What if marriage equality is overturned?

[MarkD]

The possibility exists that Obergefell v. Hodges could be overturned. How likely do you think that is? And what would be the consequences if it is overturned?
https://www.lgbtqnation.com/2018/06/see-state-will-ban-marriage-equality-supreme-court-turns-right/#.WzZhSwbCNVM.facebook

[KingSweden]

Now that there are so many SSMs in all 50 states I think it’s a logistical nightmare. I find it highly unlikely Obergefell is overturned.

[Sestak]

From Roberts' actions post-Obergefell, I'd say it's much less likely to be overturned than Roe, or Miranda & any of the other due process cases. Most Republicans have pretty much accepted marriage equality as a done deal, and I'd expect Roberts to be the same. They don't have the same drive to overturn it as they do Roe (and will have for Miranda and related cases once Trump applies his "muh pro-police" argument to it).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

You'd have to have a case before it could even begin to be overturned.  Is there really any State that would be willing to rerestrict marriage to heterosexuals so that a case could be brought to SCOTUS?

[mvd10]

Not going to happen, it won't be long before SSM has majority support among Republicans. In a few years we'll probably see Republicans who claim they want to defend gay rights from reactionary foreigners imported by the Democrats .

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

From Roberts' actions post-Obergefell, I'd say it's much less likely to be overturned than Roe, or Miranda & any of the other due process cases. Most Republicans have pretty much accepted marriage equality as a done deal, and I'd expect Roberts to be the same. They don't have the same drive to overturn it as they do Roe (and will have for Miranda and related cases once Trump applies his "muh pro-police" argument to it).

Miranda probably helps police at this point. And is some police department going to ignore it as a policy and jeopardize all their cases just to possibly get a chance to appeal it to the Supreme Court? I don't see any other way to get a case.

[cvparty]

i don't think there would be any serious challenge to obergefell v. hodges at this point
but lmfao @ republicans if it does happen

[Alabama_Indy10]

Not going to happen.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

From Roberts' actions post-Obergefell, I'd say it's much less likely to be overturned than Roe, or Miranda & any of the other due process cases. Most Republicans have pretty much accepted marriage equality as a done deal, and I'd expect Roberts to be the same. They don't have the same drive to overturn it as they do Roe (and will have for Miranda and related cases once Trump applies his "muh pro-police" argument to it).

Miranda probably helps police at this point. And is some police department going to ignore it as a policy and jeopardize all their cases just to possibly get a chance to appeal it to the Supreme Court? I don't see any other way to get a case.

You wouldn't need even an intentional ignoring of Miranda for a case to get to SCOTUS.  All that would be needed would be a prosecutor be willing to appeal having evidence tossed because of Miranda all the way to the Supreme Court. That said, even under the most reaction of courts, at most I'd expect a broadening of the allowed exceptions rather than an outright overturning.

[progressive85]

Invalidating hundreds of thousands of 4-year-old marriages, some of which are elderly husbands or elderly wives at the very end of their lives, would have a backlash so fierce it would probably require the passage of a Marriage Equality Act that enshrines Obergefell into federal law.

My preferred way from the very beginning of dealing with it was a constitutional amendment, and that might be necessary after all.  [Originally, I thought it would take a repeal amendment because I thought George W. Bush's antigay marriage amendment was going to be ratified back in 2004.]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If we end up needing an amendment, its most likely going to be the Child Labor Amendment.  AQt least that one is already before the States and wouldn't take much more to get adopted.

[MarkD]

Invalidating hundreds of thousands of 4-year-old marriages, some of which are elderly husbands or elderly wives at the very end of their lives, would have a backlash so fierce it would probably require the passage of a Marriage Equality Act that enshrines Obergefell into federal law.

My preferred way from the very beginning of dealing with it was a constitutional amendment, and that might be necessary after all.  [Originally, I thought it would take a repeal amendment because I thought George W. Bush's antigay marriage amendment was going to be ratified back in 2004.]

In my signature I talk about adopting an amendment that rewrites Section 1 of the 14th Amendment. Back in Jan. 2014 I drafted a proposal and in its current form it preserves the Obergefell precedent as well as Loving, but I get rid of the idea that marriage is a fundamental right. I aim to preserve Obergefell by writing a clause about sexual orientation equality as a replacement for the current Equal Protection Clause. My proposal is carefully designed to be a set of compromises between conservative and liberal points of view.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

Overturning Obergefell would be a blatantly partisan move with no justification on a settled issue with overwhelming majorities in favor of it. Doing so would shed any pretense of the court as a non partisan institution and would inevitably lead to the Democratic majority packing the courts. John Roberts is not a stupid man. He knows this would happen, and he is not going to overturn it.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It is much easier for the Roberts court to keep screwing us over with right-wing rulings if they let this one stand, so it will stand.

[Meclazine for Israel]

Given the direction of the world on marriage equality, it would be highly unlikely.

And even if it was, the next set of judges would change it back again.

There is clearly a correlation between thoughts on marriage equality and age.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It is much easier for the Roberts court to keep screwing us over with right-wing rulings if they let this one stand, so it will stand.

[BudgieForce]

If a gay marriage case does get to the supreme court, I'd bet they'd just punt it back down to a lower court.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Given the direction of the world on marriage equality, it would be highly unlikely.

And even if it was, the next set of judges would change it back again.

There is clearly a correlation between thoughts on marriage equality and age.

Given that Russia is the world's most important and powerful state, I think they can positively influence some of the failing western states on this issue.

[pbrower2a]

From Roberts' actions post-Obergefell, I'd say it's much less likely to be overturned than Roe, or Miranda & any of the other due process cases. Most Republicans have pretty much accepted marriage equality as a done deal, and I'd expect Roberts to be the same. They don't have the same drive to overturn it as they do Roe (and will have for Miranda and related cases once Trump applies his "muh pro-police" argument to it).

Miranda probably helps police at this point. And is some police department going to ignore it as a policy and jeopardize all their cases just to possibly get a chance to appeal it to the Supreme Court? I don't see any other way to get a case.

The Miranda ruling basically gives the common man who might never expect to be charged the right to remain silent and the right to an attorney that the typical career criminal (let us say a mobster) has long known that he has. People still say stupid things out of anger, a perverse sense of self-righteousness, or an unwise desire to find out what the cops already know. If the suspect still incriminates himself after receiving a Miranda warning, that's his folly and not the fault of the police.

As things now go, the cops usually have far more to go on than the unwise self-incrimination of someone under arrest.

[Senator-elect Spark]

Unlikely to happen. However, abortion is a different story.

[UncleSam]

It is very unlikely to be overturned, Marriage Equality will have majority support among Republicans possibly as soon as 2020. There’s just no way any state brings this before SCOTUS and even if one did, it would lose the case because Roberts respects stare decisis.

There will be FAR more political pressure to overturn or heavily restrict Roe.

[Tekken_Guy]

Unlikely to happen, but if it did, Republicans would be in for a bloodbath.

[morgieb]

Would never happen. Few Republicans seem to be calling for a ban on gay marriage these days unlike abortion.

[Helsinkian]

Invalidating hundreds of thousands of 4-year-old marriages, some of which are elderly husbands or elderly wives at the very end of their lives, would have a backlash so fierce it would probably require the passage of a Marriage Equality Act that enshrines Obergefell into federal law.

Couldn't the existing marriages be grandfathered in, and states be then permitted to ban future marriages only?

[America Needs R'hllor]

Not gonna happen, but if it somehow does we will see fire and fury.