Predict your home state races.

[Vern]

Just like the title says. Predict your home state races!

[wesmoorenerd]

MD-Gov: Hogan (he ain't losing)
MD-01: Harris
MD-02: Ruppersberger
MD-03: Sarbanes
MD-04: Brown
MD-05: Hoyer
MD-06: Trone (ugh)
MD-07: Cummings
MD-08: Raskin
MD-Sen: Cardin
State Sen/House: strong D majority in both no matter what
Attorney Gen.: Frosh
Comptroller: Franchot

[Mycool]

VA-Sen: Kaine
VA-01: Wittman
VA-02: Luria (I know people will probably disagree, but Taylor has yet to face a tough race, and with Stewart on the top of the ticket, I wouldn’t underestimate a takeover)
VA-03: Scott
VA-04: McEachin
VA-05: Riggleman (I think this will be closer than it should be. I still think republicans still pull out a win here)
VA-06: Cline
VA-07: Spanberger (see VA-02, plus a strong candidate in the Richmond exurbs)
VA-08: Beyer
VA-09: Griffith
VA-10: Wexton
VA-11: Connolly

[KingSweden]

WA-Sen: Lol
WA-8: Kim Schrier
WA-5: Lisa Brown
WA-3: JHB
WA St Senate: D+2
WA St House: D+5

[100% pro-life no matter what]

All House races are completely safe for the incumbent party in TN.  I'm really not sure who will win the TN-2 nomination, but TN-6 will probably be Judd Matheny and TN-7 should be Mark Green.  TN-SEN will be competitive, but I see Blackburn winning 51-47 or so.  TN-GOV will probably be a 10-15 point win for the Republican nominee, maybe up to 20 depending on how the campaign goes.

[JMT]

Massachusetts:

Governor: Charlie Baker (R)
Lieutenant Governor: Karyn Polito (R)
Auditor: Suzanne Bump (D)
Secretary of State: Josh Zakim (D)
Treasurer: Deb Goldberg (D)
Attorney General: Maura Healey (D)
Senate: Elizabeth Warren (D)

Every US Rep incumbent (all Dems) win renomination and the general election.

Barbara L’Italien wins the Dem primary and general election for the open MA-03 seat.

So incumbents do well. MA-03 obviously is getting a new Rep, and Zakim (secretary of state) will defeat incumbent Bill Galvin in the primary.

[ctrepublican512]

Governor: who on earth knows but (R)
Lieutenant Governor: Erin Stewart (R)
Secretary of State: Denise Merrill (D)
Treasurer: Art Linares (R)
Attorney General: William Tong (D)
Comptroller: Kurt Miller (R)

Senate: Chris Murphy (D)
CT House: tossup, but either majority with 76-82 seats out of 151
CT Senate: 19-21 (R), 17-15 (D)

CD1: John Larson (D)
CD2: Joe Courtney (D)
CD3: Rosa DeLauro (D)
CD4: Jim Himes (D)
CD5: Jahana Hayes (D)

[Pyro]

NY-Gov & NY-LtGov: Andrew Cuomo (ugh) and Kathy Hochul (D) 41%
NY-Comp: Thomas DiNapoli (D) 66%
NY-AG: Letitia James (D) 61%
NY St Sen: D+4
NY Assembly: D+2

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) 76%

NY-1: Lee Zeldin (R) R+2
NY-2: Peter King (R) R+7
NY-3: Tom Suozzi (D) 58%
NY-4: Kathleen Rice (D) 60%
NY-5: Gregory Meeks (D) 88%
NY-6: Grace Meng (D) 63%
NY-7: Nydia Velazquez (D) 94%
NY-8: Hakeem Jaffries (D) 90%
NY-9: Yvette Clarke (D) 90%
NY-10: Jerrold Nadler (D) 70%
NY-11: Dan Donovan (R) R+5
NY-12: Carolyn Maloney (D) 81%
NY-13: Adriano Espaillat (D) 91%
NY-14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez!! (D) 85%
NY-15: Jose Serrano (D) 98%
NY-16: Eliot Engel (D) 72%
NY-17: Nita Lowey (D) 75%
NY-18: Sean Maloney (D) 58%
NY-19: Antonio Delgado (D) D+4
NY-20: Paul Tonko (D) 68%
NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R) 58%
NY-22: Anthony Brindisi (D) D+4
NY-23: Tom Reed (R) R+3
NY-24: Dana Balter (D) D+1
NY-25: Joseph Morelle (D) 62%
NY-26: Brian Higgins (D) 57%
NY-27: Chris Collins (R) 63%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

NY-Gov & NY-LtGov: Andrew Cuomo (ugh) and Kathy Hochul (D) +15
NY-Comp: Thomas DiNapoli (D) +17
NY-AG: Letitia James (D) + 20
NY St Sen: D+4
NY Assembly: D+2

NY-Sen: Kirsten Gillibrand (D) +40

NY-1: Lee Zeldin (R) +2
NY-2: Peter King (R) +7
NY-3: Tom Suozzi (D) +17
NY-4: Kathleen Rice (D) +28
NY-5: Gregory Meeks (D) +88
NY-6: Grace Meng (D) +63
NY-7: Nydia Velazquez (D) +94
NY-8: Hakeem Jaffries (D) +90
NY-9: Yvette Clarke (D) +90
NY-10: Jerrold Nadler (D) +70
NY-11: Dan Donovan (R) +5
NY-12: Carolyn Maloney (D) +81
NY-13: Adriano Espaillat (D) +91
NY-14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez!! (D) +85
NY-15: Jose Serrano (D) +98
NY-16: Eliot Engel (D) +72
NY-17: Nita Lowey (D) +75
NY-18: Sean Maloney (D) +19
NY-19: Antonio Delgado (D) +4
NY-20: Paul Tonko (D) +46
NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R) +13
NY-22: Anthony Brindisi (D) +4
NY-23: Tom Reed (R) +3
NY-24: Dana Balter (D) +1
NY-25: Joseph Morelle (D) +25
NY-26: Brian Higgins (D) +57
NY-27: Chris Collins (R) +13

Not by that much lol.

[Pyro]

snip

Not by that much lol.

Oop, meant 85%

[Jeppe]

VA-Sen: Tim Kaine (D) beats Corey Stewart 60% to 34%

VA-01: Rob Wittman (R) beats Vangie Williams (D) 54% to 46%
VA-02: Elaine Luria (D) beats Scott Taylor (R) 51% to 49%
VA-03: Bobby Scott (D) wins uncontested
VA-04: Donald McEachin (D) beats Ryan McAdams (R) 64% to 36%
VA-05: Denver Riggleman (R) beats Leslie Cockburn (D) 52% to 48%
VA-06: Ben Cline (R) beats Jennifer Lewis (D) 57% to 43%
VA-07: Abigail Spanberger (D) beats Dave Brat (R) 53% to 47%
VA-08: Don Beyer (D) beats Thomas Oh (R) 78% to 22%
VA-09: Morgan Griffith (R) beats Anthony Flaccavento (D) 62% to 38%
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton (D) beats Barbara Comstock (R) 56% to 44%
VA-11: Gerry Connelly (D) beats Jeff Dove (R) 72% to 28%

[Xing]

WA-SEN: Cantwell
WA-01: Delbene
WA-02: Larsen
WA-03: Herrera Beutler
WA-04: Newhouse
WA-05: McMorris Rodgers (I would LOVE to be wrong about this and see her go, but I just don't see the votes there for Lisa Brown. She'll keep this close, though)
WA-06: Kilmer
WA-07: Jayapal
WA-08: Schrier (D Gain, I'm going to love seeing Rossi lose again)
WA-09: Smith
WA-10: Heck

[Ohioguy29]

I went ahead and chose somebody in every race, but some of them are really pure tossups imo. These are all very tentative predictions. I could see Ohio Dems winning a couple of the races I predicted for Republicans, but I have no idea which ones.

Federal:
OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown (D)
OH-1: Aftab Pureval (D) (this is "logically" a tossup, but I think Aftab wil win)
OH-2: Brad Wenstrup (R)
OH-3: Joyce Beatty (D)
OH-4: Jim Jordan (R)
OH-5: Bob Latta (R)
OH-6: Bill Johnson (R)
OH-7: Bob Gibbs (R)
OH-8: Warren Davidson (R)
OH-9: Marcy Kaptur (D)
OH-10: Mike Turner (R)
OH-11: Marcia Fudge (D)
OH-12: Danny O'Connor (D) (could see this one going either way easily though; I'd say tossup but I could be wrong)
OH-13: Tim Ryan (D)
OH-14: Dave Joyce (R)
OH-15: Steve Stivers (R)
OH-16: Anthony Gonzalez (R)

State:
Governor: Rich Cordray (D) (really just a tossup at this point, all the statewide races are pretty close really)
AG: Steve Dettelbach (D)
Auditor: Zack Space (D) (this is the state race I feel most confident about us winning)
SoS: Kathleen Clyde (D)
Treasurer: Robert Sprague (R)

[LimoLiberal]

VA:
Senate: Kaine (D) 57%
VA-01: Wittman (R) 58%
VA-02: Taylor (R) 52% (Lean R)
VA-03: Scott (D) by a lot
VA-04: McEachin (D) by a lot
VA-05: Riggleman (R) 55% (Likely R)
VA-06: Cline (R) 61%
VA-07: Brat (R) 50% (true tossup race)
VA-08: Beyer (D) by a lot
VA-09: Griffith (R) 65%
VA-10: Wexton (D) 53% (Lean D)
VA-11: Connolly (D) by a lot

Nothing else on the ballot, really.

[Rhenna]

Live in both AR and LA

AR-GOV: Henderson 51-49 Hutchinson 63-37
AR-01: Crawford landslide
AR-02: Hill 52-48
AR-03: Womack landslide
AR-04: Westerman by 15-20
Griffin, Rutledge, and Thurston get re-elected or elected.

LA-GOV (2019): Edwards will beat Abraham, Nungesser, and Landry, lose to Scalise and Kennedy.
LA-01: Scalise landslide
LA-02: Richmond landslide
LA-03: Higgins landslide
LA-04: Johnson landslide
LA-05: Abraham landslide
LA-06: Graves landslide

Very boring house districts in AR/LA. Only one competitive district. I wish my home D's of LA-04 and AR-04 would be more competitive.

[Maxwell]

The quality of the Democratic candidates for statewide office vary wildly from good (Cox, Edmondson) to pretty okay (Fred Dorrell) to bad/horrible fit for the state as a whole (Anastasia Pittman is a state senator from OKC who will absolutely alienate everyone who lives in rural areas that Oklahoma Dems typically need to win). This field is substantially better than 2014 when we ran, like, three candidates for statewide office and only two of them serious (Dorman and Cox).

OK-GOV: Kevin Stitt (R) - 50-46
OK-LT GOV: Matt Pinnell (R) - 63-37
OK-AG: Genter Drummond (R) - 56-42
OK-Treasurer: Randy McDaniel (R) - 58-41
OK-Auditor: Cindy Byrd (R) - 58-40
OK-Superintendent: John Cox (D) - 49.5-49
OK-Insurance Commissioner - Glen Mulready (R) - 57-42
OK-Labor Commissioner - Cathy Costello (R) - 55-43

OK-1: Tim Harris (R) - 55-44
OK-2: Markwayne Mullin (R) - 70-29
OK-3: Frank Lucas (R) - 73-27
OK-4: Tom Cole (R) - 68-29
OK-5: Probably Steve Russel (R) - 51-46

I feel like Dems might get decent gains in the state senate and then double digit gains in the state house. That being said, definitely not enough to take control but probably enough to break the super-majority.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Sen: Brown +8, Gov: Cordray, +2 all house races are holds (Only close race OH-1, R+2). AG: Dettelbach???, SoS: Clyde, Trsr: Richardson, Aud: Space.

Not knowledgeable enough to talk about the State House!

[redjohn]

Governor: A Democrat (D)
Lieutenant Governor: Barnes (D)
Secretary of State: La Follette (D)
State Treasurer: A Democrat (D)
Senator: Baldwin (D)

WI-01: Bryce (D)
WI-02: Pocan (D)
WI-03: Kind (D)
WI-04: Moore (D)
WI-05: Sensenbrenner (R)
WI-06: Grothman (R)
WI-07: Duffy (R)
WI-08: Gallagher (R)

None of these House predictions are bold; the only real tossup is WI-01. I've spent the past year being very skeptical that a Democrat could beat Walker, but I'm going to take the leap and say that I think this will be the year he loses. I'm not certain of that prediction because Walker is an *excellent* campaigner and the suburbs will always turn out for him, but the tariffs are really hurting Wisconsin and Walker can't run from the unpopular man who represents his party. I believe that Mahlon Mitchell is a slightly better candidate than Tony Evers, but no matter which wins the primary I think they'll beat Walker if they stick to the trade/economy message. I also think Baldwin is going to help push the Democrat over the line to beat Walker; she's super personable and will be able to retain the Obama-Trump counties that voted for her in 2012. There aren't going to be many Baldwin/Walker voters, so these two races are very intertwined. It appears that Vukmir has the upper hand in the Republican primary for Senate, which is great news for Baldwin, who won't have too much trouble beating someone as unlikable and nasty as Vukmir. Basically, my prediction is that 2018 is going to be a much-needed year of resurgence for Democrats in Wisconsin.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Govermor: Jealous 52-47
Senator: Cardin 65-31
House: 000 (07-01)
State Senate: D+002 (035-012)
State Delegates: D+011 (102-039)
Attorney General: Frosh
Comptroller: Franchot

[BlueDogs2020]

Illinois;
Pritzker wins by 10
Bost and Roskam both lose narrowly
All other incumbents hold on

[Progressive Pessimist]

NJ Senate: Bob Menendez
NJ-01: Donald Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur
NJ-04: Chris Smith
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Leonard Lance
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne Jr.
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

I'll admit I am the least confident about NJ-03 and NJ-07. They really could go either way. This just my hunch that both GOP incumbents win by very similar narrow margins.

[JGibson]

Statewide:
Gov/Lt. Gov: Pritzker (D)/Stratton (D) [+11.5]
AG: Raoul (D) [+6.3]
SoS: White (D) [+31.0]
Comptroller: Mendoza (D) [+16.7]
Treasurer: Frerichs (D) [+20.2]


House (competitive):
IL-06: Casten (D) [+0.6]
IL-12: Kelly (D) [+1.2]
IL-13: Londrigan (D) [+0.4]
IL-14: Hultgren (R) [+4.1]



State House/Senate:
Dems still maintain majorities in both. Supermajority likely in Senate, possible in House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov race Gavin Newsom
Secretary of State Alex Padilla
AG Xavier Bercerra

[GoldenMainer]

ME-GOV: Mills beats Moody & Hayes 48.5- 46.5- 5

ME-SEN: King beats Brakey & Ringelstein 54.5 - 38 - 7.5

ME01: Pingree beats Holbrook & Grohman 58- 41 - 1

ME02: Golden beats Poliquin 53- 47

ME State Senate: D+4

[wesmoorenerd]

NJ Senate: Bob Menendez
NJ-01: Donald Norcross
NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur
NJ-04: Chris Smith
NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer
NJ-06: Frank Pallone
NJ-07: Leonard Lance
NJ-08: Albio Sires
NJ-09: Bill Pascrell
NJ-10: Donald Payne Jr.
NJ-11: Mikie Sherrill
NJ-12: Bonnie Watson Coleman

I'll admit I am the least confident about NJ-03 and NJ-07. They really could go either way. This just my hunch that both GOP incumbents win by very similar narrow margins.

Man, I would love an 11-1 NJ delegation. It's possible, too. All the pieces are there. Van Drew, Kim, Malinowski, and Sherrill are all very good candidates. If the wave is big enough, it might just happen.