Is the Blue Wave dead?

[libertpaulian]

Given that Justice Kennedy is now retiring from SCOTUS, it's obvious that the dynamics of the midterms have changed, and turnout is going to be historic.

The question is, do you think turnout will favor the GOP candidates or the Dems more?  Or both equally?

You decide.  Vote in the poll!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is a troll thread, right?

[libertpaulian]

No, it's a legitimate poll.

[IceSpear]

It will favor the GOP more, but it alone isn't going to be enough to reverse the multitude of factors working against them.

[136or142]

Yes it is.  All sensible Americans (Democrats) should start planning to leave the United States now and relocate to Canada.  It's not a defeat, it's a strategic withdrawal.

[junior chįmp]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

[OSR stands with Israel]

In the Senate there likely never was going to be a blue wave

[OSR stands with Israel]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

[IceSpear]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

Not that I disagree that Americans are extremely dumb, I'm a frequent proponent of this truism. But you don't need to know their names to know what's at stake.

[BBD]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

The American public at large does not have a good attention span. Who knows what other significant things might pop in the next couple of months.

[OSR stands with Israel]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

The American public at large does not have a good attention span.

Yes but the confirmation will be only 1-2 months before the election not 6-7 months

[junior chįmp]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

Do you honestly think that Trump supporters will be watching it? Yes, I'm sure that the de-evolved cro-magnons  that are Trump supporters will immediately call out of work at their local ditch digging gig to tune into the intellectual questioning of Trump's SCOTUS nominees.

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

Not that I disagree that Americans are extremely dumb, I'm a frequent proponent of this truism. But you don't need to know their names to know what's at stake.

They honestly dont. The vast majority of American voters just sleep walk through life totally unaware of whats at stake. If you told most Trump supporters that ''Kennedy retired from the SCOTUS,'' theyd probably respond: ''JFK wuz on da Supreme Kourt?''

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To many, other issue, they care about than a judge retiring. To many, judges execute the criminal code by putting people in jail. Once a judge makes decisions, the voters will feel it more.

[BBD]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

The American public at large does not have a good attention span.

Yes but the confirmation will be only 1-2 months before the election not 6-7 months

Senator McTurtle's eager to get it done as soon as possible. Even if it happened just a month before the election, there could well be other things that overshadow the confirmation in terms of perceived importance.

[OSR stands with Israel]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

Do you honestly think that Trump supporters will be watching it? Yes, I'm sure that the de-evolved cro-magnons  that are Trump supporters will immediately call out of work at their local ditch digging gig to tune into the intellectual questioning of Trump's SCOTUS nominees.

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

Not that I disagree that Americans are extremely dumb, I'm a frequent proponent of this truism. But you don't need to know their names to know what's at stake.

They honestly dont. The vast majority of American voters just sleep walk through life totally unaware of whats at stake. If you told most Trump supporters that ''Kennedy retired from the SCOTUS,'' theyd probably respond: ''JFK wuz on da Supreme Kourt?''

Again its not Kennedy but the confirmation process will be mentioned throughout the campaign and in Red States that will make the Abortion Issue brought up a lot

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes, unless Democrats decide to start running on impeaching Gorsuch/Thomas/Roberts/whoever Trump nominates to replace Kennedy.

After all, I wouldn't be shocked if Republicans bring impeachment charges against Ginsburg/Sotomayor/Breyer/Kagan.

[136or142]

Of course exit polls aren't perfect but they're better than unsubstantiated opinions

In your vote, were Supreme Court appointments
The most important factor: 21%
An important factor: 48%
A minor factor: 14%
Not a factor at all: 14%

Hillary Clinton did much better relative to Trump with those who said it was either 'a minor factor' or 'not a factor at all.'

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

[Zaybay]

Ive already stated this on multiple threads, but ill try to sum it up
Republican enthusiasm is high. Democratic enthusiasm is higher. Independents are siding with Democrats. Democrats have larger numbers. SC seats dont really get voters out, it just gives them another reason to. The seat will likely be filled before hand. If its not, then they are stupid. It did not save Hillary Clinton in 2016, it will not save the Republicans in 2018. There has never been an example of a SC seat moving an election.

I get it, its big news, but so was the gov. shutdown, and that didnt decrease turnout from democrats. So was the healthcare debacle, and that didnt lower republican turnout. So was the camps, and it already seems like its being forgotten for the new topic of discussion. If the Rs are resorting to the SC seat to drive turnout, that doesnt remedy the problem, but exposes how they have nothing to campaign on. And its just as effective, if not more, for Democrats in the house and senate.

[YE]

Yes, unless Democrats decide to start running on impeaching Gorsuch/Thomas/Roberts/whoever Trump nominates to replace Kennedy.

After all, I wouldn't be shocked if Republicans bring impeachment charges against Ginsburg/Sotomayor/Breyer/Kagan.

What drugs do you take?

[Zaybay]

In the Senate there likely never was going to be a blue wave

from polling so far, there could as well be. All the senators for the dems, save Joe Donnelly and Heidi Heitkamp, are positive in polling averages, and Joe Donnelly is only losing by 1 point in one poll done by Gravis. The three dem challengers in Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee are positive. Even Texas is a mid digit race so far. Its not that far fetched.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Given that Justice Kennedy is now retiring from SCOTUS, it's obvious that the dynamics of the midterms have changed, and turnout is going to be historic.

The question is, do you think turnout will favor the GOP candidates or the Dems more?  Or both equally?

You decide.  Vote in the poll!

This will mobilize religious conservatives; that's for sure.

From a strategic point of view, I suspect that the Democrats stonewalling the nomination MAY backfire.  Holding up the nomination will motivate many Republicans (especially the religious conservatives and 2nd Amendment enthusiasts) to show up in numbers.  If Kennedy's replacement is confirmed with little fanfare, there will be less desperation on the part of the GOP, and a possible tendency toward complacency.  At that point, the election stands a better chance at being something of a referendum on Trump, which is the best strategy for Democrats at this point.

The GOP will ram Kennedy's replacement through.  They have the numbers now.  There is some advantage for the Democrats to quietly let that happen, but they are righteously angry over bottling up Merrick Garland, so I understand why they may find punting here to be unacceptable.

[YE]

Anyone who cares about the court enough was gonna vote anyway.

Though the red state Dems can negate any backlash by simply voting for whatever cretin Trump nominates. It's not like their vote will be consequential anyways. They should do everything it takes to win reelection so as to block any Trump nominees post-midterm.

[junior chįmp]

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

The confirmation will be on the news a lot

Do you honestly think that Trump supporters will be watching it? Yes, I'm sure that the de-evolved cro-magnons  that are Trump supporters will immediately call out of work at their local ditch digging gig to tune into the intellectual questioning of Trump's SCOTUS nominees.

70% of Americans cant name a single SCOTUS justice and only 1% can name all of 9.

Nobody gives a dead mooses last shi*t about Kennedy retiring

Not that I disagree that Americans are extremely dumb, I'm a frequent proponent of this truism. But you don't need to know their names to know what's at stake.

They honestly dont. The vast majority of American voters just sleep walk through life totally unaware of whats at stake. If you told most Trump supporters that ''Kennedy retired from the SCOTUS,'' theyd probably respond: ''JFK wuz on da Supreme Kourt?''

Again its not Kennedy but the confirmation process will be mentioned throughout the campaign and in Red States that will make the Abortion Issue brought up a lot

You have a misunderstanding of how American politics actually work. Nobody cares about the issues...it's all about who activates the tribes in their party but for the most part an existential threat is necessary to motivate your base. Nobody cares about SCOTUS or abortion...the prime motivator for Republicans in 2016 was their insane hatred of Clinton and Obama who many on the right literally though was out to get them and thus posed an existential threat. With both of them gone, you couldn't turn out Republicans if you promised to legalize incest.

Of course exit polls aren't perfect but they're better than unsubstantiated opinions

In your vote, were Supreme Court appointments
The most important factor: 21%
An important factor: 48%
A minor factor: 14%
Not a factor at all: 14%

Hillary Clinton did much better with those who said it was either 'a minor factor' or 'not a factor at all.'

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/national/president

People are lying to the opinion polls. Most Republican voters just took their cues from their party leaders: ''were voting for a Conservative SCOTUS because that's what FOX, and Republican talk radio told us what we were voting for.''

[Alabama_Indy10]

Yes, unless Democrats decide to start running on impeaching Gorsuch/Thomas/Roberts/whoever Trump nominates to replace Kennedy.

After all, I wouldn't be shocked if Republicans bring impeachment charges against Ginsburg/Sotomayor/Breyer/Kagan.

What drugs do you take?

[Dr. Arch]

Yes, unless Democrats decide to start running on impeaching Gorsuch/Thomas/Roberts/whoever Trump nominates to replace Kennedy.

After all, I wouldn't be shocked if Republicans bring impeachment charges against Ginsburg/Sotomayor/Breyer/Kagan.

What drugs do you take?

You think it's beyond the Republican party? Please.