A 2008 election between Dave Freudenthal and Carol Schwartz (perennial DCGOP sacrificial lamb).
I'll pick Freudenthal's VP as Brad Henry (in fact, Oklahoma was the most GOP state in 2008) and Schwartz's as Linda Lingle (Hawaii was the most Dem state and second most Dem jurisdiction).
Ideologically, they're pretty similar – both centrist, Schwartz is a social liberal and would be called a "RINO" by many, leading to an almost certain third-party conservative challenge, for the sake of this however I'll assume there were no other candidates in the race. In fact, Freudenthal is almost surely the more conservative option in this hypothetical election.
Freudenthal/Henry: 351Schwartz/Lingle: 187
