better.

[HarrisonL]

Race, Candidate, Party, estimated % of vote, (I) = Incumbent

NJ Senate: Bob Menendez (I) (D) 54%
NJ-1: Donald Norcross (I) (D) 69%
NJ-2: Jeff Van Drew (D) 59%
NJ-3: Tom MacArthur (I) (R) 51%
NJ-4: Chris Smith (I) (R) 56%
NJ-5: Scott Gottheimer (I) (D) 53%
NJ-6: Frank Pallone (I) (D) 61%
NJ-7: Tom Malinowski (D) 50%
NJ-8: Albio Sires (I) (D) 71%
NJ-9: Bill Pascrell Jr. (I) (D) 75%
NJ-10: Donald Payne Jr. (I) (D) 85%
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D) 52%
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman (I) (D) 63%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Race, Candidate, Party, estimated % of vote, (I) = Incumbent

NJ Senate: Bob Menendez (I) (D) 54%
NJ-1: Donald Norcross (I) (D) 69%
NJ-2: Jeff Van Drew (D) 59%
NJ-3: Tom MacArthur (I) (R) 51%
NJ-4: Chris Smith (I) (R) 56%
NJ-5: Scott Gottheimer (I) (D) 53%
NJ-6: Frank Pallone (I) (D) 61%
NJ-7: Tom Malinowski (D) 50%
NJ-8: Albio Sires (I) (D) 71%
NJ-9: Bill Pascrell Jr. (I) (D) 75%
NJ-10: Donald Payne Jr. (I) (D) 85%
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (D) 52%
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman (I) (D) 63%

Did Scott Garrett trap Josh Gottheimer in a teleportation machine with him and then end up a hybrid monster like in The Fly? Oh wait, Garrett never believed in science. I'm so glad to be rid of that guy.

[Mr. Illini]

ILLINOIS
Governor/Lt Gov: JB Pritzker/Juliana Stratton
Attorney General: Kwame Raoul
Secretary of State: Jesse White
Comptroller: Susana Mendoza
Treasurer: Mike Frerichs
IL-01: Bobby Rush
IL-02: Robin Kelly
IL-03: Dan Lipinski
IL-04: Chuy Garcia
IL-05: Mike Quigley
IL-06: Sean Casten
IL-07: Danny Davis
IL-08: Raja Krishnamoorthi
IL-09: Jan Schakowsky
IL-10: Brad Schneider
IL-11: Bill Foster
IL-12: Mike Bost
IL-13: Rodney Davis
IL-14: Randy Hultgren
IL-15: John Shimkus
IL-16: Adam Kinzinger
IL-17: Cheri Bustos
IL-18: Darin LaHood

Of the four competitive house races: the 6th goes to Casten by about 5 points, Bost holds the 12th by 1-2 points, and Hultgren/Davis hold their respective districts by 3-5 points.

I think Bost is more likely to lose than Roskam tbh

Please explain. Roskam's district is very hostile to the President and is rapidly changing demographically and politically. Bost's district is very supportive of the President. I expect progressive energy to be much higher in IL-6.

The little polling so far that we have confirms this.

[LabourJersey]

New Jersey:

Senate: Bob Menendez

NJ-01: Don Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (by a 20 point margin)
NJ-03: Andy Kim (narrowly)
NJ-04: Josh Welle (by some insanely small margin, <1000 votes)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (by a small but decent margin)
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (by a decent margin)
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

Bruh, that would indicate a wave that would be like 06 size if not bigger.

If Chris Smith gets ousted? Wew lad, we're talking about triple digit Dem gains.

Smith losing is more wishful thinking, but I personally think that major Democratic gains are going to be very much localized. I think Jersey is going to be the epicenter of that wave along with California, New York and a couple other states. NJ-04 is going to be the hardest task, given that it's tied with NY-11 for the being the most pro-Trump district in the Northeast.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

New Jersey:

Senate: Bob Menendez

NJ-01: Don Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew (by a 20 point margin)
NJ-03: Andy Kim (narrowly)
NJ-04: Josh Welle (by some insanely small margin, <1000 votes)
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Tom Malinowski (by a small but decent margin)
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill (by a decent margin)
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

Bruh, that would indicate a wave that would be like 06 size if not bigger.

If Chris Smith gets ousted? Wew lad, we're talking about triple digit Dem gains.

Smith losing is more wishful thinking, but I personally think that major Democratic gains are going to be very much localized. I think Jersey is going to be the epicenter of that wave along with California, New York and a couple other states. NJ-04 is going to be the hardest task, given that it's tied with NY-11 for the being the most pro-Trump district in the Northeast.

What about NY-27?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NJ Senate: Bob Menendez
NJ-01: Donald Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur
NJ-04: Chris Smith
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Leonard Lance
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne Jr.
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

I'll admit I am the least confident about NJ-03 and NJ-07. They really could go either way. This just my hunch that both GOP incumbents win by very similar narrow margins.

Man, I would love an 11-1 NJ delegation. It's possible, too. All the pieces are there. Van Drew, Kim, Malinowski, and Sherrill are all very good candidates. If the wave is big enough, it might just happen.

I would too. Seeing the current districts backfire on the  Republicans would be wholly satisfying. It's not just possible, it's very possible. I was kind of going with my gut with my ratings but it really might as well be a coin flip.

"Backfire"?

When judging whether a map is a dummymander overall, one must take into account the whole decade, not one election cycle.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Unfortunately (in the case of GA-6 and GA-7), all of our incumbents will win their house races.