Is the Blue Wave dead?

[TDAS04]

No, option 2, though option 3 is technically correct.

[Pyro]

Unless the replacement is not confirmed prior to the midterms, it will have zero effect on turnout.

[libertpaulian]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

Yeah, just like Breyer’s in ‘94.

The answer is ‘no’.

Breyer was a liberal replacing another liberal.

This n00b will be a potential arch-conservative replacing a center-right conservative.

[wesmoorenerd]

People aren't going to ignore the impact of the tariffs, immigration fiascos, endless scandal, and constant embarrassment on the world stage because of the Supreme Court. The only way I see it hurting Democrats is if they stage an attempt to block whoever is nominated but fail badly, and it remains to be seen whether that'll happen. Either way, the blue wave is most certainly not dead.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

It's  been dead, but many low info GOPers will be hypercharged to vote. 2016 all over again. Game over, Dems.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP will hold their ground in House and Senate. The 60 seat pickup in the House is gone.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The GOP will hold their ground in House and Senate. The 60 seat pickup in the House is gone.

Yep, Kennedy delivered the final death blow to the Dems. We can see GOP enthusiasm matching the likes of 1994 or 2014.

[wesmoorenerd]

The GOP will hold their ground in House and Senate. The 60 seat pickup in the House is gone.

The Democrats were never going to pick up 60 seats. This may hurt the Dems' senate odds, maybe not, but the Dems are still favored to take back the House. Political junkies vastly overestimate how much people pay attention to the SCOTUS outside of "Breaking News" events like this and landmark decisions. I can guarantee you any effect from this will have evaporated within a week unless the Dems grow a spine and band together to block the nominee.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The GOP will hold their ground in House and Senate. The 60 seat pickup in the House is gone.

The Democrats were never going to pick up 60 seats. This may hurt the Dems' senate odds, maybe not, but the Dems are still favored to take back the House. Political junkies vastly overestimate how much people pay attention to the SCOTUS outside of "Breaking News" events like this and landmark decisions. I can guarantee you any effect from this will have evaporated within a week unless the Dems grow a spine and band together to block the nominee.

Odds are, they'll make a quixotic effort to avenge Garland. It's their own fault for nominating Ms. Wall Street and depressing their base.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It goes back to 2000, when Gore lost due to Bill Clinton's shinanegans.  And Kennedy was the deciding vote to put Dubya in WH.

[CookieDamage]

White straight men don't give a deal, but LGBTQ, women who want their reproductive rights, workers and unions, and people who generally care about all of the above are getting scared of what this means. All you red avatars talking about how this isn't important and how people don't care are wrong and showing off their privilege in an ugly way.

[Mr. Smith]

White straight men don't give a deal, but LGBTQ, women who want their reproductive rights, workers and unions, and people who generally care about all of the above are getting scared of what this means. All you red avatars talking about how this isn't important and how people don't care are wrong and showing off their privilege in an ugly way.

Exactly! They're the ones who're going turnout like crazy in a backlash, it already happened in NY-14  and nearly happened in Illinois back in March. It happened in Alabama and PA-08 too.

And just ftr, there were pockets where the left stood up in 2010-2014 to actually fight for Obama, even as the Red Wave rolled, and there will be pockets swayed here too.

But it wont be enough, the super terrified out base always defeats the mildly concerned and semi-elated in-base. The only way the blue wave dies is if Trump has an unusually successful October.

[Hammy]

The GOP will hold their ground in House and Senate. The 60 seat pickup in the House is gone.

The Democrats were never going to pick up 60 seats. This may hurt the Dems' senate odds, maybe not, but the Dems are still favored to take back the House. Political junkies vastly overestimate how much people pay attention to the SCOTUS outside of "Breaking News" events like this and landmark decisions. I can guarantee you any effect from this will have evaporated within a week unless the Dems grow a spine and band together to block the nominee.

Republican voters pay far more attention to it than Democratic voters, so this still hurts the Dems chances in the House by driving GOP voters to the polls more than may have otherwise happened. Only way for Dems to counter this is to make their voters actually care about the courts by making it a campaign issue on their end.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was right after the news broke, Latinos as well as all ethnic groups are energetic about 2018, and want to vote Ryan and McConnell out😀

[Progressive Pessimist]

White straight men don't give a deal, but LGBTQ, women who want their reproductive rights, workers and unions, and people who generally care about all of the above are getting scared of what this means. All you red avatars talking about how this isn't important and how people don't care are wrong and showing off their privilege in an ugly way.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

You guys are acting like the Pundits we continuously mock. This will change nothing. The issues that actually have some effect on the midterms are tarriffs, the economy, and healthcare. These are the issues that motivate the swing voters. Not the supreme court, or gov. shutdowns.

I don't think tariffs have much of an impact on anybody's vote yet. People still don't really know how this whole tariff ordeal will work out or how much it'll impact them.

Maybe by November this will change, but from what I've seen so far in polls, people don't have concrete opinions on whether the tariffs are good or not yet.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

This is a troll thread, right?

This election is going to be Virginia 2017 all over again. There will be approximately 9750 "Are the Dems blowing it?" takes between now and November.

[Dr. Arch]

This is a troll thread, right?

This election is going to be Virginia 2017 all over again. There will be approximately 9750 "Are the Dems blowing it?" takes between now and November.

I still remember the hysteria on the day before that election. It was ridiculous.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Two big factors: Will the trade tariff war kill the economy that has been rallying during Trump's presidency?  That will push moderates and more heavy Dem.

Will the Dems double-down on extremism from the left: Socialist, Cultural Marxist, Oppression Olympics nonsense and pick candidates more like Cortez in NYC? That'll push moderates heavy GOP.

[here2view]

This is a troll thread, right?

This election is going to be Virginia 2017 all over again. There will be approximately 9750 "Are the Dems blowing it?" takes between now and November.

[Zaybay]

Two big factors: Will the trade tariff war kill the economy that has been rallying during Trump's presidency?  That will push moderates and more heavy Dem.

Will the Dems double-down on extremism from the left: Socialist, Cultural Marxist, Oppression Olympics nonsense and pick candidates more like Cortez in NYC? That'll push moderates heavy GOP.

Your first point is valid. Your second is garbage. What even is "Oppression Olympics"? Besides, most of that is center left stuff. Also, its important to point out that policies like free tuition and medicare for all, which are socialist policies, are quite popular, especially in middle America and the Rustbelt, where the Democrats need to regroup. I guess it can hurt them in the sunbelt, but many states are already trending their direction, and the Democrats are a big tent for a reason.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Two big factors: Will the trade tariff war kill the economy that has been rallying during Trump's presidency?  That will push moderates and more heavy Dem.

Will the Dems double-down on extremism from the left: Socialist, Cultural Marxist, Oppression Olympics nonsense and pick candidates more like Cortez in NYC? That'll push moderates heavy GOP.

Your first point is valid. Your second is garbage. What even is "Oppression Olympics"? Besides, most of that is center left stuff. Also, its important to point out that policies like free tuition and medicare for all, which are socialist policies, are quite popular, especially in middle America and the Rustbelt, where the Democrats need to regroup. I guess it can hurt them in the sunbelt, but many states are already trending their direction, and the Democrats are a big tent for a reason.

Oppression Olympics is a term that this game people are playing where a black transgender is more oppressed than a black woman, etc. It's the ultimate divide-and-conquer scheme.

But "free stuff" is great until you people find out they have to pay for it actually in taxes.  And going full socialist? Well then, no one will want to work hard to produce and give most of their earnings away too.

[Calthrina950]

Two big factors: Will the trade tariff war kill the economy that has been rallying during Trump's presidency?  That will push moderates and more heavy Dem.

Will the Dems double-down on extremism from the left: Socialist, Cultural Marxist, Oppression Olympics nonsense and pick candidates more like Cortez in NYC? That'll push moderates heavy GOP.

Your first point is valid. Your second is garbage. What even is "Oppression Olympics"? Besides, most of that is center left stuff. Also, its important to point out that policies like free tuition and medicare for all, which are socialist policies, are quite popular, especially in middle America and the Rustbelt, where the Democrats need to regroup. I guess it can hurt them in the sunbelt, but many states are already trending their direction, and the Democrats are a big tent for a reason.

I'm not opposed to these policies in bold, but my overriding concern about them relates to cost. Our deficit and national debt are in horrendous shape, and we spend too much money on the military and on unnecessary parts of our federal bureaucracy. Any new federal program should come with a thorough and comprehensive plan of how it will be paid for, and we must make sure that all such programs don't exacerbate our country's perilous fiscal situation.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Two big factors: Will the trade tariff war kill the economy that has been rallying during Trump's presidency?  That will push moderates and more heavy Dem.

Will the Dems double-down on extremism from the left: Socialist, Cultural Marxist, Oppression Olympics nonsense and pick candidates more like Cortez in NYC? That'll push moderates heavy GOP.

Your first point is valid. Your second is garbage. What even is "Oppression Olympics"? Besides, most of that is center left stuff. Also, its important to point out that policies like free tuition and medicare for all, which are socialist policies, are quite popular, especially in middle America and the Rustbelt, where the Democrats need to regroup. I guess it can hurt them in the sunbelt, but many states are already trending their direction, and the Democrats are a big tent for a reason.

Oppression Olympics is a term that this game people are playing where a black transgender is more oppressed than a black woman, etc. It's the ultimate divide-and-conquer scheme.

What Democratic candidate has made a campaign issue out of this?